Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dustin Acres, CA

DISCUSSION

Our local resident rex-block continues over the Desert Southwest and California today before it finally breaks and the upper low lifts out into the Southern Plains. The ridge over the Golden State will be shoved to the southeast over the Grand Canyon State by Sunday from a short wave crashing into the PacNW. That short wave trough digs into the Four-Corners region by Tuesday and the ridge returns to California for brief visit.
Then another wave nudges the ridge along progressively to the east. Then mainly zonal flow through Friday before a stronger upper low moves in for next Saturday.

For today, another in the long string of dense Tule fog for the San Joaquin Valley. Lift out has been right around noon therefore the DFA looks on spot. The afternoon clearing allow for another above normal maximum temperature day for the valley.
The probability of exceeding 65 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley ranges from 35 to 75 percent.

Tonight again the probability of dense fog hits near 100 percent again with the highest probability along Highway 198 from Lemoore to Visalia; Highway 43 from Selma to the intersection with I-5; Highway 99 from Merced down to just north of Bakersfield. No disagreement with the forecast soundings showing the fog profile of a strong inversion, ample surface moisture, drying with height, and light wind through the inversion layer for the recipe of Tule fog. DFA is highly probable again from 06z-19z.

Sunday through Friday with the upper flow moving along more the Tule fog remains possible however the ingredients change a little with a lower inversion and a fairly deep isothermal layer from the model soundings along with some periods of high cloudiness. These all pose scenarios where the fog may not form as quickly or be as dense. There is some hope for a end of the streak of dense fog advisories! This morning is seven straight days in the row, and the record is nine set back in 2019. That record might be in jeopardy before the reprieve.

Next Saturday a trough moves into the region and the run-to-run shows deepening of the wave each run. This increases the probability of precipitation for the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada. The clusters are having issues in this period with the developing system. Most of the extended is medium confidence however next Saturday is low. The probabilities are fairly high, but the number of members at that range doesn't show the true range of possibilities.

AVIATION
12Z: KMCE/KMER/KBFL IFR VSBY with 30 percent probability of LIFR/IFR CIGs , for now predominate CIG is indefinite. AFT 19Z MVFR VSBY UNTL 05Z when probability of IFR VSBY returns around 30 percent.

KFAT VLFIR through 17Z, similar to yesterday, then MVFR VSBY with indefinite CIGS through 08Z then a return to VLIFR.

KVIS VLIFR through 19Z, similar to yesterday, then IFR/MVFR VSBY with indefinite CIGS until 04Z and a return to VLIFR.

High Sierra/Foothills/Kern County Desert: VFR few high clouds for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 12/06/2024 14:49 EXPIRES: 12/07/2024 23:59 On Saturday December 7 2024, Unhealthy in Fresno, Kern, and Tulare Counties. Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Kings, Madera, and Merced Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning For All in Fresno, Kern, Madera, and Tulare Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Kings and Merced Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for CAZ301-302-305>307- 309>312-314>316.