Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atascadero, CA
September 23, 2023 1:01 AM PDT (08:01 UTC)
Sunrise 6:50AM Sunset 6:59PM Moonrise 2:29PM Moonset 11:58PM
PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 901 Pm Pdt Fri Sep 22 2023
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 ft at 6 seconds and S 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds, building to 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. S swell 2 ft in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft.
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 ft at 6 seconds and S 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds, building to 4 to 5 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. S swell 2 ft in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft.
PZZ600 901 Pm Pdt Fri Sep 22 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a weak 1016 mb high was high pressure was 800 nm west of los angeles while a 1008 mb thermal low was over arizona.
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a weak 1016 mb high was high pressure was 800 nm west of los angeles while a 1008 mb thermal low was over arizona.
Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KLOX 230350 AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 850 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023
SYNOPSIS
22/849 PM.
A minimal night through morning low cloud pattern will begin on Saturday and continue into next week. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to rise but will remain below normal through next week.
.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...22/849 PM.
***UPDATE***
The upper level low that ushered in moisture from the former tropical system Kenneth lies just to the west this evening, and is set to track over the area tonight into Saturday morning. This additional moisture aided the development of a substantial mid to high level cloud deck, and keeps slight chances for light drizzle in the area through the night.
Marine layer clouds are in no hurry to return to the coasts tonight with much weaker onshore flow (LAX-DAG onshore gradient trending 2.5 mb weaker than last night). Rising heights have compressed the marine layer to around 3000 feet, but the inversion looks fairly weak south of Point Conception. Therefore, thinking best chances for marine layer stratus is north of Point Conception tonight, where less high clouds can disrupt it's formation.
Another issue to discuss is the smoke that has been advecting in from a complex of large wildfires in northern California. It appears most of the smoke is affecting San Luis Obispo and portions of Santa Barbara County, and some of the coastal waters.
Pretty low confidence in when this smoke will dissipate, but it should be gradually clearing out, as winds near the fires are expected to shift more to the west and south. Generally, winds look fairly light over our area, with just some afternoon onshore winds of 15 to 25 mph over the interior Saturday and Sunday.
Starting Saturday evening, north winds will reoccur of 20-40 mph over the western Santa Ynez range before strengthening Monday night. In general, the forecast looked on track, with some minor adjustments to add smoke over northern areas tonight and adjust the cloud forecast.
***From Previous Discussion***
The primary axis of the midlevel impulse will be shifting east of the area by Saturday afternoon, with drier air working into the region from upstream. Skies are expected to be gradually clearing by the afternoon leading to ample sunshine and a few degrees of warming compared to Friday. However, fringes of the midlevel cold pool accompanying the impulse will still linger over the area and temper the degree of warming. Saturday high temperatures are expected to reach as warm as the upper 70s to lower 80s over the interior valleys, with readings in the upper 60s to the mid 70s closer to the coast, and cooler readings in the mountains.
Then for Sunday into Monday, additional warming will take place as midlevel heights rebound in association with a migratory ridge that will amplify and congeal as it approaches the Rockies.
Temperatures will most prominently warm across the interior valleys and foothills -- reaching the mid and upper 80s in these areas by Monday. Warming closer to the coast will be more modest (upper 60s to the 70s), as onshore gradients foster the influx of a shallower marine layer into these areas accompanied by areas of low clouds and fog.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...22/156 PM.
By late Monday night, the subtropical component of the aforementioned midlevel ridge will become increasingly west-east- oriented to the south of the region. Meanwhile, the tail end of a weakening front will graze the central California coast well to the north of the forecast area before fully dissipating -- within the base of a deep trough impacting the Pacific Northwest. Cloud coverage and precipitation with this system are not expected to affect the area. However, surface ridging behind the weakening front, aided by large-scale subsidence circulating around the attendant deep-layer trough, are expected to support a decided offshore gradient setting up across southern Santa Barbara County Monday night, more prominently increasing Tuesday, peaking on Wednesday, then lessening by late next week. Global model guidance suggests that Santa Barbara-Bakersfield and Santa Barbara-Santa Maria offshore gradients could intensify to -5 mb and -4 mb, respectively, by early Wednesday. This regime will favor the potential for Sundowner wind events in the vicinity of the southern Santa Barbara County mountains including the Santa Ynez range. And with upper support along the southern rim of the deep cyclone centered well north of the area, there appears to be increasing probabilities (35 percent) for wind gusts over 45 mph to materialize by Tuesday and especially Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night and again Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Moreover, the influence of upper support may translate to enhanced drying phasing with these winds to create elevated fire-weather conditions. Please reference the Fire Weather Planning Forecast for additional information.
Otherwise through Wednesday, the offshore-flow pattern beneath 500-mb heights around 590 dam will correspond to an additional few degrees of warming. Widespread high temperatures in the 80s are expected across the interior valleys and foothills, with a few spots of lower 90s becoming possible. These readings are above normal by at least a few degrees. Though once again, a relatively shallow marine layer accompanied by low clouds and fog will mitigate such warming while keeping temperatures slightly below normal closer to the coast. Amply dry deep-layer conditions are expected to prevent the development of any precipitation areawide.
Then for Thursday into Friday, offshore gradients are expected to be subsiding as broadly cyclonic mean flow over the northwest states and adjacent Pacific waters becomes reinforced by another potentially stronger disturbance. Confidence regarding the details of the large-scale pattern evolution at that time range is presently low. However, present indications are that the overall pattern will support weakening of the midlevel ridge across the forecast area by the end of next week with gradually cooling temperatures, along with a deeper marine layer over coastal areas.
Exact magnitudes of these changes are uncertain. However, precipitation chances will remain near zero, given the displacement of any meaningful large-scale ascent well north of the region based on the vast majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance.
AVIATION
22/2358Z.
At 2338Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep, with an inversion top at 3400 ft with a maximum temperature of 19 C.
Low to moderate confidence in coastal and valley TAFs. Deep inversion and onshore gradients support cig development overnight, but high clouds could greatly hinder development.
Timing of cig arrivals could be off by +/- 3 hours. There is a 40% chance of BKN015-BKN025 cigs at KBUR and KVNY in the 08Z-16Z time frame. Additionally all sites with cigs forecasted have a 15% chance of no cigs to very brief cigs tonight.
High confidence in desert TAFs.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in the TAF. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR...There is a 40% chance of BKN015-BKN025 CIGs in the 08Z-16Z time frame.
MARINE
22/831 PM.
High confidence in fairly benign conditions through early Saturday afternoon with NO Small Craft Advisories (SCA), except for a small 5% chance of a shower or thunderstorm tonight anywhere. There is a 40% chance of SCA level winds from Point Conception to around San Nicolas Island Saturday Night, increasing to a 60% chance Sunday Night. The chance for SCA winds in this areas increases to 100% Monday through Wednesday nights, with a 50% chance for Gales. The SCA winds will likely expand north to the Central Coast by Monday, and could spread into the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel as well. Building short period choppy seas will accompany these winds over all waters, with white-capping likely Monday through Wednesday. Moderately confident that a large and long period northwest to west swell will quickly fill in in addition to the choppy seas by Tuesday and persist through Friday. Combined heights of 8 to 11 feet will be common from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, and 3 to 6 feet common elsewhere.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 850 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023
SYNOPSIS
22/849 PM.
A minimal night through morning low cloud pattern will begin on Saturday and continue into next week. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to rise but will remain below normal through next week.
.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...22/849 PM.
***UPDATE***
The upper level low that ushered in moisture from the former tropical system Kenneth lies just to the west this evening, and is set to track over the area tonight into Saturday morning. This additional moisture aided the development of a substantial mid to high level cloud deck, and keeps slight chances for light drizzle in the area through the night.
Marine layer clouds are in no hurry to return to the coasts tonight with much weaker onshore flow (LAX-DAG onshore gradient trending 2.5 mb weaker than last night). Rising heights have compressed the marine layer to around 3000 feet, but the inversion looks fairly weak south of Point Conception. Therefore, thinking best chances for marine layer stratus is north of Point Conception tonight, where less high clouds can disrupt it's formation.
Another issue to discuss is the smoke that has been advecting in from a complex of large wildfires in northern California. It appears most of the smoke is affecting San Luis Obispo and portions of Santa Barbara County, and some of the coastal waters.
Pretty low confidence in when this smoke will dissipate, but it should be gradually clearing out, as winds near the fires are expected to shift more to the west and south. Generally, winds look fairly light over our area, with just some afternoon onshore winds of 15 to 25 mph over the interior Saturday and Sunday.
Starting Saturday evening, north winds will reoccur of 20-40 mph over the western Santa Ynez range before strengthening Monday night. In general, the forecast looked on track, with some minor adjustments to add smoke over northern areas tonight and adjust the cloud forecast.
***From Previous Discussion***
The primary axis of the midlevel impulse will be shifting east of the area by Saturday afternoon, with drier air working into the region from upstream. Skies are expected to be gradually clearing by the afternoon leading to ample sunshine and a few degrees of warming compared to Friday. However, fringes of the midlevel cold pool accompanying the impulse will still linger over the area and temper the degree of warming. Saturday high temperatures are expected to reach as warm as the upper 70s to lower 80s over the interior valleys, with readings in the upper 60s to the mid 70s closer to the coast, and cooler readings in the mountains.
Then for Sunday into Monday, additional warming will take place as midlevel heights rebound in association with a migratory ridge that will amplify and congeal as it approaches the Rockies.
Temperatures will most prominently warm across the interior valleys and foothills -- reaching the mid and upper 80s in these areas by Monday. Warming closer to the coast will be more modest (upper 60s to the 70s), as onshore gradients foster the influx of a shallower marine layer into these areas accompanied by areas of low clouds and fog.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...22/156 PM.
By late Monday night, the subtropical component of the aforementioned midlevel ridge will become increasingly west-east- oriented to the south of the region. Meanwhile, the tail end of a weakening front will graze the central California coast well to the north of the forecast area before fully dissipating -- within the base of a deep trough impacting the Pacific Northwest. Cloud coverage and precipitation with this system are not expected to affect the area. However, surface ridging behind the weakening front, aided by large-scale subsidence circulating around the attendant deep-layer trough, are expected to support a decided offshore gradient setting up across southern Santa Barbara County Monday night, more prominently increasing Tuesday, peaking on Wednesday, then lessening by late next week. Global model guidance suggests that Santa Barbara-Bakersfield and Santa Barbara-Santa Maria offshore gradients could intensify to -5 mb and -4 mb, respectively, by early Wednesday. This regime will favor the potential for Sundowner wind events in the vicinity of the southern Santa Barbara County mountains including the Santa Ynez range. And with upper support along the southern rim of the deep cyclone centered well north of the area, there appears to be increasing probabilities (35 percent) for wind gusts over 45 mph to materialize by Tuesday and especially Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night and again Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Moreover, the influence of upper support may translate to enhanced drying phasing with these winds to create elevated fire-weather conditions. Please reference the Fire Weather Planning Forecast for additional information.
Otherwise through Wednesday, the offshore-flow pattern beneath 500-mb heights around 590 dam will correspond to an additional few degrees of warming. Widespread high temperatures in the 80s are expected across the interior valleys and foothills, with a few spots of lower 90s becoming possible. These readings are above normal by at least a few degrees. Though once again, a relatively shallow marine layer accompanied by low clouds and fog will mitigate such warming while keeping temperatures slightly below normal closer to the coast. Amply dry deep-layer conditions are expected to prevent the development of any precipitation areawide.
Then for Thursday into Friday, offshore gradients are expected to be subsiding as broadly cyclonic mean flow over the northwest states and adjacent Pacific waters becomes reinforced by another potentially stronger disturbance. Confidence regarding the details of the large-scale pattern evolution at that time range is presently low. However, present indications are that the overall pattern will support weakening of the midlevel ridge across the forecast area by the end of next week with gradually cooling temperatures, along with a deeper marine layer over coastal areas.
Exact magnitudes of these changes are uncertain. However, precipitation chances will remain near zero, given the displacement of any meaningful large-scale ascent well north of the region based on the vast majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance.
AVIATION
22/2358Z.
At 2338Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep, with an inversion top at 3400 ft with a maximum temperature of 19 C.
Low to moderate confidence in coastal and valley TAFs. Deep inversion and onshore gradients support cig development overnight, but high clouds could greatly hinder development.
Timing of cig arrivals could be off by +/- 3 hours. There is a 40% chance of BKN015-BKN025 cigs at KBUR and KVNY in the 08Z-16Z time frame. Additionally all sites with cigs forecasted have a 15% chance of no cigs to very brief cigs tonight.
High confidence in desert TAFs.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in the TAF. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR...There is a 40% chance of BKN015-BKN025 CIGs in the 08Z-16Z time frame.
MARINE
22/831 PM.
High confidence in fairly benign conditions through early Saturday afternoon with NO Small Craft Advisories (SCA), except for a small 5% chance of a shower or thunderstorm tonight anywhere. There is a 40% chance of SCA level winds from Point Conception to around San Nicolas Island Saturday Night, increasing to a 60% chance Sunday Night. The chance for SCA winds in this areas increases to 100% Monday through Wednesday nights, with a 50% chance for Gales. The SCA winds will likely expand north to the Central Coast by Monday, and could spread into the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel as well. Building short period choppy seas will accompany these winds over all waters, with white-capping likely Monday through Wednesday. Moderately confident that a large and long period northwest to west swell will quickly fill in in addition to the choppy seas by Tuesday and persist through Friday. Combined heights of 8 to 11 feet will be common from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, and 3 to 6 feet common elsewhere.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MBXC1 | 11 mi | 41 min | 66°F | |||||
| 46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) | 20 mi | 35 min | 67°F | 3 ft | ||||
| CPXC1 | 20 mi | 57 min | N 2.9 | 60°F | 30.03 | 56°F | ||
| PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA | 20 mi | 43 min | WNW 1.9G | 59°F | 62°F | 30.03 | ||
| 46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA | 40 mi | 31 min | NW 7.8G | 62°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPRB PASO ROBLES MUNI,CA | 15 sm | 68 min | W 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 50°F | 82% | 30.01 | |
| KSBP SAN LUIS COUNTY RGNL,CA | 15 sm | 65 min | NW 05 | 8 sm | Clear | 61°F | 54°F | 77% | 30.01 | |
Wind History from SBP
(wind in knots)Morro Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:18 AM PDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM PDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:30 AM PDT 3.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:48 AM PDT 3.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM PDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:20 PM PDT 4.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:18 AM PDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM PDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:30 AM PDT 3.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:48 AM PDT 3.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM PDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:20 PM PDT 4.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Morro Beach, Estero Bay, California, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 2 |
| 5 am |
| 2.5 |
| 6 am |
| 3 |
| 7 am |
| 3.3 |
| 8 am |
| 3.4 |
| 9 am |
| 3.4 |
| 10 am |
| 3.3 |
| 11 am |
| 3.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 3 |
| 10 pm |
| 2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Morro Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:18 AM PDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM PDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:31 AM PDT 3.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:47 AM PDT 3.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM PDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:20 PM PDT 4.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:18 AM PDT 0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM PDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:31 AM PDT 3.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:47 AM PDT 3.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM PDT Moonrise
Sat -- 05:20 PM PDT 4.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Morro Beach, Estero Bay, California (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 2 |
| 5 am |
| 2.5 |
| 6 am |
| 3 |
| 7 am |
| 3.3 |
| 8 am |
| 3.4 |
| 9 am |
| 3.4 |
| 10 am |
| 3.3 |
| 11 am |
| 3.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 3 |
| 10 pm |
| 2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Vandenberg AFB, CA,
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