NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 5:55 PM Friday: Convection remains widely sct across our area early this evening, with the only cells currently producing lightning over the NC Piedmont. The latest CAM trends seem to be more pessimistic wrt convective coverage through the rest of the evening, but they still suggest that some activity could linger thru late tonight and into the overnight.

Otherwise, the main story over the next 24 hours will be a brief pattern shift that will feature a positively-tilted mid/upper trof pushing the aforementioned boundary south across the forecast area.
The precip probs taper off this evening before the boundary passes and the guidance keeps it quiet for the rest of the overnight. We should retain plenty of moisture at low levels at any rate, which could result in the development of low clouds and some fog in the pre-dawn hours. Low temps will be close to normal. For Saturday, the passage of the trof should allow some mid and upper level drying, alleviating the recent flash flood threat that we have had owing to lower precipitable water. The CAMs are fairly quiet for the afternoon with a lack of mid/upper support and poorer instability, which makes sense as a N/NW flow takes over in the wake of the trof passage. Still, it's hard to keep the showers and storms from developing over the higher terrain with some heating, so a chance will be kept over the mtns. High temps should be about five below normal.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Friday: Dry high pressure will build into the Carolinas Saturday evening into early Sunday leading to drier conditions. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to increase, mainly across the mountain zones, Sunday afternoon and evening as low-level flow turns S'ly. With S'ly flow continuing into Monday, showers and thunderstorms should return again across the mountain zones with activity expected to spill east of the mountains. Any severe threat looks to be low thanks to weak shear and instability generally less thank 2000 J/kg. However, weak shear (~10-15 kts) allowing for slow moving storms combined with convective chances gradually increasing through Monday should allow the localized flooding potential to return. High temperatures will remain a few degrees below climo through the period, with lows remaining a few degrees above climo.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 245 PM EDT Friday: Upper troughing will be in place over the Carolinas through the duration of the long term forecast period allowing for widespread showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. This activity will keep the potential for hydro concerns around through the period. Highs will remain near climo to a few degrees below climo on Tuesday before climbing to a few degrees climo Wednesday into Friday. Heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s will be possible each afternoon Thursday and Friday. Lows will remain a few degrees above climo through the period.

AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Low clouds continue to develop across the region with a few spots having a base below 030, but that should be short-lived as continued heating deepens the boundary layer and raises the cloud base to VFR level. Still difficult to nail down a time when showers/thunderstorms are more likely at any of the terminals later this afternoon and this evening. Will shoot for a four hour window based on the HRRR depiction and amend from there. Confidence is on the low side. For the bulk of the afternoon, restrictions will be held in the TEMPO for the storms. Wind should remain light NE. Once the shower activity slowly wanes, guidance suggests the redevelopment of low clouds and fog across the region, variously down to MVFR and IFR levels. This legacy from the earlier forecast will be kept for now, but expect cigs to be variable as is typical. Extensive cloudiness will slow the development of convection Saturday morning. That and a push of drier air from the north suggest keeping precip chances out of the new forecast.

Outlook: A pattern switch is in store for the weekend, which may tamp down diurnal thunder chances and keep morning fog and low stratus more restricted to the NC mountains.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.