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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 955 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
.gale warning in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening...
Overnight..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers late this evening and early morning, then a chance of showers late.
Wed..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 5 seconds. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming W 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely. A chance of showers after midnight.

AMZ100 955 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. Low pressure off the coast lifts away from the area late tonight. A mid-level shortwave pushes through on Wednesday with hazardous marine conditions developing. High pressure will then build into the area through Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region on Sunday.

FXUS62 KMHX 060315 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1015 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure along the Carolina coast lifts away from the area late tonight followed by a mid-level shortwave pushing through on Wednesday. High pressure will then build into the area through Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 1015PM Tuesday...Latest surface analysis shows low pressure currently off the coast of Cape Hatteras. This low will continue to push NE'wards tonight and away from the OBX. Any shower activity associated with this low has pushed offshore and ENC should remain relatively quiet precip wise over the next few hours. Otherwise everything else forecast-wise remains on track.

Prev Disc...Low pressure SE of Cape Hatteras will slowly drift NNEward off the NC coast through this evening. Meanwhile, a robust upper trough digging across the Mid West will continue to push toward the area bringing improving jet dynamics through the overnight. Moisture is rather limited with this system but enough forcing will be present that we could see a few showers moving into the area late tonight. Temps tonight will be seasonably chilly with lows in the mid 30s inland to 40s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
As of 1015 PM Tuesday...The upper trough will continue to push across the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday with the trough axis sliding offshore around mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers will continue across the area until the axis moves offshore, but moisture will remain limited and QPF amounts will be light, generally less than a tenth of an inch. While the chances of this occuring are very low, there is a non-zero threat for some graupel to mix in with the shower activity especially during its onset Wed morning. However, even if this were to occur no impacts are expected from this. Given confidence in this to occur is so low, leaving only a mention in the AFD this evening for this possibility. Strong CAA will increase through the morning with NW wind gusts around 20-25 mph across inland areas to 30-40 mph across the OBX. Temps will be around 10 degrees below normal with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 425 AM Tuesday...A progressive pattern develops for the upcoming week into the weekend, with high pressure building in late in the week followed by a strong cold front possible by late weekend.

Wednesday night into Sunday...High pressure sets in behind Wednesday's shortwave, and begins a warming trend that will last through the Saturday. Strong southerly return flow will develop by late Saturday, building dew points back into the 50s by Sat afternoon. A complex low pressure system will move through the Ohio River Valley as the upper level trough digs south into the Southeast. 5th/00Z guidance suggest a more amplified, negatively-tilted upper trough than previous runs. Continued likely PoPs for showers ahead of and associated with the frontal passage on Sunday. Cannot rule out thunderstorms with Sunday's front, but still too early to mention thunder despite strong kinematics, given limited instability.

Monday...Sunday's strong front will move offshore late Sunday night into early Monday morning, with strong high pressure at the surface and aloft building in from the west on Monday. Temps return back to normal for mid December by Monday, with NW winds as the surface ridge approaches from the west.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 705 PM Tuesday... VFR conditions forecast to prevail through tonight through a deck of mid level clouds around 5-6 kft and some isolated shower activity is currently noted along the OBX in association with a low pressure system offshore right now. These mid level clouds and showers should quickly exit off to the north and east by midnight keeping conditions VFR across ENC. A strong upper trough will push through the area Wednesday bringing additional isolated to scattered showers across rtes which could bring occasional MVFR cigs. The upper trough axis pushes offshore around mid afternoon with pred VFR conditions returning by mid to late afternoon. Strong CAA will develop Wednesday with NW winds gusts to around 20-25 kt most terminals except 25-35 kt across the OBX.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 435 AM Tuesday...Predominant VFR conditions through the period. High pressure builds in from the southwest through the period. Southerly return flow develops by Saturday afternoon ahead of a strong cold front expected to cross the TAF sites on Sunday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 4 PM Tuesday...Low pressure SE of Cape Lookout will lift NNE just off the coast through this evening, then a strong mid level shortwave will push across the waters Wednesday. Currently seeing NE winds around 10-20 kt across the waters with seas around 2-4 ft. Gradients tighten some this evening with the passing of the low and could see some gusts around 25 kt, mainly across the central waters. Winds back to NNW Wednesday and increases to 20 to 30 kt as strong CAA develops. Frequent gusts around 35-40 kt expected across the coastal waters and continue the Gale Warning for the central waters and expanded to include the waters north to Duck and south to Surf City. Seas will gradually build to 3-5 ft overnight then to 5-8 ft on Wednesday, however offshore flow will keep seas around 2-4 ft nearshore south of Hatteras.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 4 PM Monday...Busy marine weather for portions of the long term period. Strong NNW winds continue through Wednesday evening, then gradually diminishes after midnight. Winds and seas diminish on Thursday as the surface high pressure moves over the waters, with light SW flow developing Friday as the high shifts offshore. By Saturday, the surface ridge is well offshore with southerly flow developing by the afternoon. A strong cold front is expected to cross the waters on Sunday with another round of strong-SCAs anticipated.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to midnight EST Wednesday night for AMZ136-137.
Gale Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ150-152- 154-156-158.

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Avon
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:08 AM EST     2.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:56 PM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:39 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Avon, North Carolina, Tide feet

Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:43 AM EST     3.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 06:38 AM EST     0.86 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:54 PM EST     3.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:11 PM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, Tide feet

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