Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morro Bay, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...21/936 AM.

***UPDATE***

This morning the marine layer clouds have been going head-to-head with the offshore flow across the interior. The marine layer is currently about 3900 ft deep and the clouds were able to expand into the foothills (coastal side) of the interior mountains across Ventura and LA Counties, and into the southeast portion of Santa Barbara (SBA) County this morning. However, the introduction of offshore flow this morning has started to cause clearing for Santa Barbara South Coast and the Ventura Valleys.
Clouds will continue to burnoff this morning, leaving for a mostly sunny day.

As for winds, will be looking at expanding wind advisories for southwestern SBA County. These areas will include the SBA southwest Coast, the western portion of the Santa Ynez Mountain Range, and the SBA County Central Coast beaches. Current model runs have trended weaker for the eastern Santa Ynez Range, and the event for this location is looking more borderline warning level wind gusts and only for a brief amount of time. Left the warning as is, however, because wind damage could still occur, and the strongest winds (around 60 mph gusts) will be possible near Montecito Hills.

Besides potentially expanding wind headlines, the forecast looks in shape and no other changes are anticipated.

***From Previous Discussion***

Strong north to northwest winds continue across portions of the area early this morning, especially southern Santa Barbara County and the I5 corridor, and the Santa Lucia range in SLO County.
Expecting this to continue through Sunday evening before an upper low moves into Central California. In the meantime, winds gusting to 35-50 mph are likely in those areas with isolated gusts to 60 mph possible creating fire weather concerns due to low humidities as well. Strong winds are also continuing over the outer coastal waters with gusts to 50 mph.

Outside of those areas, weather impacts are relatively low.
Temperatures will cool a few more degrees today, keeping highs below 80 in most valleys and 60s to low 70s elsewhere. Low clouds are expanding northwest across LA and Ventura Counties this morning with tops around 2500 feet.

A brief warm up is expected Sunday and Monday as onshore flow weakens by around 5mb and the marine layer depth lowers by 1000 feet or so. Highs inland expected to warm about 10 degrees from Saturday while coastal areas pick up 1-3 degrees. Even with this warmup, highs are still expected to be 3-6 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...21/231 AM.

Weak high pressure is expected to return Wed through the end of the week that will bring temperatures back to near or even slightly above normal. Not expecting any strong winds during the period except for the typical Antelope Valley breezes each afternoon. Overall very seasonable weather next week that will likely carry into the following week.

AVIATION
21/1144Z.

At 11Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3200 feet deep with an inversion top at 5500 feet with a temperature of 19 Celsius.

Moderate confidence in flight category forecast and timing.
Low confidence on winds at KWJF KPMD KSBA as nearby mountain wave activity could surface strong winds at any time through the period. Expected LLWS issues when winds are lighter at the airport.

KLAX...High confidence in ceilings staying above 025. Clearing to VFR could happen as early as 16Z or as late as 19Z. Southeast winds likely through 17Z, with a 50% chance of exceeding 8 knots at times.

KBUR...High confidence in ceilings staying above 015. Clearing to VFR could happen as early as 14Z or as late as 18Z. There is a 30% chance of northwest surface wind gusts or LLWS to 20 knots possible Sat 03-09Z.

MARINE
21/741 AM.

***HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY***

High confidence in prolonged and strong Gale Force northwest winds beyond 20 miles from shore through Saturday night, strongest of the whole event on Saturday. While Gale gusts have not materialized so far for the nearshore Central Coast waters and western Santa Barbara Channel, the Saturday peak is more pronounced with the highest risk of the week. Some projections even push the winds very close to the Ventura Coast (25% chance).
As such, will hoist one more Gale Warnings for those areas. All waters will see building and hazardously steep short period seas.
While winds will likely not reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) off Los Angeles and Orange Counties, a SCA is in effect for what should the the steepest seas on Saturday. Small craft should stay in safe harbor, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
High confidence in lowering winds and subsiding seas for the first half of next week, with abnormally large high tides each evening.
High-end SCA winds are still likely for the waters beyond 20 miles for shore on Monday, but winds will lower to more seasonal speeds by Tuesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone 345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 350-356-382-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Fire Weather Watch in effect from 1 PM PDT this afternoon through late tonight for zone 352. (See LAXRFWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones 353-376>378-381-383. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).