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FXUS64 KLZK 270524 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Looking at the big picture, a broad upper level trof will remain over the western 2/3 of the country, with several vigorous shortwaves rotating thru the trof and lifting into the upper Plains.
The overall pattern thru the period will remain southwesterly aloft with several shortwaves rippling thru the flow.

At the surface, the forecast area is now entirely in the warm sector, with a warm front north of the area in MO, and a dryline located over OK. There has been quite a bit of cloud cover and convection across portions of the state this morning into early this afternoon. Of note is an area of partial clearing extending from south-central AR up to NE Arkansas where temperatures are a bit warmer than surrounding regions.

Models have been all over the place on instability forecasts for this afternoon and evening. Observations show quite a bit of instability in eastern OK, but I believe the model forecast instability over the western portions of AR are very questionable, considering the extensive cloud cover and earlier convective activity.

As for the potential for severe weather this afternoon and tonight, I am adopting more of a wait and see approach. With the model instability forecasts all over the board, and sim radar forecasts quite diverse, I feel like the most realistic scenario will be a band of convection over western AR extending into north-central AR, with the possibility of a second band developing from SW Arkansas into NE Arkansas.

We have collectively been discussing the possibility for instability being high enough for severe convection this afternoon and tonight.
Our thoughts are that there may be a narrow window of opportunity late this afternoon into early evening, but if stronger convection does not develop by then...it likely will not get going in AR.

Severe chances will be on the slate again on Sunday...where it looks like chances will be much better over a greater portion of the state.

LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Main feature in the long term will be a storm system in the Plains dragging a cold front toward Arkansas Sunday night. Ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms will be widespread, and some storms could be severe in the west. This will be a heavy rain event, with two to more than three inch amounts possible. Some flash flooding will likely result if this much precipitation materializes.

The system will track toward the upper Midwest and well to the north. The front will become parallel to a quasizonal flow, and will stall across the region. This will keep the pattern somewhat unsettled in the days to follow, with mostly diurnal convection expected. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should pop up each afternoon, and pretty much dissipate after dark.

By Thursday, large scale troughing will build this way from the Rockies. A new cold front will try to push through from the northwest, and will bring better chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Slightly cooler and drier air will follow the front on Friday.
Otherwise, above average temperatures are expected overall.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will impact all terminals to begin the forecast period. Flight category will become degraded with lowering CIGS early Saturday morning across all sites to MVFR flight category through midday on Saturday before lifting to VFR flight category by Saturday afternoon. Surface winds will gust in excess of 25 knots across all terminals for the majority of the period beginning late Friday night throughout the day on Saturday. Low level wind shear will be a concern across the northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 82 66 79 64 / 80 20 50 90 Camden AR 84 66 81 64 / 40 10 50 80 Harrison AR 78 63 72 59 / 70 50 90 70 Hot Springs AR 82 66 78 62 / 70 30 70 80 Little Rock AR 85 67 82 66 / 60 20 60 90 Monticello AR 87 66 84 67 / 30 0 30 60 Mount Ida AR 81 64 76 61 / 70 40 80 90 Mountain Home AR 79 64 75 61 / 80 30 80 90 Newport AR 84 66 81 65 / 60 10 40 80 Pine Bluff AR 85 65 82 65 / 50 10 40 80 Russellville AR 81 65 77 62 / 80 40 80 90 Searcy AR 83 63 80 64 / 70 20 50 80 Stuttgart AR 84 66 81 67 / 50 10 40 70

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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