Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Frisco, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 210 AM Tue...

Key Messages

- The coldest air of the season today. Brisk with temps well below normal and breezy WNW winds.

- Freeze warning remains in effect for most of Mainland ENC.

- Scattered non-accumulating light snow or flurries for the next few hours, with best chances across the northern tier.

A deep upper low will slide from the eastern Great Lakes to New England with an Arctic airmass building into the region. A reinforcing Arctic front will continue to push offshore this morning as a stout embedded shortwave axis moves through the upper low and across the region with strong CAA bringing gusty winds and plummeting temps. Freeze Warnings continue for most of the area, except Downeast and the Outer Banks where temps are expected to remain in the mid to upper 30s. Wind chill values expected to drop into the upper teens to lower 20s inland and mid to upper 20s along the coast this morning. Radar shows light returns, likely light snow showers/flurries, moving through the northern tier early this morning, confirmed by spotter reports of flurries. Strong forcing associated with the shortwave will support a brief period of light rain/snow to light snow showers/flurries for the next few hours, with best chances across the northern tier. No impacts are expected as ground temps are too warm for much in the way of accumulation, though a light dusting on grassy areas may occur where heavier precip rates develop, with best chance occurring along the Hwy 64 corridor. Arctic high pressure becomes centered across the Southeast today then pushes southward ahead of another northern stream shortwave tonight. Low level thicknesses bottom out, with highs only in the 40s area-wide, about 20 degrees below climo.

SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
As of 210 AM Tue...

Key Messages

- Freezing temperatures will be possible again inland

High pressure will continue to build in from the south overnight, while a dry front pushes through. Despite the clear skies, SW-WSW breeze will limit radiational cooling, but still expect temps to drop quickly this evening and fall into the low to mid 30s inland and upper 30s to around 40 deg for the beaches. If a widespread freeze does not occur this morning, additional Freeze Warnings may be needed.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 210 AM Tue...High pressure remains centered across the SE US Wednesday with southerly flow bringing warming temperatures, but still ~5 degrees below normal with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A mid level shortwave pushes across the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday night with an attendant sfc trough/front pushing through the area, however the airmass remains very dry and don't expect much in the way of clouds, let alone precip, with this system. Deep westerly downslope flow ahead of ridging sliding across Sern CONUS will actually bring a few degrees of warming temps on Thursday with highs expected in the mid 60s.
High pressure builds into the area Friday before sliding offshore first half of the weekend with highs in the low to mid 60s. The next front will approach the area late next weekend and early next week, with increasing rain chances.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 0640 Tuesday...

Key Messages

- Gusty W to NW winds (20-25+kt) continue into Wednesday

VFR flight cats persist across TAF sites with MVFR CIGs over OBX to start the TAF period. Clouds over OBX clear in another hr or so. WNWerly winds 15G25+kt pose crosswind concerns for ISO/EWN through the day. Strongest winds around midday, falling off around sunset. Overnight, some upper level clouds stream overhead, but nothing of flight cat concern. SFC winds become more SWerly in the early morning hours. LLWS concerns for all TAF sites with FL020 winds ~35-40kt, inland terminals first ~9Z, coastal terminals closer to 11/12Z.

Outlook: Through the end of the week, the main aviation impact across ENC looks to be periods of gusty winds. WED, winds out of the SW. Winds lay down latter half of the week.

MARINE
As of 210 AM Tue...

Key Messages

- Strong W/NW winds will continue through mid day - SCA conditions, possible Gales, expected again Wednesday

Latest obs show NW winds 15-25 kt across the inland waters and 20-30 kt gusting to 30-35 kt across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound...with seas 5-8 ft (highest south of Hatteras).
Arctic front will continue to push offshore this morning, with strong CAA developing behind it. W-NW winds will peak at 20-30 kt gusting 25-40 kt. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal waters and sounds with SCAs for the rivers through mid day. Seas build as high as 6-9 ft for the waters s of Hatteras. Winds grad relax a bit tonight, but gradients tighten again early Wed as a dry front approaches the waters. SCA conditions expected to return across most waters Wed and Wed night, and could see some gale force gusts south of Cape Hatteras once again.

Winds and seas finally begin to lay down by Thursday 10-20 kt as high pressure builds over SECONUS eventually sliding off the coast first half of the weekend. Better boating conditions expected Friday with NW winds 5-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft. Moderate NNW winds 10-20 kt expected Sat with seas 2-4 ft.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 0115 Tuesday...

Elevated fire concerns Tuesday and Wednesday due to breezy winds and low relative humidities.

An already much drier airmass has arrived in the wake of Sunday night's cold front and an even drier one will fill in behind Monday night's reinforcing front. This dry airmass will remain in place through much of the upcoming week, and will be accompanied by periods of breezy northwest to west winds TUE and southwest WED. The greatest overlap of breezy and dry conditions is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, and this is the period that stands out the most for potential fire weather concerns. These two days also come after the expected freeze for many inland locations tonight, with more rapid curing expected.
In coordination with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for all of ENC from 10am-6pm Tuesday.

Winds become SWerly and slightly weaker WED which will improve conditions slightly with some higher Tds increasing the daily MinRH compared to today, but another night of MinTs around or below freezing will further dry fuels. Potential remains for further fireWx headlines WED.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 210 AM Tue...Potent cold air advection will bring strong westerly winds to ENC this morning and persisting into the evening before subsiding. WNW winds will increase to 25-35 mph across the sounds. This is likely to result in minor water level rises up to about 1 ft AGL and some soundside flooding from Duck down to Hatteras Village with a chance for some locally higher water levels at Roanoke Island. This threat is forecast to continue for much of today before subsiding this evening as high pressure gradually builds into ENC allowing for winds and water levels to lower.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ203- 205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ131- 136-137.
Gale Warning until noon EST today for AMZ135-150.
Gale Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-154-156- 158.
Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ230-231.