Wednesday, August12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Swan Quarter, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:01PM Wednesday August 12, 2020 8:04 PM EDT (00:04 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:37PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 659 Pm Edt Wed Aug 12 2020
Tonight..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms late this evening. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the evening.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swan Quarter, NC
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location: 35.45, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 122346 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 746 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will ridge in from the Atlantic through the rest of the week, while a trough of low pressure remains across the Southeastern U.S. A weak backdoor cold front will move into the area over the weekend and stall. A series of lows will move along the front Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. As of 715 PM Wed . The latest radar returns are showing most of the afternoon showers and thunderstorms have either diminished or weakened. There remains a few passing showers moving onshore, but this will be short-lived, then expect a dry forecast through midnight. A weak low/inverted trough off the Carolina Coast will begin to creep northward after midnight with showers to spread northward towards the coastal counties prior to sunrise, with fairly decent covg of showers expected along the coast in the early morning. PW's will be quite high generally 2-2.25" late, supporting the threat for some heavier rain rates developing.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. As of 3 PM Wed . Aforementioned coastal trough/weak low will overspread E NC through the day, with sct to numerous showers and embedded thunder expected. While the threat for some gusty winds will exist with convection, the main threat is going to be heavy rain and minor flooding, as PW's aoa 2.25" will envelope the region. High temps will struggle into the mid/upr 80s due to the widespread clouds and showers.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 330 AM Wednesday . Wet weather along with seasonable temperatures are expected through the long term period, as a closed low currently over MO moves east and evolves into an open wave over the southeast this weekend. Ample mid level troughing is then expected to develop over the Eastern US for much of next week as a strong northern stream upper trough moves across southern Canada and the US northern tier. At the surface, the typical Atlantic high/inland lee trough pattern will persist through late week, then a wavy cold front will move into NC and stall while a series of weak lows move along it and enhance rainfall across the region. Several inches of rain will possible over this period with the potential for local flooding.

The air mass across Eastern NC will be supportive of locally heavy rains with cyclonic flow, dewpoints in the 70s, PW values AOA 2" and sufficient instability through the long term period. While timing individual rainfall events are still uncertain, there is enough confidence to forecast likely PoPs through the weekend with best chances during peak heating inland, then along the immediate coast overnights. Will cap PoPs at chance for early next week, but these may need to be raised with subsequent forecasts if current model trends continue.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Thursday/ . As of 715 PM Wed . High confidence in VFR conditions for the next 6 hours. The daytime showers and thunderstorms are diminishing leading to a mostly clear start, then onshore clouds will start to move in after midnight. TAF sites at KPGV and KISO received rain this afternoon and will most likely see patchy fog and low stratus to develop after midnight, while the coastal sites (KEWN & KOAJ) will likely see low stratus. Scattered showers will start to increase from south to north after midnight, impacting the coastal TAF sites, first, then the inland sites late morning. Most TAF sites will start out around MVFR conditions around 12z, and will gradually increase to VFR conditions by early afternoon. Some showers can be heavy at times leading to brief MVFR or IFR.

Long Term /Thursday night through Mon/ . As of 145 PM Wednesday . As we enter a wetter pattern, sub VFR conditions are more frequent in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms which are forecast through the period, especially during peak heating. The greater rainfall chances increases the likelihood of patchy early morning fog and/or stratus.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Thursday/ . As of 715 PM Wed . Winds will continue out of serly direction 5-15 kts across the marine zones. Nearshore waves will be 1-2 ft with offshore waves 2-3 feet. Winds veer more to the S later Thu afternoon, and some inc in speeds possible esp for the ctrl/srn waters, though conditions remain below SCA levels. Some 4 ft sets develop by afternoon across the outer waters.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/ . As of 330 AM Wednesday . Good boating conditions will continue through most of the long term. Expect S to SW winds 10-15 kt, with occasional gusts to around 20 kt each afternoon/evening through Fri evening as the sea breeze develops and differential heating tightens the gradient a bit locally. A wavy cold front will move into the waters and stall over the weekend. Winds will become W around 10 kt Fri night, then N/NE 10-15 kt Sat and E 10-15 kt Sunday. Seas are forecast to be 2-4 ft through SAt then building to 3-5 ft Sunday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . TL/BM SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . JME AVIATION . JME/BM MARINE . JME/TL/BM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi46 min SSW 1.9 G 6 83°F 83°F1016.9 hPa
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 46 mi52 min S 9.9 G 13 84°F 88°F1016.5 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 55 mi46 min S 11 G 13 82°F 86°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC31 mi68 minSSE 910.00 miA Few Clouds86°F73°F67%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3S3S4S3S3SW4S3CalmSE5SE4SE5SE8SE8SE9SE10S10S13
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2 days agoS5SW4S3S4S4SW3SW3S4SW5W5SW4SW5SW3W3E64S8S5W6CalmS4S5SW4S5

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina (2)
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:17 AM EDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:44 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:52 PM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:55 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.80.90.90.80.70.50.40.30.30.30.50.70.91.11.110.90.80.60.50.40.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:01 AM EDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:44 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:44 PM EDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:10 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.