Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Avon, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 10 AM... After chilly morning lows in the upper teens to 20s degree range, arctic high pressure remains in control today with clear skies once again, but with weakening CAA airmass will slowly moderate as winds turn WSW but weakly in the 5 mph range this afternoon, and therefore highs still remain in the 40s, coolest OBX zones.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
As of 330 AM Sat...Weak WAA commences tonight as swrly flow inc a bit, though enough of an inversion for the evening with cont skc skies and calm to light winds allow temps to plummet as dry airmass per TD's in the teens remain. Later tonight, enough of a gradient looks to develop to pause the temp plummet, with temps slowly rising late. Lows will range from the mid/upr 20s interior to the 30s to near 40 beaches.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 4 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Near record cold temps expected Saturday - An unsettled pattern will develop Monday through Wednesday

Arctic high pressure will be centered across the Southeast Saturday with much below normal temps continuing. CAA wanes allow several degrees of warming over Friday but temps still around 10-15 degrees below normal with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Sfc high pressure will migrate offshore Sunday with southerly return flow bringing a warming trend early next week.

A broad upper trough will be present across much of the CONUS early to mid next week with a series shortwave moving through the flow aloft bringing several chances for precip across ENC.
The best chance for significant precip appears to come Wednesday as an amplified upper trough and attendant cold front approaches bringing the best forcing and moisture feed across the region. Highs expected in the mid to upper 50s Sunday with 60s early to mid next week, and potentially to lower 70s Tuesday as Sly winds increase ahead of the cold front. Arctic high pressure builds back into the area late in the week with much below normal temps returning.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 AM Sat...VFR SKC through the TAF pd. Calm wind this am will become generally wrly but remain around 5 kt or less this afternoon.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 415 AM Friday...VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend. Some of the coldest air of the season will be across the area Saturday and while the airmass will likely be too dry to support fog, however reduced visibilities due to steam fog will be possible for terminals near water. An unsettled pattern develops Monday through the middle of next week which will likely bring periods of sub-VFR conditions across rtes.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Cont light winds expected today with subsiding seas. Nwrly winds 5-15 kt early this morning, with ocnl gusts to 20 warmer Gulf waters will back wrly through today then swrly tonight, but remain light. Gradient inc later today, and by tonight SCA conditions develop over the warmer Gulf waters south of Oregon Inlet. Rest of the marine domain will be under a strong marine inversion due to the cold SST's, and winds remain well under SCA criteria. Could be a few gusts nearing SCA for the nrn waters esp late tonight into Sunday.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 420 AM Friday...Descent boating conditions expected Saturday with NW to W winds around 15 kt or less and seas around 2-4 ft. A shortwave trough and attendant low pressure system will pass across the northern Mid-Atlantic states Saturday night and Sunday serving to tighten the pressure gradients and could see low end SCA conditions across the waters. SW winds around 10-20 kt and seas around 2-4 ft will be dominant Monday and Tuesday with the high off the Southeast coast.

CLIMATE
Record Low temperatures for 12/07 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 20/1954 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 30/2010 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 19/1984 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 21/1997 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 19/1937 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 19/2010 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.