Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Belhaven, NC
April 24, 2024 8:34 PM EDT (00:34 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:22 AM Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 7:47 PM Moonset 5:31 AM |
AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 742 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Tonight - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late this evening, then becoming W after midnight. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat late this evening and overnight. Scattered showers early this evening, then isolated showers late this evening.
Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon.
Thu night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Mon - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Mon night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
AMZ100 742 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A cold front with limited moisture will approach the area today and cross the region tonight. High pressure builds back into the area from the north on Thursday and eventually slides offshore this weekend.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 250008 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 808 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front with limited moisture will approach the area today and cross the region tonight. High pressure builds back into the area from the north on Thursday and eventually slides offshore this weekend.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 745 PM Wednesday...
Early this evening, a cold front stretches from central VA southwest through the TN Valley. East of the front, a pre- frontal trough was noted from SE SC northeast through ENC. A band of mostly light rain has been accompanying the trough for the past several hours, although there was a brief uptick in rainfall rates as the trough interacted with the seabreeze. Over the past hour, a decreasing trend was noted with the coverage of the rain along that trough. However, water vapor imagery reveals what appears to be a subtle shortwave moving SE through the Carolinas at this time, and a gradual increase in shower coverage has recently been noted back to the west across the Coastal Plain.
Short-term guidance has been handling the rain with the trough, and the shortwave, well, and based on this, it looks like the greatest coverage of showers will occur from now through about midnight tonight. In light of this, I felt confident enough to bump pops up through the evening, especially along and east of HWY 17. Rainfall amounts still look light, though. I also added a mention of thunderstorms, but primarily focused this risk offshore where instability is forecast to be maximized. Inland, a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, but the chance appears to be <10%.
Lastly, the light rain this evening will be followed up by a period of light winds, cooler temps, and low T/Td spreads. This suggests a several hour window of fog potential overnight, and short-term guidance also shows a pretty good signal. Because of this, I added a mention of patchy fog prior to the winds picking up with the cold front (which will come through on Thursday).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A series of subtle mid-level shortwaves moving through cyclonic flow aloft will push across the area through the short term. The first is currently moving across the region bringing a band of light showers, which is being enhanced by the region being located in the favorable right entrance region of the upper jet. The showers are currently located across for northern sections and will slide swd across the area this afternoon and evening. Guidance shows the coverage of showers diminishing as it pushes southward this afternoon as it moves away from better upper level support but could see some enhancement this evening as the assoc prefrontal trough and sea breeze converges near the Crystal coast. There is significant dry air below 600-700 mb so rainfall amounts will remain quite low, most likely less than a tenth of an inch.
MUCAPE remains less than 100 J/Kg across the region with little shear in place so continue to keep thunder out of the forecast.
Another mid- level shortwave and attendant cold front will push across the region late tonight with winds becoming nly but the airmass will be too dry to produce any additional showers. Skies will be variably cloudy overnight but sufficient breaks expected to allow min temps in the low to mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
As of 345 PM Wednesday...Sfc high pressure ridges in from the north Thursday with another subtle shortwave pushing through which will bring a north to northeast wind surge in the afternoon with gusts around 25-30 mph across the OBX and 15-20 mph inland. No additional precip is expected but onshore flow is will likely bring low STCU across eastern sections of the FA.
A wide range of temps across the are with clouds and onshore flow keeping temps in the low to mid 60s across the OBX to mid 70s across southern sections.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term with high pressure dominating.
High pressure lingers to our north Thursday night, and will remain near the eastern seaboard through the end of the work week, aided by omega blocking aloft. Remainder of the long term remains uneventful due to the high. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way. If the low moves north, we will have less chances of precip in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. No mentionable PoPs with this update for Saturday as high remaining stubborn looks to be the most likely outcome. High will shift to our south in the weekend, and easterly flow will gradually veer to become southwesterly at the start of next week. Another frontal system will be moving through mid week next week. How the high behaves will play a role on how far south the higher moisture along the cold front extends. As of right now, looks to be mostly dry with higher precip chances expected in AKQ's CWA and further north. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the long term (mid-upper 80s inland), aided by SW flow with the high to our east.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Friday/...
As of 745 PM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Increasing confidence in sub-VFR conditions occurring tonight due to BR/MIFG (40-60% chance)
2) SHRA to impact the area through late this evening
FORECAST DETAILS
An upper level wave will move through Eastern NC this evening, producing widespread mid-level CIGs and SCT SHRA. A few TSRA cannot be ruled out, but the risk appears low (<10% chance), and I opted to leave TS out of the TAFs for now. Where SHRA occur, plan for the potential of MVFR VIS. In the wake of the SHRA, conditions appear conducive for patchy, shallow fog or mist (MIFG/BR). For now, I've added a 6SM BR mention to the TAFs, but the potential is there for a period of sub-VFR VIS to develop.
At this time, the risk of a deep, and impactful fog, appears LOW (10-30% chance). A cold front will move through with a northeasterly wind shift on Thursday. Along the front, a few SHRA or TSRA may develop, but confidence is too low for a mention in the TAFs. There is also the potential for a period of sub-VFR CIGs along and behind the front.
LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday with high pressure dominating the long term.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 4 PM Wednesday...A prefrontal trough is currently pushing across the waters and seeing N to NW winds around 10 kt or less across the northern waters and SW 15-20 kt from around Oregon Inlet southward. The trough will weaken as it pushes swd this evening allowing winds to become less than 15 kt across the waters overnight. A cold front will then push across the waters late tonight allowing winds to become Nly around 10-15 kt Thursday morning with a stronger surge around 15-25 kt developing in the afternoon. Seas around 4-7 ft this afternoon will briefly subside to 2-5 ft late tonight but will rebuild to 3-6 ft Thursday afternoon as the stronger surge develops. Have adjusted the timing of the SCA across the northern waters and sounds/Alligator River since present conditions have dropped below criteria and are not expected to reach it again until tomorrow afternoon. Will maintain through the overnight for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as SCA conditions will likely continue through this evening and short window before rebuilding Thursday afternoon.
LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Cold front will be offshore of the Crystal Coast and SOBX for the start of the long term. Behind the cold front, we will see a surge of northerly winds Thursday afternoon/evening. Pamlico Sound has a Small Craft Advisory out until 6Z Friday due to this surge. Duration of the higher winds will be shorter for northern sounds.Alligator River, preventing the issuance of a SCA at this time. Neuse and Pamlico Rivers should remain below SCA criteria. We will also see waves picking up from the deepening low in the North Atlantic. This will allow Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue for coastal waters until 6Z Friday. The exception is waters off of Hatteras Island and Ocracoke, where high waves at or above 6 ft will linger a bit longer, until 0Z Saturday.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 808 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front with limited moisture will approach the area today and cross the region tonight. High pressure builds back into the area from the north on Thursday and eventually slides offshore this weekend.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 745 PM Wednesday...
Early this evening, a cold front stretches from central VA southwest through the TN Valley. East of the front, a pre- frontal trough was noted from SE SC northeast through ENC. A band of mostly light rain has been accompanying the trough for the past several hours, although there was a brief uptick in rainfall rates as the trough interacted with the seabreeze. Over the past hour, a decreasing trend was noted with the coverage of the rain along that trough. However, water vapor imagery reveals what appears to be a subtle shortwave moving SE through the Carolinas at this time, and a gradual increase in shower coverage has recently been noted back to the west across the Coastal Plain.
Short-term guidance has been handling the rain with the trough, and the shortwave, well, and based on this, it looks like the greatest coverage of showers will occur from now through about midnight tonight. In light of this, I felt confident enough to bump pops up through the evening, especially along and east of HWY 17. Rainfall amounts still look light, though. I also added a mention of thunderstorms, but primarily focused this risk offshore where instability is forecast to be maximized. Inland, a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, but the chance appears to be <10%.
Lastly, the light rain this evening will be followed up by a period of light winds, cooler temps, and low T/Td spreads. This suggests a several hour window of fog potential overnight, and short-term guidance also shows a pretty good signal. Because of this, I added a mention of patchy fog prior to the winds picking up with the cold front (which will come through on Thursday).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A series of subtle mid-level shortwaves moving through cyclonic flow aloft will push across the area through the short term. The first is currently moving across the region bringing a band of light showers, which is being enhanced by the region being located in the favorable right entrance region of the upper jet. The showers are currently located across for northern sections and will slide swd across the area this afternoon and evening. Guidance shows the coverage of showers diminishing as it pushes southward this afternoon as it moves away from better upper level support but could see some enhancement this evening as the assoc prefrontal trough and sea breeze converges near the Crystal coast. There is significant dry air below 600-700 mb so rainfall amounts will remain quite low, most likely less than a tenth of an inch.
MUCAPE remains less than 100 J/Kg across the region with little shear in place so continue to keep thunder out of the forecast.
Another mid- level shortwave and attendant cold front will push across the region late tonight with winds becoming nly but the airmass will be too dry to produce any additional showers. Skies will be variably cloudy overnight but sufficient breaks expected to allow min temps in the low to mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
As of 345 PM Wednesday...Sfc high pressure ridges in from the north Thursday with another subtle shortwave pushing through which will bring a north to northeast wind surge in the afternoon with gusts around 25-30 mph across the OBX and 15-20 mph inland. No additional precip is expected but onshore flow is will likely bring low STCU across eastern sections of the FA.
A wide range of temps across the are with clouds and onshore flow keeping temps in the low to mid 60s across the OBX to mid 70s across southern sections.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term with high pressure dominating.
High pressure lingers to our north Thursday night, and will remain near the eastern seaboard through the end of the work week, aided by omega blocking aloft. Remainder of the long term remains uneventful due to the high. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way. If the low moves north, we will have less chances of precip in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. No mentionable PoPs with this update for Saturday as high remaining stubborn looks to be the most likely outcome. High will shift to our south in the weekend, and easterly flow will gradually veer to become southwesterly at the start of next week. Another frontal system will be moving through mid week next week. How the high behaves will play a role on how far south the higher moisture along the cold front extends. As of right now, looks to be mostly dry with higher precip chances expected in AKQ's CWA and further north. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the long term (mid-upper 80s inland), aided by SW flow with the high to our east.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Friday/...
As of 745 PM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Increasing confidence in sub-VFR conditions occurring tonight due to BR/MIFG (40-60% chance)
2) SHRA to impact the area through late this evening
FORECAST DETAILS
An upper level wave will move through Eastern NC this evening, producing widespread mid-level CIGs and SCT SHRA. A few TSRA cannot be ruled out, but the risk appears low (<10% chance), and I opted to leave TS out of the TAFs for now. Where SHRA occur, plan for the potential of MVFR VIS. In the wake of the SHRA, conditions appear conducive for patchy, shallow fog or mist (MIFG/BR). For now, I've added a 6SM BR mention to the TAFs, but the potential is there for a period of sub-VFR VIS to develop.
At this time, the risk of a deep, and impactful fog, appears LOW (10-30% chance). A cold front will move through with a northeasterly wind shift on Thursday. Along the front, a few SHRA or TSRA may develop, but confidence is too low for a mention in the TAFs. There is also the potential for a period of sub-VFR CIGs along and behind the front.
LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday with high pressure dominating the long term.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 4 PM Wednesday...A prefrontal trough is currently pushing across the waters and seeing N to NW winds around 10 kt or less across the northern waters and SW 15-20 kt from around Oregon Inlet southward. The trough will weaken as it pushes swd this evening allowing winds to become less than 15 kt across the waters overnight. A cold front will then push across the waters late tonight allowing winds to become Nly around 10-15 kt Thursday morning with a stronger surge around 15-25 kt developing in the afternoon. Seas around 4-7 ft this afternoon will briefly subside to 2-5 ft late tonight but will rebuild to 3-6 ft Thursday afternoon as the stronger surge develops. Have adjusted the timing of the SCA across the northern waters and sounds/Alligator River since present conditions have dropped below criteria and are not expected to reach it again until tomorrow afternoon. Will maintain through the overnight for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as SCA conditions will likely continue through this evening and short window before rebuilding Thursday afternoon.
LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Cold front will be offshore of the Crystal Coast and SOBX for the start of the long term. Behind the cold front, we will see a surge of northerly winds Thursday afternoon/evening. Pamlico Sound has a Small Craft Advisory out until 6Z Friday due to this surge. Duration of the higher winds will be shorter for northern sounds.Alligator River, preventing the issuance of a SCA at this time. Neuse and Pamlico Rivers should remain below SCA criteria. We will also see waves picking up from the deepening low in the North Atlantic. This will allow Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue for coastal waters until 6Z Friday. The exception is waters off of Hatteras Island and Ocracoke, where high waves at or above 6 ft will linger a bit longer, until 0Z Saturday.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC | 52 mi | 95 min | SW 8.9G | 64°F | 61°F | 30.04 | ||
| BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 57 mi | 95 min | WSW 12G | 66°F | 65°F | 30.01 | ||
| ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC | 58 mi | 95 min | N 8G | 62°F | 63°F | 30.07 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KOCW WASHINGTONWARREN,NC | 24 sm | 24 min | SE 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 61°F | 55°F | 82% | 30.05 |
Tide / Current for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina (2)
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:21 AM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:29 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 08:53 AM EDT 1.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:12 PM EDT 0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 09:05 PM EDT 1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:21 AM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:29 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 08:53 AM EDT 1.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:12 PM EDT 0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 09:05 PM EDT 1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina (2), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Ocracoke
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:17 AM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:29 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 08:34 AM EDT 0.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:19 PM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 08:55 PM EDT 1.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:17 AM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:29 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 08:34 AM EDT 0.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:19 PM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 08:55 PM EDT 1.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Morehead City, NC,
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