Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 12:01 PM   Moonset 2:07 AM

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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 346 Pm Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves light chop. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Thu - W winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Thu night - N winds around 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves light chop. Fri - NE winds around 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves light chop. Fri night - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. Sat - NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne. Waves flat, increasing to light chop. A chance of showers. Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 346 Pm Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A backdoor cold front will stall over area waters today before lifting back north tonight. High pressure ridging briefly builds back into the southeast around midweek before the next cold front impacts the area next weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 161942 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 342 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front will stall over eastern North Carolina today before lifting back north tonight. High pressure ridging briefly builds back into the Southeast around midweek before the next cold front impacts the area next weekend.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Temps and dew points have struggled to climb due to the strong northeasterly surge that's been pushing in behind the front. A large temp/dew point gradient is laid out across the CWA right now with southern communities around 80/60 and NOBX communities around 60/45.

Isolated convection for far inland counties remains on the table for later this afternoon into the early evening. Mesoanalysis shows surface CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg along the Duplin/Lenoir/Greene County area at the time of convective initiation between 23-00Z. Mid- level lapse rates around 7 C/km and deep layer shear around 30-40 kt will also be present. The isolated showers and thunderstorms that the CAMs are showing over this area may be able to produce some strong gusts or small hail but they are expected to collapse quickly as they move east into a less favorable environment. Working against convective development, however, is a mid-level ridge overhead.
This does not the eliminate the chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but it does lessen it, so PoPs have been capped at 15-20%.

Winds will veer towards the SE overnight and we'll hang on to cloud cover, which well help keep low temps near 60 across the board.
There's a chance for fog to develop over southwestern portions of the CWA after midnight

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Another warm day is on tap tomorrow with high pressure overhead sending highs into the mid 80s across the coastal plain and low 70s for coastal communities. A trough will move across the Great Lakes region and push a mid-level shortwave across NC. This could provide enough lift to support some scattered light showers over the area but the column is fairly dry in the lower levels, so PoPs have been capped at 10-15%.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 4 AM Tuesday... A fairly active pattern is on tap this week with multiple frontal passages impacting the area into this weekend.

Wednesday through Friday night...Upper ridging will crest over the area early Wednesday then will flatten as a weakening trough lifts NE'wards from the Central CONUS into the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley. Assoc. mid level shortwave will push across the area Wednesday night which may provide enough support to bring isolated showers across the region. Upper ridging will build back over the area Thursday with the axis cresting over the area early Friday with dry conditions prevailing but another dampening mid level shortwave and attendant cold front is progged to push across the area late Friday and Friday night, which may bring isolated showers across the region.
Temps will remain above avg across the Coastal Plain with highs generally in the low to mid 80s each day with a few upper 80s possible on Thursday. Highs along the coast will be in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday with NNE onshore flow keeping temps in the 60s across the OBX on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A weakening cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall just off the coast Saturday night. Additional shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area with sfc low pressure developing along the offshore front, which is progged to push off the OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on Monday as high pressure builds in from the west. Saturday looks to be another warm day with temps well above normal inland with highs in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s along the coast. A cooler airmass builds in behind the front which, along with clouds and showers, will keep temps several degrees below normal with highs in the 60s.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 1 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions with mostly sunny skies and easterly winds around 10 kt are expected for the next few hours.
After midnight, guidance is hinting at fog developing along southern counties and expanding north with visibilities expected to drop to MVFR early tomorrow morning. Conditions should quickly improve by 13Z.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 430 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR expected through the long term although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub- VFR in isolated showers late Wednesday night, late Friday/Friday night and again late Saturday as a series of mid level shortwaves traverse the area.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions expected through the period.
NE winds at 10-15 kt will veer to the southwest by tomorrow morning and seas will remain at 3-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 445 AM Tuesday...An active pattern will prevail in the long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold fronts move into the waters. Strongest winds through the period are expected Wednesday through Thursday with SW winds around 10-20 kt. The front will push through Thursday night and stall offshore Friday with pressure gradients weakening. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft, occasionally getting to 5 ft across the outer waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Tue -- 03:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:55 AM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:39 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:20 PM EDT     1.72 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:43 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
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Tue -- 03:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:54 AM EDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:01 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:19 PM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,