Sunday, January17, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
McKittrick, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:17PM Sunday January 17, 2021 9:57 AM PST (17:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:16AMMoonset 10:00PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 926 Am Pst Sun Jan 17 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late Monday night...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 7 to 10 ft at 14 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 7 to 10 ft at 17 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 10 to 12 ft at 19 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 9 to 11 ft at 17 seconds.
Tue..N winds 20 to 30 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 9 to 10 ft dominant period 16 seconds.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 6 to 8 ft at 14 seconds.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.
PZZ600 926 Am Pst Sun Jan 17 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z, or 8 am pst, a 1034 mb high pressure center was located 550 nm northwest of eureka ca and a 1014 mb low pressure center was located 300 nm south of san diego. Large northwest swells will keep wave heights near or above 10 ft for the outer waters into Tuesday. Gale force northeast winds will likely affect the waters inside the southern california bight Monday night through Wednesday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McKittrick, CA
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location: 35.33, -120     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 171734 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 934 AM PST Sun Jan 17 2021

SYNOPSIS. 17/321 AM.

There will be gusty northeast winds through this afternoon with continued above normal temperatures. A couple of upper lows will bring much cooler weather to the area starting on Monday. There is a slight chance of rain and snow showers across the mountains of eastern Los Angeles County Monday night through Tuesday night. Very strong and damaging northeast winds will be possible late Monday night into Wednesday, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.

SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE). 17/810 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate mostly clear skies across the area this morning. Northeasterly winds continue this morning with gusts currently 25-40 MPH in the usual wind prone locations.

Forecast-wise, the immediate short term looks to be in good shape. Skies will remain mostly clear through the afternoon. As for winds, current LAX-DAG gradient is -5.8 mb and will likely increase slightly later this morning. Later this morning, will expect the northeast winds to increase somewhat due to vertical mixing. So, low-end advisory level winds still look good for most sections of Ventura and Los Angeles counties into early this afternoon. For San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties, some localized north to northeast winds will continue, but speeds will remain below advisory levels.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short term. Current WIND ADVISORIES run until noon today for coastal Ventura/LA counties and until 300 PM for the valleys/mountains of Ventura/LA counties. The timing of these advisories look good and no changes are planned.

***From Previous Discussion***

Skies were mostly clear this morning, and will continue to be mostly sunny today with a few high clouds moving through the region.

Offshore surface gradients will continue to bring gusty Santa Ana winds across the usual wind prone areas of L.A. and Ventura Counties through this morning, then taper off through the afternoon. The strong upper level high that was parked over the Eastern Pac and California bringing record hi temps will start to breakdown today. This will allow high temps to lower across most coast and coastal valleys 3 to 8 degrees today, with some marginal warming across interior SLO/SBA Counties as offshore winds will be much lighter N of Point Conception. Highs will still remain several degrees above normal with coast and coastal valleys reaching the mid 80s. Highs in the 70s can be expected for most interior locations.

As mentioned in earlier discussions, a challenging forecast is in the cards through next Wednesday. As the upper high starts to breakdown today, an upper level disturbance will move down the eastern side of the ridge off the California coast. By early Monday morning, the upper disturbance will cutoff from the upper jet over the SoCal Bight by mid morning Monday. High temps will be much cooler due to falling H5 heights and boundary layer temps. Expect most areas to lower 6-12 degrees on Monday.

There have been some changes to the synoptic pattern that will delay the start of the strong and potentially damaging winds from late Monday afternoon, now developing Monday night into Tuesday morning. Synoptically, the upper low just off the coast of Nrn Baja will be gobbled up by another vigorous upper low over Nevada Monday evening as it retrogrades over Southern California Tuesday morning and continues to dig south as it parks off the northern Baja coast Tuesday evening. The reason the winds will be delayed intensifying Monday afternoon and evening is the placement of the 1001 mb surface low which will now be over Point Conception Monday night thru early Tue morning. Therefore winds will not be as strong initially Monday evening. However, by late Tuesday morning, the surface low will re-position farther SW outside the SoCal Bight and strengthen to a 997 mb low. This will enhance the surface pressure gradients between LAX-DAG. Latest NAM-WRF projected gradients for LAX-DAG at 12z Tue went from -8.7MB to -5.8MB. The 00z Wed gradient is up to -7.3MB. So it will still be very windy late Monday night through Tuesday, and with the surface low moving very little, very gusty Santa Ana winds will continue through at least Wed. The strongest winds are now expected to be between Tuesday morning and Tuesday evening. Strongest gusts should reach 65 to 75 mph with some isolated gusts possibly higher in the mountains. High Wind Watches remain in effect for much of L.A. and Ventura Counties excluding the Antelope Valley as well as the Ventura and L.A. County Coast. If I did not see these gradient changes, I would have added both coastal areas to the watch as well. Make no mistake, this will still be a very strong and widespread wind event due to the colder nature of the low which will bring more subsidence over the region to drive the strong winds. There remains good upper support especially across the mountains, but more SE flow at 850 mb will remain over the coastal waters to valleys through Tue night.

With the upper low moving over LA County, comes a slight chance of showers developing initially off the L.A. coast bringing some showers to Catalina and light showers or snow across the eastern San Gabriel Mtns. For now have left showers out of the forecast for the rest of L.A. County. But that could change with each successive model run. Snow levels will be around 5500 ft. The snow level could drop to 4000 ft if heavier showers surprisingly develop. Although relative humidities will rise a bit over the San Gabriels, it is still dry and wet bulb temps could allow for lower snow levels potentially. High temps will be near normal Tue or a few degrees cooler.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT). 17/504 AM.

The GFS and EC continue to remain in good agreement with large scale features. On Wednesday, the The upper level low will continue to meander little off the coast of northern Baja with some wrap-around moisture mainly staying to the south and east of L.A. County, except nosing in across the Eastern San Gabriel Mtns and across the SoCal Bight. Confidence is low where precip will occur due to the nature of the upper low. By Wednesday evening, any precip associated with the wrap around moisture will have pushed eastward as the upper low also ejects eastward across Arizona on Thu. Gusty offshore winds are expected to continue through Wednesday.

A shortwave ridge builds in behind the exiting trough ahead of another cold upper low and associated trough pushing southeast into the forecast area by Friday or Friday evening from Oregon/CA border. Light rain should develop across SLO and SBA Counties, then overspread the entire forecast area late Friday night into Saturday. At this point, both the GFS and ECMWF pivot scattered showers across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties late Friday night into Saturday morning, with scattered showers looking more hit and miss during the day, with best precip chances in the mountains Saturday afternoon with overall light precipitation amounts with this system.

The snow level will be around 5000 feet initially Friday, then drop to between 3500 and 4000 ft Friday night into Saturday morning which could bring some local hazardous travel conditions across the I-5 Corridor and other low level mountain highways. Total snowfall accumulations do not look to impressive at this point, but as we draw closer to the event, higher resolution models could indicate higher precipitation amounts.

High temps will bounce back to slightly above normal, especially across coast and coastal valleys due to continued offshore flow on Wednesday, with marginal cooling on Thursday, before more significant cooling expected Friday through Saturday where highs will only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s for most coast and valley locations, and cooler across interior areas.

AVIATION. 17/1146Z.

At 0807Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface- based inversion with the around 1700 ft at 25 degrees C.

High confidence in all CAVU TAFs and moderate confidence in winds. Northeast wind speeds may be off by up to 8 kt. There is a chance of moderate turbulence and LLWS especially around higher terrain.

KLAX . High confidence in CAVU TAF. Good confidence that an east wind component will be 5 kt or less.

KBUR . High confidence in CAVU TAF.

MARINE. 17/208 AM.

High confidence that Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level hazardous seas over 10 feet will continue through Tuesday afternoon across the waters along the Central Coast southward to San Nicolas Island. There is also a 30-40% chance of SCA level northwest winds on Monday, and a 30% chance of Gale force north to northeast winds across the waters along the Central Coast to Point Conception on Monday night.

Moderate to high confidence in SCA level northeast winds across the waters from Point Mugu to Santa Monica and out to Anacapa Island through this morning (have extended the SCA through noon). On Monday evening, high confidence in gusty northeast winds and choppy short-period seas across all the inner waters inside the Southern California Bight and out to San Nicolas Island through Wednesday morning with the strongest winds expected late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. A Gale Watch has been issued for this time period with winds likely peaking between 30 and 40 kt with local gusts to 50 kt. Choppy wind-generated waves of 5 to 8 feet are also expected. These conditions are expected to impact the eastern Channel Islands and Catalina Island. East facing Harbors, such as Avalon Harbor and other east facing harbor entrances across the Channel Islands will be affected with strong winds and steep seas. These conditions are hazardous to boaters, and there may be damage to boats that are not anchored properly. Mariners should avoid these areas, or remain in safe harbor until conditions improve.

BEACHES. 17/726 AM.

A long period west to northwest swell will move through the coastal waters through Tuesday, resulting in high surf and dangerous rip currents on all west and northwest facing beaches.

For the Central Coast . Large breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet will continue through midday today, diminish somewhat overnight, then a larger swell will bring a secondary peak on Monday. Breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet are likely on Monday with local sets potentially greater than 20 feet.

For the Los Angeles and Ventura County beaches and exposed west facing beaches across the Santa Barbara South Coast . Large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet will continue today with local sets to 10 feet across Ventura County beaches. Another large swell will bring slightly higher surf on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER. 17/933 AM.

Lingering offshore winds gusting between 25 and 40 mph combined with very warm temperatures and low humidities between 8 and 15 percent will continue to bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions to portions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties today. Offshore winds are expected to diminish tonight into Monday morning, then increase again across Los Angeles and Ventura counties by Monday afternoon, with humidities generally in the 15 to 25 percent range.

A very strong and damaging north to northeast wind event is likely between late Monday night and Wednesday morning. The strongest and most widespread winds are expected to be Tuesday mid morning through Tuesday night when widespread damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph will be likely in the mountains, foothills, and some valley locations in Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Even coastal areas (including portions of the LA Basin) will likely see locally damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Portions of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties (especially the mountains and Central Coast) could see strong northeast to east winds with this event Tuesday into Tuesday night, with wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph, except locally 60 mph across the higher terrain. Due to the uncertainty with the track of the upper low and the possibility of some moisture entrainment on Tuesday, confidence remains low with the humidity forecast. However there is the potential for humidity levels between 15 and 30 percent for a portion of this strong wind event, with the driest air focused across coastal and valley areas where downslope drying will be maximized. Due to the strength of this upcoming wind event and current state of the very dry fuels, a Fire Weather Watch will be considered for Tuesday with the afternoon forecast. Significant wind impacts will be likely with this event, including the threat of widespread downed trees and powerlines, as well as power outages. Winds are then expected to diminish Thursday through next weekend, with a chance of precipitation Friday through Sunday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Tuesday for zones 34-35-39>41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 40-41. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Watch in effect from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for zones 44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from late Monday night through Wednesday morning for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (TUE-SAT).

Strong to potentially damaging Santa Ana winds are possible Monday night into early Wednesday. High surf will continue to affect west-facing beaches through Tuesday. Gale force winds are possible across the inner waters Monday night through Tuesday night.



PUBLIC . Kaplan AVIATION . Stewart MARINE . Stewart BEACHES . /Kj FIRE . Gomberg SYNOPSIS . Kaplan

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPXC1 41 mi45 min Calm G 1
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 41 mi63 min Calm G 1 64°F 55°F1018.2 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 46 mi61 min 54°F9 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 60 mi37 min N 5.8 G 7.8 55°F1017.8 hPa

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA34 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair64°F38°F38%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBP

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:25 AM PST     1.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM PST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:10 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:18 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:40 AM PST     1.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:16 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:05 PM PST     -2.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:03 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.21.20.90.50.1-00.10.411.51.921.710.1-0.9-1.8-2.5-2.7-2.5-2-1.1-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Port San Luis Wharf, California
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Port San Luis Wharf
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:22 AM PST     4.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:29 AM PST     2.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:10 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:18 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:14 PM PST     4.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:16 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:19 PM PST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:03 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.6443.63.12.62.32.32.63.23.94.54.74.64.13.32.31.30.60.30.30.81.62.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.