Swan Quarter, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Swan Quarter, NC

April 23, 2024 4:24 AM EDT (08:24 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM
Moonrise 6:44 PM   Moonset 5:03 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 408 Am Edt Tue Apr 23 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Wednesday evening - .

Today - N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt early this afternoon, then becoming E late. Waves around 2 ft early this morning, then 1 ft.

Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with frequent gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with frequent gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.

Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Thu night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves around 2 ft, then 1 ft.

Sat - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

AMZ100 408 Am Edt Tue Apr 23 2024

Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure briefly builds into the area from the south through tonight followed by a frontal passage with limited moisture on Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area from the north for the latter half of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swan Quarter, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 230009 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 809 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure briefly builds into the area from the south through Tuesday followed by a frontal passage with limited moisture on Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area from the north for the latter half of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 745 PM Monday...

Early this evening, a ~1021mb surface high was located over central North Carolina, with low pressure well southeast of Cape Hatteras. In between the two features, a modest gradient is keeping winds up along, and just inland, of the coast.
Meanwhile, away from the coast, the gradient has relaxed enough to support lighter winds (<10mph). Aloft, an upper level trough axis was centered directly over ENC. Beneath the low, radar is showing some weak returns. Given how dry the low-levels are, I suspect most of this isn't reaching the ground, and surface obs appear to confirm this suspicion.

Through the night, the high will shift south towards the coast, putting it centered just to the south/southwest of ENC. Winds are expected to remain light through the night, but there may be just enough of a gradient to keep winds around 5 mph, except for sheltered locations. Looking around the area, dewpoints are mostly in the mid to upper 30s. Despite a light northerly wind, short-term guidance doesn't indicate a significant push of drier air, and it appears that values will generally hold in the mid-30s. Meanwhile, air temps are still in the 50s for much of the area. Through mostly radiative processes, temps are expected to fall into the 30s/40s tonight. However, it appears there are just enough limitations to prevent a more widespread frost potential overnight. Probabilistically, there is a 20-40% chance of frost along/west of HWY 17. With all of this in mind, we'll continue to hold off on a Frost Advisory.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
As of 3 PM Monday... Upper level flow turns more zonal in nature with general W-NW'rly flow aloft while at the surface high pressure ridge pushes to the east eventually becoming centered off the SE Coast by Tue afternoon. Upper level subsidence will result in clear to partly cloudy skies on Tue with light and variable winds in the morning eventually turning to a SW'rly direction Tue afternoon as the ridge becomes centered offshore. Do expect much warmer conditions on Tue with a lack of cloud cover and increasing low level thicknesses overspreading ENC as weak WAA begins, with highs forecast to get into the 60s along the OBX and low 70s inland.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 315 AM Monday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term with high pressure dominating early in the week, mostly dry front moving through mid-week, and another high pressure setting up through the weekend.

Wednesday...Low sweeps to our north, pinching the pressure gradient with the high to our south. This looks to prevent decoupling Wednesday morning, leaving lows in the upper 40s to start the day inland. Along the coast lows will be in the mid to upper 50s. High pressure to our south moves offshore through the day Wednesday, causing winds to veer from southerly to westerly through the day. Wednesday looks to be the gustiest day in the long term, with ample mixing allowing gusts of 20kts inland, slightly higher for OBX. Fortunately RHs will be well above 35%, so fire weather should not be a concern. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s inland, low 70s for the coast, aided by the south veering west flow through the day. Wednesday night a dry cold front will move through the region from NW to SE. Atmospheric column looks to be fairly dry during the weak cold front passage, preventing the inclusion of mentionable PoPs for Wednesday. As the front moves through Wednesday night, northerly wind gusts will be increasing, but should remain below 30 kts.

Thursday to Sunday...High pressure to our north keeps us dry, with high temps incrementally increasing each day. Into the weekend, omega block setup initiates at upper levels. This will allow the high pressure to linger through the remainder of the long term. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way. If the low moves north, we will have less chances of precip in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. Removed all PoP mentions with this update for Saturday as high looks to shelter us from any incoming precip. Sunday the high to our NE moves south, settling just offshore or off the SC coast as we get into next week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Wednesday/...
As of 745 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

1) VFR conditions likely (60-80% chance) through Tuesday

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure over central NC will shift south to the coast overnight, then shift offshore on Tuesday. With the high over the area, winds will be light through the night. The exception is for coastal terminals where a modest, 10-15kt N/NE will continue for several more hours. Conditions tonight do not appear supportive of widespread FG. However, with low temp/dewpoint spreads, I suspect there will be periods of low- impact shallow FG (MIFG). As the high shifts offshore on Tuesday, winds will become S/SW, but remain relatively light (5-15kt).

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through Friday with high pressure dominating the long term.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 745 PM Monday...

The forecast is mostly on-track this evening. The main change I made was to increase seas across the northern and central waters to better align with recent buoy data. In light of this, it now looks like 5- 6ft will linger longer than forecast north of Cape Hatteras, and I have extended the northern waters SCA out further in time.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Gusty conditions will gradually ease tonight and shower activity along the coastal waters will end as deepening low pressure well offshore begins to lift NE'wards away from the North Carolina waters this evening and is replaced by a ridge of high pressure. This will allow for SCA's to gradually be taken down from west to east this afternoon and evening with the first SCA coming down across the northern waters and sounds as of this update. In general 15-25 kt NE'rly winds with gusts in excess of 20-30 kts will ease tonight down to about 5-15 kts with gusts in excess of 15-20 kt. This will allow for the SCA's to fall across the Pamlico Sound as well. As high pressure continues to build east over the area on Tue 5-15 kt winds will become light and variable at times as winds switch from a N'rly direction Tue morning to a S'rly direction Tue afternoon. 6-8 ft seas across our coastal waters will gradually lower as well falling to 3-5 ft across our northern waters early tonight ending SCA's here and then to 3-5 ft across our southern waters by Tue morning ending SCA's here. Some backswell from the deepening low well offshore could keep 4-6 ft seas across our coastal waters into Wed allowing SCA's to persist

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...6 ft seas (7-8ft for gulf stream) will linger through Wednesday from the one-two punch of the deepening low offshore Tuesday and stronger pressure gradient winds Wednesday. Wind gusts for coastal waters and Pamlico Sound will be near 25 kts during the morning/early afternoon hours Wednesday from a pinched gradient, before decreasing Wednesday evening. As a dry cold front moves southeastward Wednesday night, northerly winds will pick up behind it, gusting near 25 kts for all waters except for the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers, and coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Surf City. Remainder of the long term looks to be quiet with seas settling to 3-5 feet Thursday-Friday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi55 min N 12G13 53°F 55°F30.13
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 46 mi55 min N 6G8.9 49°F 56°F30.16


Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KNBT0 sm33 minNNW 0610 smClear55°F43°F62%30.14
Link to 5 minute data for KNBT


Wind History from NBT
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Tide / Current for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
   
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Ocracoke
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Tue -- 02:47 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:00 AM EDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:00 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 08:19 PM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina, Tide feet
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Tide / Current for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina (2)
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Ocracoke
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Tue -- 02:43 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:17 AM EDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:38 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 08:31 PM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina (2), Tide feet
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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Morehead City, NC,



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