Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Swan Quarter, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dangerous cold expected Saturday and Sunday, and an Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect for the coldest period, Saturday night to Sunday morning when wind chills could drop from around 5 degrees to below 0 across most of ENC.

MARINE...Storm and Gale Warnings remain in effect from late tonight through Sunday morning as very strong winds (with gusts up to 50 kts) develop behind an Arctic cold front.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A northern stream shortwave and attendant intense Arctic front will cross the region overnight with very cold temperatures advecting into the area through the day Saturday and Saturday night. Sufficient forcing with the shortwave to bring light rain or even a mix with snow across the northern tier late this afternoon and evening, however the impacts from the precipitation is expected to be minimal as sfc temps will be initially be above freezing and strong post frontal winds aiding in drying the roads as temps fall below freezing late tonight. The winds and cold will be the primary impacts as we move through the remainder of the weekend. Strong winds will develop Saturday morning and continue through Saturday night, leading to extremely cold wind chill values, especially overnight.

Highs on Saturday will only reach the low to mid 30s with wind chill values remaining in the teens. The coldest values will be across the northern tier with wind chill vaules around 10-15 degrees and have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for this area Saturday into Saturday evening. Winds chills will drop to near to below 0 degrees Saturday night as air temps fall into the lower teens, and an Extreme Cold Watch continues for all of ENC for this threat. Very cold conditions continue Sunday and Sunday night and a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for portions of the FA during this period. Record lows are possible at a few locations Sunday and Monday mornings, see CLIMATE section below for current record values.

The strong northwest winds (320-330 degree) will bring elevated waters levels on the soundside Hatteras and Ocracoke Island, generally on the order of 1-2 ft with only minor impacts expected.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Expect VFR conditions through most of the TAF pd. Some tempo MVFR possible at KPGV where best low level moisture will be with a fropa this evening. There is also a chance at a brief period light rain across eastern NC, although have kept precip mentions out of the TAFs with the exception of the aforementioned tempo at KPGV. Winds remain light through the period generally 10 kts or less through evening, then become gusty out of the NW tonight, peaking in intensity on Sat with gusts of 25-30 kt expected.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR as high pressure builds in. Winds ease for Sunday. Could see some lower ceilings and Tuesday as a warm approaches the region from the south.

MARINE
Winds and seas have diminished to below SCA criteria late this morning but conditons will quickly deteriorate overnight behind a strong Arctic cold front, with Storm conditions expected across most of the coastal waters, and with high end Gale conditions elsewhere.

Winds will begin to increase again this evening ahead of the Arctic front to WSW 15-25 kts, strongest over the southern coastal waters, and then will switch abruptly to the NW behind the front after midnight. Winds will initially increase to NW 25-35 kts with gusts 40-45 kts early Sunday morning. Winds then surge stronger by mid Sunday morning to NW 30-40 kts with gusts 45-50 kts through early Sunday night. Winds then begin subside slowly overnight into Monday morning. Seas will be 6-10 ft by Saturday morning, and then increase to 8-12 ft by Saturday evening, before slowly subsiding into Sunday morning.

Outlook: Winds will continue to improve Sunday and Monday, though lingering seas will keep Small Craft conditions over the coastal waters through at least Monday morning. Light NW and then W winds expected into Wednesday when winds increase ahead of the next front.

CLIMATE
Record low temps for 2/8 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 15/1947 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 11/1985 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 14/1977 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 15/1977 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 10/1977 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 15/1977 (NCA ASOS)

Record low temps for 2/9 (Monday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 12/1970 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 15/1970 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 12/1934 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 10/1970 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 16/1995 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 18/1995 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 11 PM EST Saturday for NCZ029.
Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for NCZ029-044-079-090>092-094-193>196-198-199- 204-205.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday for NCZ045>047-081-203.
Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for NCZ045>047-080-081-203.
Wind Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 5 AM EST Sunday for NCZ196- 203>205.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ131- 230-231.
Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ135.
Gale Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ136- 137.
Storm Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for AMZ150.
Storm Warning from 8 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154- 156.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ158.