Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Belhaven, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 3 PM Mon...Heavy rain threat through this evening as several bands of convection have developed and are sinking southward through ENC. Flood watch continues through late tonight, whereafter heavy rain and flood threat will diminish with loss of significant forcing and heating after midnight.
High pops in the likely range will continue through this evening, shifting south to the Crystal Coast after sunset and then offshore. Some lingering sct showers may persist through the overnight, but heavy rain threat will have subsided. PW's over 2" and training storms with slow moving boundary will be the focus for the heavy rain/flood threat.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
As of 3 PM Mon...16/12Z model suite has come in markedly drier for Tue afternoon, and HRRR probs in the ~30% range reflecting this. Have therefore gone below NBM adertised likelies, as they are playing catchup to newer model guidance. Have therefore lowered pops to chc sct mention for thunder Tue afternoon. Could see a bit more covg on typical sound/sea breezes like Downeast Carteret newrd through Stumpy Pt, Oregon Inlet region where 50% pop is advertised. Heating up Tue as ridging begins to take hold, with highs in the low 90s and heat indices reaching or exceeding 100 for several hours.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330AM Sun...

Key Messages:

- Potential for dangerous heat indices midweek into the end of next week.

Wednesday through next weekend...Previously mentioned upper trough will be the main feature of note into the end of the week with this neutrally tilted trough pushing E'wards into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Fri. Currently GFS is the deepest and slowest with this trough with the Canadian and ECWMF guidance slightly quicker and weaker with the trough. Either way, at the surface we return to a more summer like pattern with thunderstorms primarily focused along the Seabreeze on Wed/Thurs with an incoming surface cold front from the west becoming the focus for potential shower/tstm activity on Fri. High pressure ridging then builds into the area over the weekend once again drying the area out. Of bigger note will be the hot and muggy conditions expected around midweek as a combination of temps in the 90s Wed/Thurs and dewpoints in the 70s will result in hazardous heat indices with "feels like" temps closer to the 100-110 F range each day. Will have to monitor trends, but the years first heat advisories may be needed next week if the current forecast holds. Once cold front pushes through on Friday temps will decrease slightly and the excessive heat threat will lower this weekend.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 150 PM Mon...

Key Messages

- Increased TSRA risk to continue into late tonight

A boundary draped across ENC will interact with an unstable and very moist airmass today, leading to another round of scattered to numerous TSRA. This risk is expected to linger into late tonight. Where TSRA occur, there will be an accompanying risk of 30-50kt winds and significant reductions to VIS (LIFR/IFR).
Prior to the development of TSRA, a period of MVFR CIGs will be possible this morning, especially for KISO, KPGV, and KEWN. CIGs likely VFR outside of convection, with potential for more widespread sub-VFR late tonight and early Tue morning with patchy fog and low stratus. Best chances for IFR at PGV and ISO early Tue morning.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330AM Sun...Unsettled weather will continue to persist across the area into midweek as a stalled front will bring a threat for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to Eastern North Carolina. A more summer like pattern returns with diurnal thunderstorm activity developing along the Seabreeze on Tue/Wed. Either way this will bring a daily threat for sub-VFR conditions each day. In addition to this, early morning fog development will remain possible for areas that see rain.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Mon/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Sct/numerous thunderstorms through this evening, then quieter weather for Tue. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of 35-45kt winds and brief waterspouts. Swrly flow for general winds in the 5-15 kt range through tonight. Then, thermal gradient inc local winds on the Pamlico Sound to 15-20 Tue afternoon into evening, with some gusts to 25 kt. Because of the localized nature of these winds, will not issue a SCA attm for tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Monday though Thursday/...
As of 330AM Sun...A stalled frontal boundary will bisect our waters from west to east, generally from around Lenoir county east across the Pamlico Sound, and just north of Hatteras Island into our coastal waters. This stalled front will bring a threat for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms into Tue across all our waters with locally enhanced winds and seas noted within the strongest activity. Front will gradually lift N'wards through Tue allowing for the entire area to see SW'rly winds at 10-15 kts with gusts up near 20 kts. By Wed as high pressure settles into the region and thermal troughing sets up the gradient will pinch slightly allowing SW'rly winds Tue night into Wed to increase to 15-20 kts with occasional gusts up near 25 kts at times into Thurs. Seas will generally remain around 2-5 ft through the period keeping us SCA free through at least midweek.

HYDROLOGY
As of 3 PM Mon...There will be a continued risk of thunderstorms with intense rainfall rates through this evening, which is expected to keep the flood/flash flood risk elevated.
The Flood Watch cont for ENC through late this evening. Ensemble guidance doesn't show as substantial of a rainfall footprint today as what was forecast yesterday. However, given wet antecedant conditions, it shouldn't take much rain to cause some flooding issues. This will especially be the case for the areas that saw substantial rainfall last night (Greene, Pitt, Martin Counties). It should be noted that a small, but more significant, flood risk may develop in the greater Greenville area if additional heavy rain develops in that area today.
Rivers and streams are running high in that area, and soils are very saturated after the 3-7" of rain that fell.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081- 090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196.
MARINE...None.