Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bakersfield, CA

KEY MESSAGES
1. Strong high pressure dominating the region will result in above average temperatures across the valley. The will be a moderate heat risk by the middle of the week, with low relative humidity values between 10 to 20 percent during the afternoon for much of the week.

2. There will be some elevated west winds through tonight across the Mojave Desert slopes with a moderate to high chance of wind gusts occasionally over 40 mph.

DISCUSSION

There is some weak trough transitioning over northern California, which will allow for somewhat cooler high temperatures through tomorrow, and generally in the mid 90s across the San Joaquin Valley. Winds out of the northwest will increase by later in the afternoon due to diurnal flow enhancement. There could be some strong and gusty winds exceeding 40 mph through tonight, mainly for the Mojave Desert slopes and within the Tehachapi Pass, with around a 60 to 80 percent chance of occurrence. These winds will gradually decrease in intensity each day during the afternoon hours through Thursday.

The ridge axis will begin to shift a little further to the west and result in amplification of this ridge over the deserts. This will allow for temperatures to be quite warm across the valley, and above average for most locations, beginning on Wednesday (with around a 30 to 50 percent chance of exceedance of 100 degrees, and remaining above average throughout the rest of the work week, with only a slight cooldown going into Friday. A drier airmass will also stay locked in place, and keep Relative humidities remaining quite low during the afternoon hours with values at around 10 to 20 percent. Cooling will continue going into the weekend as more troughing begins to influence the region, which will not only help to cool temperatures, but also increase relative humidity values and bring some relief to fire weather conditions.

AVIATION
00Z Update:

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across the Central California Interior.

FIRE WEATHER
Afternoon relative humidities will lower near 10 to 20 percent each day over the next week bringing elevated fire weather conditions to much of the region. Near critical fire weather conditions will occur across the Mojave Desert mountain slopes through tonight as wind gusts of 30-45 mph are expected. Winds are expected to weaken into Tuesday through Thursday.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is low.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338.