Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Russellville, AR
September 23, 2023 9:49 AM CDT (14:49 UTC)
Sunrise 7:00AM Sunset 7:09PM Moonrise 2:34PM Moonset 12:00AM
Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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FXUS64 KLZK 231135 AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 635 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday Night )
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Quiet conditions were ongoing across AR this Saturday morning.
Infrared satellite imagery depicted high clouds streaming NW to SE across the state as well as fog/low-stratus hovering over some of the same areas that received beneficial rainfall on Friday, i.e SW/S-Cntrl AR and portions of N/NE AR. Temperatures this morning ranged from the lower 60s to lower 70s across the state.
Today, low-level moisture will be on the increase in advance of an approaching storm system and associated cold front. Ahead of the front, compressional warming across the region coupled with abundant sunshine should result in temperatures rapidly warming into the lower and mid 90s. Went a couple degrees above model guidance for highs to account for compressional warming. While these readings are above average for this time of year by nearly 10 degrees, the expected highs fall about 5 degrees below daily record high temperatures
So it could always be worse
Aloft, the pattern can be described by a ridge situated over Nrn Mexico, a closed-low traversing W to E across the Cntrl Rockies, and area of low pressure associated with Tropical Storm Ophelia slowly lifting Nwrd. Between the ridge and Rockies closed-low, a jet streak was denoted on the H500 map. Just downstream of this feature, a pronounced diffluent pattern aloft was in place across nearly all of the Mid-MS Valley, supportive of large scale forcing for ascent for later today. This area of diffluence will promote an intensifying surface low across the Cntrl/Nrn Plains. It is this system which will bring precipitation chances back to the region.
Tonight, the aforementioned cold front will move closer to the region as the upper level system tracks NEwrd. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire along and ahead of the boundary within the warm sector during the late afternoon hours. This convection is expected to initiate to the N and W of AR. The most favorable kinematic fields and thermodynamic parameter space for severe weather are anticipated to be situated to the N and W of AR, occupying portions of Ern and NErn OK, Nwrd into Ern KS, and far Wrn MO. Across these areas, the environment will be favorable or supportive for the development of supercells, eventually growing upscale into an MCS/bowing line segments as this systems pushes Ewrd and SEwrd. For the LZK CWA, the best chances for severe weather will be over far Wrn AR where some of these ingredients may overlap slightly. Across this portion of the CWA, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazard. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out, however the storm mode is expected be transitioned over to multicluster/linear line segments (by the time it reaches the Wrn CWA) thus significantly lowering tornado potential there.
The potential for heavy rain will be possible given PWAT values near or above 2 inches. PWATs this high will promote heavy/efficient rainfall rates which could result in isolated instances of flash flooding. Due to dry antecedent condtions, opted out of any mention for flash flood headlines at this time. This activity will push SE across the remainder of the state overnight with severe weather potential quickly diminishing.
Heavy rain will remain possible again Sunday afternoon through the overnight period with the push of the actual cold front. While the threat for severe weather is much lower with this secondary wave of precipitation, isolated areas of damaging winds or possibly marginally severe hail may be possible. Given the recent weeks of below average rainfall across the state, this rainfall event should serve to improve drought conditions locally.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
The PD wl begin w/ the weekend cdfrnt lingering over the N/Wrn half of the state Mon morning. Aloft, moderately amplified upper flow wl be developing over the CONUS, due to the lingering upper low over the Nrn Plains/Great Lakes, and a deepening, broader long wave trough feature coming ashore over the Pac-N/W, resulting in higher- amplitude ridging over the Cntrl Plains.
Locally, N/Wrly H500 flow wl be seen, w/ a shortwave extension of the main Nrn Plains trough pivoting through the mean flow across the Ozark Plateau on Mon. This feature and the lingering sfc bndry wl keep higher Chc PoPs... including scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms... in place over the Cntrl to Srn portions of the FA, w/ higher confidence thru the early portion of the day. Thru Mon night and into Tues morning, the passing upper wave wl aid in driving the sfc cdfrnt S/wrd thru the state, and PoPs should begin to taper off from N/W to S/E, w/ mostly dry condns expected area- wide thru the day Tues.
The fcst thru the remainder of the PD becomes mostly uneventful and quiet as broad sfc high pressure over the Upper Midwest/OH River Valley and upper lvl N/Wrly flow wl promote settled wx condns. Temps thru the PD wl moderate towards near-normal to slightly above-normal values at most locations.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
A mix of VFR/MVFR conds are expected through 14z, afterwards becoming VFR. Winds will be Srly at 5 to 15 knots this afternoon.
SHRA/TSRA will return this evening into early Sun, overspreading terminals from NW to SE. Conds should deteriorate once heavier precip arrives at each site.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 89 66 82 64 / 0 50 70 50 Camden AR 88 68 81 66 / 10 40 80 70 Harrison AR 85 65 79 61 / 10 90 70 30 Hot Springs AR 92 68 85 67 / 10 70 90 70 Little Rock AR 94 71 85 69 / 10 40 80 60 Monticello AR 92 70 84 69 / 10 20 70 70 Mount Ida AR 92 67 84 64 / 10 70 90 60 Mountain Home AR 85 66 79 64 / 10 70 70 30 Newport AR 89 67 82 66 / 0 30 60 50 Pine Bluff AR 93 69 85 68 / 10 30 70 70 Russellville AR 92 68 84 67 / 10 80 80 50 Searcy AR 92 68 84 66 / 10 40 80 50 Stuttgart AR 93 70 84 67 / 0 20 70 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 635 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday Night )
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Quiet conditions were ongoing across AR this Saturday morning.
Infrared satellite imagery depicted high clouds streaming NW to SE across the state as well as fog/low-stratus hovering over some of the same areas that received beneficial rainfall on Friday, i.e SW/S-Cntrl AR and portions of N/NE AR. Temperatures this morning ranged from the lower 60s to lower 70s across the state.
Today, low-level moisture will be on the increase in advance of an approaching storm system and associated cold front. Ahead of the front, compressional warming across the region coupled with abundant sunshine should result in temperatures rapidly warming into the lower and mid 90s. Went a couple degrees above model guidance for highs to account for compressional warming. While these readings are above average for this time of year by nearly 10 degrees, the expected highs fall about 5 degrees below daily record high temperatures
So it could always be worse
Aloft, the pattern can be described by a ridge situated over Nrn Mexico, a closed-low traversing W to E across the Cntrl Rockies, and area of low pressure associated with Tropical Storm Ophelia slowly lifting Nwrd. Between the ridge and Rockies closed-low, a jet streak was denoted on the H500 map. Just downstream of this feature, a pronounced diffluent pattern aloft was in place across nearly all of the Mid-MS Valley, supportive of large scale forcing for ascent for later today. This area of diffluence will promote an intensifying surface low across the Cntrl/Nrn Plains. It is this system which will bring precipitation chances back to the region.
Tonight, the aforementioned cold front will move closer to the region as the upper level system tracks NEwrd. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire along and ahead of the boundary within the warm sector during the late afternoon hours. This convection is expected to initiate to the N and W of AR. The most favorable kinematic fields and thermodynamic parameter space for severe weather are anticipated to be situated to the N and W of AR, occupying portions of Ern and NErn OK, Nwrd into Ern KS, and far Wrn MO. Across these areas, the environment will be favorable or supportive for the development of supercells, eventually growing upscale into an MCS/bowing line segments as this systems pushes Ewrd and SEwrd. For the LZK CWA, the best chances for severe weather will be over far Wrn AR where some of these ingredients may overlap slightly. Across this portion of the CWA, damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazard. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out, however the storm mode is expected be transitioned over to multicluster/linear line segments (by the time it reaches the Wrn CWA) thus significantly lowering tornado potential there.
The potential for heavy rain will be possible given PWAT values near or above 2 inches. PWATs this high will promote heavy/efficient rainfall rates which could result in isolated instances of flash flooding. Due to dry antecedent condtions, opted out of any mention for flash flood headlines at this time. This activity will push SE across the remainder of the state overnight with severe weather potential quickly diminishing.
Heavy rain will remain possible again Sunday afternoon through the overnight period with the push of the actual cold front. While the threat for severe weather is much lower with this secondary wave of precipitation, isolated areas of damaging winds or possibly marginally severe hail may be possible. Given the recent weeks of below average rainfall across the state, this rainfall event should serve to improve drought conditions locally.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
The PD wl begin w/ the weekend cdfrnt lingering over the N/Wrn half of the state Mon morning. Aloft, moderately amplified upper flow wl be developing over the CONUS, due to the lingering upper low over the Nrn Plains/Great Lakes, and a deepening, broader long wave trough feature coming ashore over the Pac-N/W, resulting in higher- amplitude ridging over the Cntrl Plains.
Locally, N/Wrly H500 flow wl be seen, w/ a shortwave extension of the main Nrn Plains trough pivoting through the mean flow across the Ozark Plateau on Mon. This feature and the lingering sfc bndry wl keep higher Chc PoPs... including scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms... in place over the Cntrl to Srn portions of the FA, w/ higher confidence thru the early portion of the day. Thru Mon night and into Tues morning, the passing upper wave wl aid in driving the sfc cdfrnt S/wrd thru the state, and PoPs should begin to taper off from N/W to S/E, w/ mostly dry condns expected area- wide thru the day Tues.
The fcst thru the remainder of the PD becomes mostly uneventful and quiet as broad sfc high pressure over the Upper Midwest/OH River Valley and upper lvl N/Wrly flow wl promote settled wx condns. Temps thru the PD wl moderate towards near-normal to slightly above-normal values at most locations.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
A mix of VFR/MVFR conds are expected through 14z, afterwards becoming VFR. Winds will be Srly at 5 to 15 knots this afternoon.
SHRA/TSRA will return this evening into early Sun, overspreading terminals from NW to SE. Conds should deteriorate once heavier precip arrives at each site.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 89 66 82 64 / 0 50 70 50 Camden AR 88 68 81 66 / 10 40 80 70 Harrison AR 85 65 79 61 / 10 90 70 30 Hot Springs AR 92 68 85 67 / 10 70 90 70 Little Rock AR 94 71 85 69 / 10 40 80 60 Monticello AR 92 70 84 69 / 10 20 70 70 Mount Ida AR 92 67 84 64 / 10 70 90 60 Mountain Home AR 85 66 79 64 / 10 70 70 30 Newport AR 89 67 82 66 / 0 30 60 50 Pine Bluff AR 93 69 85 68 / 10 30 70 70 Russellville AR 92 68 84 67 / 10 80 80 50 Searcy AR 92 68 84 66 / 10 40 80 50 Stuttgart AR 93 70 84 67 / 0 20 70 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRUE RUSSELLVILLE RGNL,AR | 4 sm | 56 min | calm | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 73°F | 66°F | 78% | 29.98 | |
Wind History from RUE
(wind in knots)
Little Rock, AR,
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