Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morro Bay, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...21/231 PM.

An upper level trough moving across the west coast is resulting in gusty north to northwest winds and increased critical fire weather conditions across portions of Southwest California today.

The strongest winds will be focused across the interior areas of southeast SBA County, interior mountains of Ventura County, and the interior areas of LA County (including I5 Corridor and Antelope Valley foothills), where High Wind Warnings go into effect this afternoon through the early Sunday morning hours when gusts of 50 to 65 mph are possible. Additionally, humidities will continue to drop this afternoon and evening, resulting in increased critical fire weather conditions into Sunday morning for the majority of areas with High Wind Warnings and the Antelope Valley. Outside of these areas, weaker wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph are possible this afternoon through evening for the remainder of the SBA county (save for the Cuyama Valley), as well as the Ojai and Casitas valleys, where wind advisories are in effect.

Once winds calm down Sunday morning, the main area that will see a return of gusty winds Sunday evening will be the SBA Southwestern Coast and western portion of the Santa Ynez Mountain Range. Gusts up to 45 to 50 mph will be possible, with another wind advisory not out of the question.

Outside of the winds, weather impacts are relatively low. A brief warm up is expected Sunday and Monday (with little change on Tuesday) as onshore flow weakens by around 5mb and the marine layer depth lowers by 1000 feet or so. Highs inland expected to warm about 10 degrees from Saturday while coastal areas pick up 1-3 degrees. Even with this warmup, highs are still expected to be 3-6 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...21/234 PM.

Weak high pressure is expected to return Wednesday and remain through the end of the week. As a result, temperatures will increase back to near (or even slightly above) normals for this time of year. Not expecting any strong winds during the period except for the typical Antelope Valley breezes each afternoon.
Overall, very seasonable weather next week that will likely carry into the following week.

AVIATION
21/1813Z.

At 1655Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3500 feet deep with an inversion top at 6000 feet with a temperature of 15 Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Low confidence on winds at KWJF KPMD KSBA as nearby mountain wave activity could surface strong winds at any time through the period. Expected LLWS issues when winds are lighter at the airport. There is a moderate chance of BLDU with MVFR vsbys at KWJF and slightly lower chances at KPMD through the fcst period.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. MVFR cigs expected to linger first hour or two of forecast period. Followed by VFR conds and a west wind. There is a 30% chance MVFR cigs ~020 do not return after 08Z Sun. There is a 60% chance of east wind component exceeding 6 kt from 10Z to 16Z (+/- 1 hour).

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance MVFR cigs return 10-16Z Sun.

MARINE
21/213 PM.

***HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY***

High confidence in prolonged and strong Gale Force northwest winds beyond 20 miles from shore through Saturday night, strongest of the whole event on Saturday. While Gale gusts have not materialized so far for the nearshore Central Coast waters and western Santa Barbara Channel, the Saturday peak (this evening)
is more pronounced with the highest risk of the week. Some projections even push the winds very close to the Ventura Coast (25% chance). As such, Gale Warnings are in effect for those areas. All waters will see building and hazardously steep short period seas. While winds will likely not reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) off Los Angeles and Orange Counties, a SCA is in effect for what should the the steepest seas on Saturday. Small craft should stay in safe harbor, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. High confidence in lowering winds and subsiding seas for the first half of next week, with abnormally large high tides each evening. High-end SCA winds are still likely for the waters beyond 20 miles for shore on Monday, but winds will lower to more seasonal speeds by Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER
21/342 PM.

An unseasonably strong upper level trough of low pressure is moving through the region this afternoon through tonight. West to north winds will continue to increase this afternoon and evening with gusts of 30 to 50 mph bringing widespread elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across the mountains, interior and southern Santa Barbara County. Even stronger and locally damaging wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph are expected this afternoon into tonight across the Santa Barbara County interior mountains, Ventura County mountains, I-5 corridor, and Antelope Valley including the western foothills. These stronger winds combined with humidities lowering to between 10 and 25 percent will likely bring critical fire weather conditions to these areas, resulting in the Red Flag Warning which is valid through tonight. While locally stronger winds are still expected to surface across portions of the eastern Santa Ynez range later this afternoon into tonight, it no longer appears they will have a sufficient duration of strong wind/low humidity overlap, resulting in the cancellation of the Fire Weather Watch for this area, and just including them with brief critical headlines.
Areas in a Red Flag Warning this afternoon through tonight will have the highest risk for rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior, with the threat of long range spotting.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone 345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 350-356-382-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones 353-376>378-381-383. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).