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FXUS64 KLZK 280922 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 322 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Fairly quiet and cool conditions are ongoing across the Natural State early this Tue morning as SFC high pressure approaches the region.
This SFC high will slide east across the state by midday...moving east of the state by this evening. Winds will be generally light and variable for today as a result...with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s. SRLY SFC flow will return tonight as this SFC high moves east...with lows a bit warmer tonight into Wed morning. Lows will drop down into the upper 20s to upper 30s. Dry conditions will continue.

SRLY SFC flow will increase some for Wed as flow aloft will transition from NWRLY to more zonal...to eventually SW by Wed night.
Highs will warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s...with increasing clouds
With increasing SW flow aloft
moisture levels will increase from the south. Chances for rainfall will increase late Wed night into early Thu morning as a weak disturbance approaches from the SW
However
the better chances for SHRA will be seen early in the long term period as a potent storm system moves across the region.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

The long term pattern is shaping up to be active, at least at times, with SW upper flow in place through much of the forecast period. To begin, a potent upper trough (possibly closed low) will traverse the Srn Rockies, quickly ejecting into the Srn/Cntrl Plains. Large scale forcing for ascent will overspread the region promoting a couple days worth of showers and thunderstorms.

At the surface, deepening surface cyclone will commence in lee of the Rockies beneath said upper features. PoP chances will ramp up through the day on Thursday, becoming maximized Thursday night at nearly 100 percent. Dry air should begin to entrain into the SW side of the surface low by Friday morning which should serve to cut-off precipitation, from SW to NE, through the daytime on Friday. While scattered thunderstorms are expected, a lack of instability and low- level moisture return should preclude any mention of severe weather at this time.

QPF amounts could be quite beneficial, with widespread amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible. Given the recent bout of dry weather, flash flooding is not anticipated to be an issue. Temperatures will be chilly on Thursday, with readings remaining in the 40s to near 50 much of the day. In fact, high temperatures are likely to occur late Thursday night towards midnight due to warm air advection setup. As the surface low approaches AR/OK/MO borders Thursday night, a tight PGF will ramp up low-level Srly winds. Winds may gust as high as 30 to 35 mph, which will correspond with many locations maximum temperature occurring after dark.

Over the weekend, a couple weak upper level systems should pass NW of AR, thus only mentioned low-end PoP chances across the state. A stronger upper trough is progged to move across the Cntrl Plains late Sunday into Monday, however very limited moisture return is expected to keep precipitation at bay, at least for now.
Temperatures through the period will be in the 50s and 60s for highs and 30s and 40s for lows.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 50 35 61 42 / 0 0 0 10 Camden AR 57 33 62 44 / 0 0 0 30 Harrison AR 49 33 59 39 / 0 0 0 30 Hot Springs AR 56 35 60 43 / 0 0 0 30 Little Rock AR 54 35 62 44 / 0 0 0 20 Monticello AR 56 35 62 44 / 0 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 57 36 60 43 / 0 0 0 40 Mountain Home AR 48 33 60 41 / 0 0 0 30 Newport AR 47 30 59 40 / 0 0 0 10 Pine Bluff AR 54 33 61 42 / 0 0 0 20 Russellville AR 54 32 61 43 / 0 0 0 30 Searcy AR 50 31 60 40 / 0 0 0 10 Stuttgart AR 51 31 60 41 / 0 0 0 10

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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