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FXUS62 KGSP 030141 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 941 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
As dry and cooler high pressure moves off the East Coast tonight and Wednesday, the heat wave will again become established for the second half of the week. Hot and humid conditions are expected over the weekend with Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms from Thursday through Sunday, especially over the mountains.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 940 PM EDT Tuesday: No major changes were needed as the forecast remains on track. Dry conditions continue across the forecast area and some stratocu is noted across portions of the mountain zones and NC Foothills this evening. Cirrus continues streaming across the western Carolinas from the north as well.

Otherwise, dry sfc high extends from the Hudson Valley down the East Coast this evening will move off the coast tonight, allowing low- level flow to reorient to SE. This may allow some low clouds to possibly develop mainly west of I-26 toward dawn. No fog is expected though. Near-normal temperatures and more seasonable humidity look to return Wednesday; vertical profiles are still subsident but more cumulus can be expected, and a few showers can't be ruled out over the southwest NC ridges. This warrants a small area of 20%-ish PoPs there.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday: The mid to upper level ridging across the southeastern states will weaken over the short range period. This will unfortunately re-orient the surface high pressure pattern, which will shift the pleasant northeasterly flow of today around to the southwest by Independence Day Thursday. This change in flow will bring the higher heat and humidity back to the area. Temperatures will be warming each day with readings in the Piedmont reaching the mid 90s Thursday and mid to upper 90s Friday. With dewpoints climbing back into the lower 70s in the Piedmont, heat index readings will approach 105 on Friday afternoon and thus a Heat Advisory may be needed particularly for the lower Piedmont and Charlotte areas.

Heat and humidity will return to the mountains also. However, this should lead to early development of convection each day keeping temperatures in check.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday: A system in the Ohio Valley will push a weak cold front toward the area and bring a more active convective pattern with it on Saturday. Storms should develop in the mountains and push into the Piedmont in the afternoon. However, conditions will be hot and humid prior to any storm develop with heat index values again around 105 degrees in the lower Piedmont and Charlotte areas.

With more moisture in the area due to the front lingering across the area, expect temperatures to be slightly less hot and there to be an active convective pattern Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Messages...

1) Dry and VFR through the 00Z TAF Period

2) Winds Will Mostly Favor a Southerly and Easterly Component through Wednesday

3) A FEW to SCT Low Clouds May Develop Around Daybreak at the SC Upstate Terminals

At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through the 00Z TAF period again thanks to dry high pressure remaining over the terminals. Winds at KAVL and KCLT will remain SE'ly this evening into tonight. Winds at KHKY will remain VRB this evening into tonight while winds across the SC Upstate terminals start out E/ESE'ly this evening, turning NE'ly overnight into daybreak Wednesday. Skies would be mostly clear this evening into late tonight, but cloud cover looks to increase slightly (and possible lower) for the SC Upstate terminals from ~10Z- 13Z but should remain FEW to SCT, with bases ranging from 030-035.
Fog development is not expected. Winds at KAVL and KHKY will turn more S'ly Wednesday morning while winds at KCLT remain SE'ly. Winds across the SC Upstate terminals will gradually turn S/SE'ly throughout Wednesday morning. Winds should remain light overnight, becoming 3-6 kts by mid-morning Wednesday. Diurnal cumulus look to return again on Wednesday thanks to SE'ly flow.

Outlook: A return of more typical mid-summer humidity and diurnal convection returns Thursday into the weekend leading to possible restrictions each afternoon/early evening. Fog and/or low stratus may develop each morning, especially for areas that received rain the previous day.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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