Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Los Osos, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...08/232 AM.

Srn CA will sit under the east side of east pac ridge through the short term with hgts near 584 dam (13 dam higher than normal). At the sfc there will be offshore flow form both the N and S. The offshore will be near 6 mb offshore from the N and near 3 mb from the E. There is no upper level support so while there will be gusty canyon winds each morning they will be mostly under advisory levels. The one exception will be the Santa Lucia range in SLO county where advisory level winds will occur this morning and Tuesday morning. The winds will likely reach advisory levels across coastal SLO county below the favored passes and canyons.

Some low clouds are likely this morning across the nearshore areas from Long Beach to KLAX. Dense fog will likely accompany any low clouds that do form. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly clear through short term period with the upper high and offshore flow preventing any cloudiness.

Max temps will be the main issue for the three day period (and Thu and Fri as well). Offshore flow, hier than normal hgts and sunny skies will all combine to bring most areas 3 to 6 degrees of warming today, 2 to 4 degrees on Tue and 1 to 3 degrees on Wednesday. Today there will be mostly 70s on the csts and upper 70s to mid 80s in the vlys. By Wednesday expect mid 70s to lower 80s across the csts and 80s in the vlys. While these max temps are impressively 10 to 15 locally 18 degrees above normal they are not at record levels. Low temps will be mixed bag with the dry air, clear skies and long nights combining to bring below normal lows to wind sheltered areas. Windier areas, however, will see slightly above normal overnight lows.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...08/231 AM.

Medium range mdls and ensembles have the same general idea about the xtnd fcst and their differences really should not affect the weather's outcome much at all.

The ridge will begin to weaken on Thu and this trend will continue into Fri. More importantly for the forecast for the csts and vlys the offshore flow will weaken each day and, in fact, will turn onshore to the east on Friday. Look for two days of slight cooling across the csts/vlys (1 to 3 degrees each day).

The anticyclonic flow turns cyclonic on Saturday. There will be onshore flow to the east through the day and only weak offshore flow from the north. This should bring a return of the coastal marine layer cloud pattern. It will also bring a noticeable cool down or 3 to 6 degrees. The cooling trend is forecast to continue Sunday with another 3 to 5 degrees of cooling across the board.
Despite this cooling max temps will remain above normal esp away from the coasts.

AVIATION
08/1911Z.

At 1756Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surface- based inversion up to 1600 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

Moderate to high confidence in KPRB, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB TAFs.
High confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 30% chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions at KPRB after 10Z Tue, and after 03Z Tue for KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of cigs arriving as early as 03Z. If cigs do arrive, there is a 40% chance of TEMPO 1/4SM FG BKN002 conds, otherwise 1/2SM FG to 1SM BR and BKN002-004 cigs will be common. Any easterly winds will remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

MARINE
08/847 AM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Slightly higher confidence exists in the seas forecast relative to winds.

For the outer waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast, there is a 40-60% chance of low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions through early Wednesday, with a 30-40% chance of winds lingering through the rest of the week. The highest chances will be across the western portions north of San Nicolas Island during the afternoon and evening hours.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast out to 10 NM offshore, there is a 60% percent chance of local northeast SCA level wind gusts from Ventura to Santa Monica and a 60-70% chance of northeast SCA winds from near Pismo Beach to Point Piedras Blancas each night and morning through Tuesday. There is a low-to- moderate (20 to 40 percent) chance of SCA level NE winds once again for the aforementioned areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PST Tuesday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).