Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bayview, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 345 PM Monday...An upper level low over the Deep South is becoming negatively tilted today allowing for deep moist convergence across ENC. Increasing lapse rates in the vicinity of the upper level low has enabled sufficient instability despite only tepid surface heating. ML CAPE vals only in the 500 to 1,000 J/KG range based on latest RAP analysis. However, solid low level shear with veering of winds has allowed for some briefly rotating storms to form within the band of rain. This is expected to continue through the remainder of the evening into tonight as low level veering of winds persists. High PW's approaching 2" will continue to pose a threat for areas of heavy rain, esp where some banding of heavy showers or storms occur. Already we have received reports of over 5" of rain in portions of Onslow county from today's convection. A long standing moderate drought is in place across most of ENC, so no severe flooding is expected, although some roads being shut down isn't out of the question. Expanded the flood watch to encompass the entire CWA with this update, with additional bands of rainfall tonight and tomorrow gradually shifting north and east.

A break in the heavier rain rates through first part of the evening, before reinvigoration of heavier rain rates arrives after 6Z with frontal forcing arriving first in the Coastal Plain counties, and then further east towards daybreak Tue.
Heavy rain rates will return through late tonight for SW areas.
Additional rainfall of 1-3" is expected, with isolated totals of 4+ inches possible where heavier bands set up shop.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
As of 4 PM Monday...The axis of greatest moisture will become more progressive through the day on Tuesday, shifting the area of heaviest rain from the southwestern counties in the morning to the OBX by the afternoon. Given PWATs around 2" and the heavy rain already occurring ahead of Tuesday's round, flooding will be a concern. Have expanded the flood watch to include the entire CWA for the heavy bands of rain moving through the region. The antecedent surface conditions will work in our favor given the ongoing drought, but efficient rain rates may still cause issues. The new flood watch is until 5AM, although south and west portions of the watch may be dropped earlier as the final band moves east.

There is also a low end threat of a brief spin up and strong wind gusts, especially along the coastal plain, Tuesday afternoon and evening. Sufficient instability and veering of winds at the lowest levels should cause some storms to rotate.
The uncertainty is on the coverage of storms, as mid layer subsidence may prevent the storms from strengthening. If we observe rotation, any tornadoes that may occur will likely be very weak and brief in nature.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 3 PM Monday...

Aloft: By late Wednesday, upper low will become absorbed into the shortwave across the Mid-Atlantic states. The axis of the upper trough will traverse ENC late Wednesday/early Thursday with weak upper ridging briefly building in it's wake. A weak, quick hitting shortwave will pass Friday night followed by another, slightly stronger shortwave on Saturday with zonal flow taking over on Sunday.

Surface: The warm front associated with a surface low will lift north across ENC Tuesday into Wednesday, putting us firmly in the warm sector. From there, the next FROPA won't be until Saturday, although not much of an airmass change is expected.

Tuesday night - Wednesday...We get dry slotted Tuesday night, which may keep portions of the CWA completely dry through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon however, ample instability and upper level forcing will remain in the area on Wednesday, which will support the continuation of likely to categorical PoPs. Thunderstorms will be likely in the afternoon, especially along any seabreeze boundary. And with a slightly drier column, rain rates will not be as efficient as they will be on Tuesday.

Thursday - Sunday...Towards the end of the week, we'll return to a typical summertime pattern with daily chances of isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will steadily climb through the week, reaching the 90s across the coastal plain Friday and Saturday. These temps, accompanied by dews in the low- 70s, will generate heat indices ranging from 95-100+.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Tuesday/...
As of 4 PM Monday...A mixed bag of observed flight categories right now as bands of heavy rain move through the region. Local IFR possible at times esp in heavier showers and storms through the rest of the afternoon. Lightning chances are generally confined to the coast where instability is the greatest. A break in the heavier showers later this evening into tonight, with flight conditions becoming generally MVFR to even briefly VFR, before heavy showers and inc thunderstorm chances return from the west late tonight into Tuesday. This will result in a second drop in conditions to IFR/LIFR, likely around or after 6Z Tuesday. Bands of rain shift NE through the day Tuesday, with dry slot moving into the region. This greatly reduces shower and tstorm coverage Tuesday afternoon/evening for inland locales.

LONG TERM /Tuesday afternoon through Friday/...
As of 3:50 AM Monday...Prolonged periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible throughout the period given the active pattern at play. The heaviest rain will occur on Tuesday, but daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 4 PM Tuesday...Winds will be generally SE at 15-25 kts through tonight then becoming 20-30 kt Tuesday afternoon. Seas 4-6 ft this afternoon become 5-7 ft tonight. and 6-8 ft Tuesday before beginning to abate Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 430 PM Monday...By Wednesday morning, the winds will have veered to the southwest, decreasing to 5-15 kt and seas dropping to 3-4 ft. Pleasant boating conditions for the end of the work week.

HYDROLOGY
As of 4 PM Mon...Already 2-6" have fallen where the band of rainfall has moved through today. An additional 1-3" of rainfall is expected throughout the CWA, with isolated values of 4"+ through Tuesday night. A Flood watch is now in effect for the entire CWA

EQUIPMENT
Due to a system upgrade, NOAA Weather Radio from the following transmitters will be off the air starting 730 AM Monday May 12th through Wednesday May 14th.

New Bern, NC, KEC84 at 162.400 MHz.
Cape Hatteras, NC, KIG-77 at 162.475 MHz.
Marnie, NC, WWH-26 at 162.425 MHz.
Warsaw, NC, KXI-5 at 162.425 MHz.

Visit www.weather.gov/mhx for the latest forecast information during the temporary outage. Our internet will NOT be impacted by the upgrade.



MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for NCZ029-044>047-080- 081-094-193>196-203>205.
Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for NCZ079-090>092-198- 199.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ231.