Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morro Bay, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...05/226 PM.

A cold and dry low pressure system will continue to impact the region, resulting in areas of gusty winds. Late tonight, the current northerly winds will shift to out of the northeast. This will kick off a moderate (to locally strong) Santa Ana Wind event that will last through Sunday. On Friday there will be significant cold air advection and associated subsidence, followed by upper level support on Saturday, thus both days will be similar windy. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect from late tonight into Saturday afternoon, and may need to extended into Sunday. For LA and Ventura Counties, gusts of 30 to 45 mph are expected across favored coastal and valley areas and gusts of 45 to 65 mph are expected across the mountains. The winds will likely cause hazardous driving conditions due to crosswinds and debris on the road, and downed trees and power lines resulting in power outages.

The offshore flow will yield significant warming trend Friday through the weekend, with many coast and valleys areas likely in the 80s on Sunday. The warmest temperatures are expected for Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, where highs 15+ degrees above normal will be widespread. Minor to moderate heat impacts will be possible, mainly for outdoor workers and those without air condition. Expect clear skies through the weekend to go with the warm temperatures, and very dry humidity. Despite favorable wind and humidity conditions, there is little fire weather concern due to recent rains.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...05/226 PM.

Early next week temperatures will trend cooler as the offshore winds drop off. Tuesday will likely be the coldest day next week, when most highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. By Wednesay, another northerly wind event and building high pressure are to result in a small increase in temperatures. Thursday into late next week, another warm spell is favored with highs in the 80s possible again. Dry weather will continue, as there remains no significant chances for rain.

AVIATION
05/1750Z.

At 1632Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Timing of wind group changes may be off +/- 2 hours and wind gusts could be off by 10 kts. Light to Moderate LLWS expected through forecast period. Strongest this evening through tomorrow morning (06/06Z to 06/17Z) and focused across LA/VTA counties over and near hier terrain. Moderate Turbulence is likely, with a non-zero chance for pockets of severe turbulence during the aforementioned time period across offshore wind prone sites such as KVNY.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Northerly cross winds up to around 30 kts through 05/22Z. LLWS and turbulence possible through 06/17Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Light to moderate LLWS and Turbulence likely through forecast period, especially 06/06Z to 06/16Z.

MARINE
05/1219 PM.

For the Outer Waters, GALE Force level NW-N winds are expected to persist through at least the evening hours. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will linger through Friday morning south of Point Sal, and likely to continue for the northern waters (beyond 30 NM from shore) through the evening hours. Hazardous steep, choppy seas will likely continue through late night Friday. SCA level NE winds are likely Saturday morning for the waters around the Channel Islands & south to San Nicolas island (PZZ655). Conditions may continue to flirt with SCA levels through the weekend across the far southern waters.

For the waters nearshore along the Central Coast, SCA level NW-N winds with steep, choppy seas expected to continue thru Thursday evening. Thereafter, conditions are generally expected to remain below SCA levels through the weekend. Although, cannot rule out some localized gusts near SCA levels.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, offshore flow is expected to continue through the weekend. Focused from the evening through the morning timeframe. There is good confidence for local GALE Force winds (35-40 kts) nearshore from Point Mugu to Malibu late Thursday night through Friday morning. Since the winds are rather localized have held off on issuing a GALE Warning. NE winds of similar magnitude and coverage are likely to return late Fri night through Saturday morning. Impacts appear to be less on Sunday at this time. Eastern portions of Santa Barbara Channel will be impacted by the offshore winds during same time frame.
W-NW winds expected during each afternoon.

High confidence in ENE winds of 10-15 kts impacting Avalon Harbor Friday and Saturday morning with 20% chance of winds reaching 25kts. SCA winds are expected across the San Pedro Channel through at least Saturday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 2 AM Friday to 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM PST Friday for zones 352-356. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 370-378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 2 AM PST Friday for zones 375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning in effect from 2 AM Friday to 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Friday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).