Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Salvo, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Patchy dense fog remains possible this morning especially north of Highway 264.

2) Warming trend this weekend, followed by potentially record breaking above normal conditions developing next week.

3) Worsening drought and fire weather conditions anticipated over the next 7 days with no rainfall forecast.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Decent radiational cooling conditions underway as high pressure ridge extends over the Carolinas and into the southeastern CONUS, although light northeasterly winds stubbornly remain for many spots. This may make all the difference in whether we see denser fog actually take hold, which guidance continues to insist on forming north of Highway 264 pre-dawn. Less dense, patchier fog remains possible farther south. Any fog that does form will be quick to burn off tomorrow morning after sunrise.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Building low level thicknesses today through the weekend will allow warming temps to near and slightly above normal. By Sunday afternoon, stout surface high rotates off the Mid- Atlantic coast as anomalously strong ridging anchors itself aloft, veering local winds more easterly Sunday and then becoming SE early next week allowing further warming. Highs will climb into the 90s by next week, with potentially multiple days of records being threatened starting Tuesday and Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Forecast continues to be dry for the foreseeable future. Relaxing winds through the remainder of the work-week should preclude any fire weather headlines, but the precip-free and warming forecast will lead to the rapid drying of fuels through the long term. This will lead to the potential for fire weather concerns next week when stronger winds are forecast.

Worsening drought conditions are possible by early next week as soils continue to dry after a soaking rain last weekend. The forecast area remains in a Severe Drought (D2), with some pockets of Extreme Drought (D3) emerging over the northern NC coastal plain. Precipitation deficits over the last 60 days range from 3-6 inches, which will only increase in the upcoming rain-free week. Growing vegetation and leaf out will only increase the strain on ground water in the coming weeks.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR flight cats last currently across ENC but fog is expected to develop in SE VA and work SWward toward inland TAF sites in a few hours. Best fog chances along and north of US 264 in closer proximity to the high pressure ridge axis. KPGV will likely see at least some MVFR fog, with a higher potential for IFR vsbys and cigs. Farther south and west, including ISO and EWN, could see MVFR conditions briefly before sunrise. Closer to the coast, a light breeze should limit any fog development. Fog will burn off quickly after sunrise, with VFR, light winds, and SKC expected for the remainder of the day.

Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with more summertime pattern taking shape in warming Serly flow regime with daily fairweather diurnal CU fields expected.

MARINE
Small craft conditions continue across all the coastal waters as seas remain at 6-8 feet across all offshore waters. NE winds are steadily easing, now down to 10-15 kt with only infrequent gusts to 25 kt. This will continue to trend downward through today, with winds eventually becoming light and variable tonight and then turning SW to W on Saturday ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. A brief jump of winds near 25 kt is possible immediately behind this front late Saturday, but likely less than 6 hours.

Seas will still take some time to subside, falling below 6 feet first across Onslow Bay on Sat AM and then remaining offshore waters on Sunday.

Outlook: Largely benign boating conditions expected next week, although with a spring heatwave on the horizon strengthening thermal gradient winds could near 25 kt at times during the overnight hours and nudge seas near 6 feet.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158.