Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bakersfield, CA

KEY MESSAGES
1. A gradual warming and drying trend expected this week with near seasonal to slightly above average temperatures.

2. Another low system brings strong winds Thursday within the Mojave Desert Slopes and Desert Floor.

3. An elevated risk for fire starts exists by the end of this week in eastern Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds.

DISCUSSION
The upper level low continues to exit eastward and in its place, a weak ridge will take hold over the area. However, Thursday will have an inside slider cooling down the San Joaquin Valley and bringing winds to the Mojave Desert slopes and the desert floor. As such, a wind advisory will be in effect from 11am Thursday to 11am Friday. Ensemble guidance doesn't suggest any precipitation, but does suggest cooler temperatures. The northern part of the CWA will be at a 90 percent chance of exceeding 68 degrees and a 10 percent chance of exceeding 75 degrees. The southern part of the CWA will see 90 percent chance of exceeding 70 degrees and a 10 percent chance of exceeding 78 degrees.

After Thursday, another ridge will take hold over the area. This is going to bring warm temperatures to the CWA through the weekend. On Sunday, the northern portion of the valley has a 90 percent chance of meeting and exceeding 75 degrees and a 10 percent chance to meet or exceed 89 degrees. The southern portion of the valley has a 90 percent chance to meet or exceed 80 degrees and a 10 percent chance to meet or exceed 90 degrees.

This warm won't stick around forever. By Monday temperatures are going to fall to below normal once again as a closed low makes its way down. There is another chance for measurable precipitation and a small (5-10 percent) chance of thunderstorms. As of the current ensemble run, Northern San Joaquin valley has a 90 percent chance to meet or exceed 0" of rain and 10 percent chance of meeting or exceeding 0.4". The Southern portion of the valley also has a 90 percent chance to meet or exceed 0" but a 10 percent chance of 0.2". As Monday grows closer, confidence with the impacts of this next closed low is expected to increase.




AVIATION
VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.




CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is low.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.