Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swan Quarter, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 122346 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 746 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will ridge in from the Atlantic through the rest of the week, while a trough of low pressure remains across the Southeastern U.S. A weak backdoor cold front will move into the area over the weekend and stall. A series of lows will move along the front Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. As of 715 PM Wed . The latest radar returns are showing most of the afternoon showers and thunderstorms have either diminished or weakened. There remains a few passing showers moving onshore, but this will be short-lived, then expect a dry forecast through midnight. A weak low/inverted trough off the Carolina Coast will begin to creep northward after midnight with showers to spread northward towards the coastal counties prior to sunrise, with fairly decent covg of showers expected along the coast in the early morning. PW's will be quite high generally 2-2.25" late, supporting the threat for some heavier rain rates developing.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. As of 3 PM Wed . Aforementioned coastal trough/weak low will overspread E NC through the day, with sct to numerous showers and embedded thunder expected. While the threat for some gusty winds will exist with convection, the main threat is going to be heavy rain and minor flooding, as PW's aoa 2.25" will envelope the region. High temps will struggle into the mid/upr 80s due to the widespread clouds and showers.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 330 AM Wednesday . Wet weather along with seasonable temperatures are expected through the long term period, as a closed low currently over MO moves east and evolves into an open wave over the southeast this weekend. Ample mid level troughing is then expected to develop over the Eastern US for much of next week as a strong northern stream upper trough moves across southern Canada and the US northern tier. At the surface, the typical Atlantic high/inland lee trough pattern will persist through late week, then a wavy cold front will move into NC and stall while a series of weak lows move along it and enhance rainfall across the region. Several inches of rain will possible over this period with the potential for local flooding.

The air mass across Eastern NC will be supportive of locally heavy rains with cyclonic flow, dewpoints in the 70s, PW values AOA 2" and sufficient instability through the long term period. While timing individual rainfall events are still uncertain, there is enough confidence to forecast likely PoPs through the weekend with best chances during peak heating inland, then along the immediate coast overnights. Will cap PoPs at chance for early next week, but these may need to be raised with subsequent forecasts if current model trends continue.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Thursday/ . As of 715 PM Wed . High confidence in VFR conditions for the next 6 hours. The daytime showers and thunderstorms are diminishing leading to a mostly clear start, then onshore clouds will start to move in after midnight. TAF sites at KPGV and KISO received rain this afternoon and will most likely see patchy fog and low stratus to develop after midnight, while the coastal sites (KEWN & KOAJ) will likely see low stratus. Scattered showers will start to increase from south to north after midnight, impacting the coastal TAF sites, first, then the inland sites late morning. Most TAF sites will start out around MVFR conditions around 12z, and will gradually increase to VFR conditions by early afternoon. Some showers can be heavy at times leading to brief MVFR or IFR.

Long Term /Thursday night through Mon/ . As of 145 PM Wednesday . As we enter a wetter pattern, sub VFR conditions are more frequent in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms which are forecast through the period, especially during peak heating. The greater rainfall chances increases the likelihood of patchy early morning fog and/or stratus.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Thursday/ . As of 715 PM Wed . Winds will continue out of serly direction 5-15 kts across the marine zones. Nearshore waves will be 1-2 ft with offshore waves 2-3 feet. Winds veer more to the S later Thu afternoon, and some inc in speeds possible esp for the ctrl/srn waters, though conditions remain below SCA levels. Some 4 ft sets develop by afternoon across the outer waters.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/ . As of 330 AM Wednesday . Good boating conditions will continue through most of the long term. Expect S to SW winds 10-15 kt, with occasional gusts to around 20 kt each afternoon/evening through Fri evening as the sea breeze develops and differential heating tightens the gradient a bit locally. A wavy cold front will move into the waters and stall over the weekend. Winds will become W around 10 kt Fri night, then N/NE 10-15 kt Sat and E 10-15 kt Sunday. Seas are forecast to be 2-4 ft through SAt then building to 3-5 ft Sunday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . TL/BM SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . JME AVIATION . JME/BM MARINE . JME/TL/BM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	35 mi	46 min	SSW 1.9 G 6	83°F	83°F		1016.9 hPa
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC	46 mi	52 min	S 9.9 G 13	84°F	88°F		1016.5 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	55 mi	46 min	S 11 G 13	82°F	86°F		1016.5 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC	31 mi	68 min	SSE 9	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	86°F	73°F	67%	1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina (2)

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Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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