Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Swan Quarter, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Waning shower and thunderstorm threat through the rest of the evening with lingering low clouds.

2) Cooler, drier, and more seasonable behind the frontal passage this weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Main front is now making its way across eastern NC this hour with band of showers and an isolated thunderstorm now focused east of Highway 17. All precipitation should work offshore by midnight, and until then overall environment does not support an ongoing severe threat. Lingering low clouds are likely into the overnight hours before a surge of dry air ushers in mainly clear skies to start Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A more seasonably dry airmass will be ushered in for the weekend behind the front. Expect a return to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Sat, then cooler yet for Sun with 60-65. Lows will be in the 40s, with some 30s for some of the normally colder spots. We will have to monitor the temp forecast for any frost concerns Sunday morning.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Forecast confidence is moderate over the next 6 hours and high through 00z Sunday.

Main cold front is currently working its way across eastern NC with waning band of precipitation primarily affecting areas east of a line from OCW-EWN-NJM. Thunder threat will be confined southeast of EWN, but overall severe threat appears to be done with the main hazard being an isolated gust up to around 25-30 kt.

Beyond this threat, question remains on how long post-frontal stratus will hang around before dry air scours it out. REFS probabilities show rapidly declining CIGs through 06z, but LAMP hangs on to at least MVFR until around sunrise. Normally would give more credence towards the LAMP as this is more in line with typical post-frontal patterns here, but upstream obs do show a strong clearing trend. Therefore, leaned forecast towards a faster erosion of sub-VFR cigs and improvement to VFR overnight.

Only some cirri to contend with tomorrow as high pressure takes control with NW winds up to 10 kt.

Outlook: An extended period of VFR conditions is expected much drier airmass remains over the region.

MARINE
Increasing southerly winds through all area waters as a cold front approaches from the west later today. Gusts should remain generally below 25 knots ahead of the front. Behind the front, winds switch to the north/northwest, gusting to near 20 knots.
Gusts exceeding 25 kt will likely be concentrated beyond 20nm offshore, so no headlines are in effect. Seas will persist at 3-5 ft nearshore and near 4-6 ft offshore through today. The cold front moves through this evening into the overnight hours for our waters, and ahead of this boundary strong thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and a brief waterspout are possible.
Behind the front, high builds in and winds gradually lighten through Saturday.

Outlook (Saturday night through Tuesday): High builds in this weekend into next week, keeping winds below 20 kts and skies rain-free. Despite the decrease in winds, elevated seas may linger through the weekend for 20-60nm zones at around 4-6 feet, and an isolated 6 foot wave is possible just within 20nm primarily for waters in Raleigh Bay.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.