Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Waves, NC

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 6:45 PM Saturday...Most of the CWA has decoupled by this point, which is allowing temps to crater faster than expected.
Obs are already nearing the mid to low 30s with some sheltered spots in the 20s. Overnight lows have been decreased by a degree or two to follow this trend.

Previous Discussion
As of 2 PM Sat
Initially this evening expect clear skies and very light winds as high pressure passes by just to the south. This will allow for very efficient radiational cooling with an extremely dry airmass still in place. Temps will drop quickly into the low 30s this evening with these conditions in place. Then later tonight, high pressure will shift offshore as a frontal system moves into the Great Lakes. This will increase the pressure gradient across the area and cause winds to pick up overnight into early tomorrow morning. As a result cooling will be effectively culled and temps will hold steady inland in the upper 20s to low 30s, and rise along the coast into the 40s and 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
As of 2 PM Sat...A welcome return to near normal conditions is anticipated tomorrow as high pressure builds off the SE coast, and upper level ridging increases. A continued tight pressure gradient will keep breezy conditions in place through most of the day, with gusts up to 30 mph along the coast and Outer Banks. Low level thicknesses will support highs in the low to mid 60s, with conditions slightly cooler along the OBX due to the now chilly sound waters.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 3 PM Saturday...

Key Messages:

- An unsettled pattern will develop Monday through Wednesday with beneficial rainfall possible Wednesday.
- Below normal temps return for the latter half of the work week.

Sfc high pressure will migrate offshore Sunday with southerly return flow bringing a warming trend that will continue through mid week. Zonal flow aloft will be present Sunday followed by a series of shortwave moving through Monday and Tuesday bring a chance for a few showers. Upper level flow becomes increasingly amplified across the CONUS through mid week as several northern stream shortwaves dig into the Plain states with an amplified upper trough and attendant cold front pushing across the region on Wednesday. Strong jet dynamics and frontal forcing combined with deep SW flow aloft advecting Gulf moisture feed across the region will likely bring beneficial rainfall amounts across much of the region Wednesday. Rainfall amounts Monday through Tuesday will likely be a quarter of an inch or less but probs for greater than 1 inch increases to 60-80 percent Wednesday. We will be in a high shear/low instability environment on Wednesday with 50+ kt 0-6km shear and less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE but current thinking is the threat for strong/severe storms will be quite limited. However, cannot rule out heavier precip bringing down strong winds from aloft.
Highs expected around 60s to mid 60s Sunday and Monday with mid 60s to around 70 Tuesday and Wednesday. Arctic high pressure builds back into the area late in the week with mainly sunny/clear skies and temps dropping well below normal once again with high in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s to 30s.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 6:45 PM Sat...High confidence in VFR conditions continuing through tomorrow. High pressure will start to slide offshore tonight and tighten the gradient, which will increase southwesterly winds to around 10 kt by tomorrow afternoon. SKC expected through the period.

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday night. An unsettled pattern develops Monday through the middle of next week which will likely bring periods of sub-VFR conditions across rtes. The greatest chance for sub-VFR will be Wednesday ahead of a cold front that could bring gusty southerly winds and periods of moderate to heavy precip.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 2 PM Sat...Good boating conditions will continue through early tonight at which point winds will increase out of the SW as the pressure gradient increases between high pressure off the SE coast and a low pressure system over New England. Small craft conditions are likely to develop overnight across the warmer ocean waters where modest mixing occurs, however given the widespread water temps in the 40s across the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, winds should remain below Small Craft criteria due to minimal mixing.

Winds for the rest of today will be NW to W at 5-10 kts. Winds will increase this evening to SW 10-15 kts, and then around midnight will strengthen to SW 15-25 kts. Winds will continue at this strength for most of tomorrow, subsiding late tomorrow afternoon. Seas will be 2-3 ft through midnight, and then increase to 3-5 ft. A few hour period of 6 ft seas is likely across the coastal waters between the Capes tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...High pressure will be centered offshore through most of the long term bringing S to SW winds 10-15 kt Sunday night through Tuesday, though may see up to 20 kt across portions of the waters Monday afternoon and evening as gradients tighten with a warm front lifting across the region. Seas will be around 2-4 ft through Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches Tuesday night and crosses the region late Wednesday and will see southerly winds increasing to strong SCA winds across most waters and Gales across parts of the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet where better mixing will occur near warmer Gulf Stream waters. Wave guidance showing seas building to 6-12 ft peaking ahead of the front on Wednesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152- 154.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for AMZ156.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ158.