Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Swan Quarter, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 061729 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1229 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure slide offshore today as the next cold front crosses late tonight into early Saturday morning. High pressure rebuilds over the area this weekend. A stronger cold front will move through Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1200 PM Fri . Temps rebounded quickly after a chilly morning and are seeing temps from the mid 50s nrn sections and OBX to the mid 60s along the Crystal Coast as we move into midday. Clouds are increasing from the west and expect mostly cloudy to cloudy skies this afternoon and don't expect much additional warming today. KMHX radar is showing a few elevated returns, but have not seen any ground truth yet as the sub-cloud layers are very dry, as shown in the 12z KMHX sounding with PW values of only 0.29 inches, so it will take some time to saturate the lower levels with far western sections having the best chance of light rain moving in late this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/. As of 230 AM Fri . The cold front will cross the area late night into early Saturday morning, bringing light rain showers across the ENC. As this frontal passage pushes through moisture is limited, but think the best chances for measurable rainfall continues to be across the southern half of the forecast area where the highest precip water values are located. Afterward, high pressure builds into the region late in the forecast period. Expect overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and mid/upper 40s along the coast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 3 AM Fri . Unsettled weather is likely for Sunday night through at least Tuesday night as deep moisture returns ahead of a strong cold front.

Saturday through Sunday . Strong high pressure will pass to our north Saturday into Sunday with cooler temperatures in the low/mid 50s Sat accompanied by gusty north winds. Rather chilly Saturday night as winds diminish inland, allowing temperatures to drop to the lower 30s, and upper 30s to low 40s along the Outer Banks. With the high moving east of the area Sunday, winds veer to E/ESE with temperatures moderating to the upper 50s to lower 60s. A weak coastal trough tries to develop along the SE coast Sunday, and could see light showers move onshore during the afternoon.

Sunday Night through Thursday . The combination of a deepening mid- level trough, mid-level shortwave energy and precipitable water values that will increase to 1.25 inches or better will lead to a more unsettled weather pattern with better chances of showers Sunday night and then off and on through midday Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Per trends in guidance, the highest QPF and PoPs will be Sunday night and again Tuesday night. With the more southerly flow, high temperatures will be above normal Monday and Tuesday. Highs Monday will be well into the 60s with a few lower 70s possible Tuesday. The strong cold front will push through the area late Tue night into early Wednesday. Much cooler air behind this front, with highs in the 50s Wed, and may struggle in some spots to hit 50 deg Thu. Widespread lows near or below freezing Thursday morning.

AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /through Saturday afternoon/ . As of 1230 PM Thurs . High confidence in VFR conditions into tonight, then low confidence in MVFR conditions until Saturday morning. Mid to high clouds are rapidly filling the skies over eastern NC this afternoon and will continue to increase through the day. A very dry layer exists from the surface up to about 10kft which will moisten slightly in the next few hours, but don't expect ceilings to fall much beyond 7-8kft. The exception lies with OAJ/EWN where widely scattered rain showers are possible and local drops in ceiling to MVFR are possible. Scattered MVFR conditions are possible Saturday morning into the afternoon as northerly winds increase and become gusty behind a passing front overnight.

Long Term /Saturday night through Tuesday/ . As of 3 AM Fri . VFR conditions are expected to prevail Saturday into Sunday as strong high pressure moves north of the region. Unsettled weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday with scattered showers and periods of sub-VFR.

MARINE. Short Term /Through tonight/ . As of 700 AM Fri . High pressure is centered over the coastal waters this morning providing light and variable winds and seas of 1-2 ft. The high will move eastward, allowing for winds to veer to the SW 5-15 knots by this afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. The frontal passage will push through late tonight into early Saturday morning, resulting a northerly wind surge of 20-25 knots behind the front. Seas will build to 3-5 ft over the northern/central waters and 2-4 ft south, late tonight. Small Craft Advisory goes in effect for all coastal waters and Sounds starting after midnight.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/ . As of 3 AM Fri . An active weather pattern this weekend through early next week will result in hazardous boating conditions with strong winds at times and a prolonged period of elevated seas AOA 6 ft. Gusty N/NNE winds 20-25 kt expected Sat behind a cold front. Seas will build quickly Saturday morning from north to south with the surge, peaking at 6-9 ft. SCA headlines are up for the coastal waters and sounds. N/NE winds 15-25 kt will continue Sat night with seas slowly subsiding late. Sunday NE/E winds 10-20 kt will veer to SE late with seas 3-5 ft building to 4-6 ft Sun night. Mon through Tue winds ahead of a cold front will be S/SW 15-25 kt with seas 6-10 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . SK SHORT TERM . BM LONG TERM . JME/CQD AVIATION . CQD/MS MARINE . CQD/BM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	35 mi	64 min	N 1.9 G 1.9	54°F	53°F		1022.7 hPa
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC	46 mi	64 min	S 7 G 8	51°F	52°F		1022.6 hPa
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	55 mi	64 min	S 2.9 G 4.1	60°F	54°F		1022.8 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC	31 mi	92 min	SW 7	10.00 mi	Fair	65°F	37°F	37%	1023.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina (2)

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Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (13,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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