Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Los Osos, CA

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...21/847 PM.

***UPDATE***

The marine layer is 1300 ft deep and is capped by a strong inversion. There is moderate onshore flow which is about 2 mb strong than it was 24 hours ago. These 2 things have combined to bring low clouds back into the coastal areas early this evening.
They will also combine to bring slow to no clearing tomorrow.

The marine layer and onshore push helped to lower max temps 1 to 3 degrees today across the coasts and vlys. The interior warmed 2 to 4 degrees under sunny skies. Max temps were a tale of two cities with cst and vlys temps 4 to 8 degree blo normal and the mtns and interior came in 4 to 8 degrees above normal.

Temps tomorrow will cool a few degrees more across the csts/vly as the marine layer continues to dominate. The interior will see similar temps

Forecast is in pretty good shape made small adjustments to temps and clouds.

***From Previous Discussion***

A series of weak to moderate upper level troughs moving through the West Coast this week will maintain cooler than normal temperatures across coast and coastal valleys this week. The marine layer depth this morning was around 1400 feet and forecast soundings indicate additional deepening of 500 to 1000 feet each day through at least Thursday. So while clouds were mostly confined to the coastal areas this morning, low clouds and fog will easily make it into the valleys overnight tonight and then again each night the rest of the week. And as usual with a deepening marine layer and increasing onshore flow, daytime temperatures will be cooling with highs mostly just in the 60s for coast/valleys by no later than Wednesday. May eventually see some morning drizzle as the marine layer deepens, especially the latter half of the week when the strongest of the troughs moves through the area.

Far interior areas like the Antelope Valley and interior SLO County will be cooling down as well as some of that cooler maritime air pushes farther inland but it will take until at least Wednesday for highs there to drop below normal.

With the increase in onshore flow to close to 9mb to the desert each afternoon, there will be increasing west to southwest winds there gusting to around 40 mph.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...21/215 PM.

The cool pattern will continue through the weekend as the strongest of the troughs moves through Saturday which will likely be the coolest day. There's still quite a bit of disagreement in the models with regard to how deep the upper will be and whether there will be any precipitation beyond just the typical morning drizzle. The EPS ensembles have been pretty consistent the last few runs indicating at least a 60-70% chance of light rain north of Pt Conception dropping to around 10-20% in the south. Amounts would be under a tenth of an inch in most areas. Temperatures again just in the 60s with minimal afternoon clearing for coast and valleys.

A slow warming trend will begin Sunday but high temperatures will remain below normal through at least early next week.

AVIATION
22/0018Z.

At 2255Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2100 feet with a temperatures of 17 C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs (Good confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF). Flight cat change timing may be off by +/- 90 minutes and cig hgts off by +/- 200 ft.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight cat change timing may be off by +/- 90 minutes. There is a 15 percent chc of 200 ft cigs and a 25 percent chc of cigs no lower than 600 ft. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight cat change timing may be off by +/- 90 minutes. There is a 25 percent chc of 1/2SM FG VV002 conds 10Z-15Z.

MARINE
21/658 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast.
Through tonight, there is a 10% chance of local Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level wind gusts, mainly around Point Conception.
For Tuesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in the northwestern Outer Waters in the afternoon and evening. For Wednesday through Saturday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds across much of the outer waters, especially in the afternoon and overnight hours.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday through Saturday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds, mainly in the late afternoon through evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across most areas. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Wednesday and Thursday, and a 40-50% chance Friday and Saturday, mainly during the late afternoon through evening hours.

Chances for SCA conds increase over the weekend for the entire coastal waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.