Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Swan Quarter, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 3 PM Mon...Jet streak remains over ENC tonight while upper level trough in Eastern Canada and the Great Lakes region gradually digs SE'wards towards the Northeastern CONUS. Mid level shortwave to the south pushes further east into the Atlantic while the next and stronger shortwave begins to dive SE'wards from Manitoba into the Upper Midwest tonight. At the surface any cloud cover associated with a weak low off the GA/FL coast will quickly push offshore by this evening with clearing skies expected tonight. Winds will once again become calm to light and veer from a SW'rly direction to a NW'rly direction by pre dawn Tue. Winds will be light enough for good radiational cooling, and have therefore fcst the lower end of guidance. Lows range from the mid 20s on the mainland to the low/mid 30s beaches.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 3 PM Mon...Quiet conditions will persist. Thicknesses/hts will be a touch cooler on Tue, and with the light nwrly breezes, temps will struggle to reach the mid 40s for most, with low 40s nrn OBX, despite the mo sunny skies. For Tue night, next reinforcing arctic cold front will push through by around midnight. This will bring inc overnight winds. Have fcst a blend of the MAV/MET/ECS MOS guide for lows, as NBM has a cold bias with mixed bndry layer nighttime winds, and have therefore inc min T's a degree or two. Nevertheless, winds will be mixed enough to get apparent T's into the low/mid teens for most, and looks like it will be cold enough for cold advisories to be hoisted for all of ENC late Tue night to early Wed am.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 230 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Below to well below normal temperatures through mid-week

- Moderating temperatures this weekend, with an increased risk of rain

Tuesday - Thursday: A notably strong shortwave, and an accompanying cold front, will swing through the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday night, ushering in a renewed surge of below to well below normal temperatures. The combination of breezy northwest winds and well below normal temperatures should support widespread "feels like" temperatures in the single digits and teens. If this occurs, this will likely be the coldest night of the winter season thus far, and will be more than supportive of Cold Weather headlines for at least a portion of the area. The latest probabilistic guidance gives a 40- 60% chance of seeing "feels like" temperatures fall below 15 degrees for most of ENC.
I suspect the reason the probability isn't higher is mainly due to model differences regarding the strength of the wind.
Stronger winds would lead to lower wind chill values, and vice- versa.

Continued CAA during the day Wednesday should hold temperatures in the 30s for highs. This is noteworthy as some locations could flirt with record cold highs. By Wednesday night, high pressure will begin to build in, setting up good radiational cooling conditions for much of the area. With notably cold thicknesses in place, and good radiational cooling conditions, we'll lean closer to the 10th percentile of available guidance for lows Wednesday night. While temperatures are expected to be colder Wednesday night compared to Tuesday night, the wind is expected to be lighter, and wind chill, or temperature, values may not get quite cold enough for Cold Weather Advisory criteria. It will be close. Colder than normal regardless.

Friday - Monday: The forecast becomes much less certain during this timeframe. From a big picture standpoint, a notably amplified pattern is forecast to develop, with a deep trough across the middle of the U.S., and deep southwesterly flow across the Southeast U.S. At minimum, this should lead to a notable warming and moistening trend for at least a couple of days. By late in the weekend or early next week, a cold front is forecast to slide east through the coastal Carolinas beneath the continued SW flow aloft.

It should be noted that this type of pattern can be highly variable in model guidance several days out. Sometimes, fronts beneath SW flow aloft can get hung up, or slowed, by shortwaves traversing the region. This leads to notably different frontal placement and timing, as well as sensible weather. For those who look at model guidance, it's encouraged that you not focus on any one model in this pattern. Case in point, model forecast highs for next Monday range from the 20s to the 50s. A slower front will allow milder temps to last longer into next week, and vice versa. This is also noteworthy as this is the difference between rain and highs in the 50s, or highs in the 20s with wintry precip. For now, the official forecast will show mild temperatures through Sunday, followed by a cooling trend early next week. We'll also continue to only advertise liquid precipitation as the greatest signal for precip looks to be focused on Saturday when temperatures are expected to be well above freezing. Stay tuned as we continue to see how guidance trends heading into early next week.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday afternoon/...
As of 1235 PM Mon...VFR conditions persist for all TAF sites this afternoon with VFR conditions forecast to continue through the period. Little to no impact is expected from mid-to-high clouds currently streaming in from the southwest as ceilings will remain above 10kft today. Skies then clear from northwest- to-southeast through the this evening as clouds shift offshore.
Light southwesterly winds become calm tonight. Northwesterly winds increase tomorrow morning to around 10 knots (15 knots OBX) with gusts of 15-20 knots possible.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES:

- VFR conditions expected to prevail for several days

- Gusty NW winds will accompany a cold front late Tuesday into Tuesday night

A cold front will move through the area Tuesday night, and is expected to be accompanied by gusty northwest winds. Beyond the gusty winds, the risk of significant aviation impacts appears low over the next several days.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tue night/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Rather benign boating conditions across our waters through much of Tue. Pressure gradient will pick up slightly by Tue AM and winds will become nwrly 10-20 kt with a few gusts up to 25 kts at times for the ctrl waters where the warm Gulf resides. Stronger gradient arrives Tue night with dry arctic front, and good mixing will produce gales for much of the coastal waters, with SCA winds up to 30 kts expected for the sounds and rivers. Gale watches in effect for all the coastal waters with SCA's for the sounds and rivers.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Gale Watch has been issued for the coastal waters from Duck to Cape Lookout

- A cold front will bring increased marine impacts Tuesday through Wednesday

A notable cold front will sweep east through the region Tuesday night with an increased risk of 25-35kt winds, and 6ft+ seas.
Due to the expected strong cold air advection, wind gusts of 35-40kt appear likely (60-80% chance) for much of the coastal waters, but especially north of Cape Lookout. Given the high confidence, we opted to hoist a Gale Watch for the waters where confidence in 34kt+ wind gusts is the highest. Elsewhere, widespread 25kt wind gusts appears likely, and additional marine headlines will be needed. For the coastal waters south of Cape Lookout, there may tend to be more variable wind gusts due to less mixing over the cooler near-shore waters vs deeper mixing over the warmer waters adjacent to the Gulf Stream. We'll hold off on a Gale Watch here due to lower confidence compared to areas further north. During the strongest winds, seas are forecast to peak in the 6-9 ft range in the Gale Watch area, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. Winds should finally lay down below 25kt by Wednesday afternoon.

Additional upper level waves, and associated cold fronts, may move through the ENC waters later in the week, but guidance differ on the timing and strength of these waves, as well as the impact to winds and seas. The most likely scenario is another round of elevated winds and seas, especially by the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night for AMZ150-152-154-156.