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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mooresville, NC

November 2, 2024 12:30 AM EDT (04:30 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:45 AM   Sunset 6:28 PM
Moonrise 7:54 AM   Moonset 5:54 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mooresville, NC
   
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Area Discussion for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 020007 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 807 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cool high pressure moves from the Great Lakes eastward going off the New England coast by Monday. This high pressure keeps temperatures across our region closer to normal for this time of year through early next week. A warmer southerly flow of air develops around mid week bringing well above normal temperatures back to our area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Key Messages...

2) Light Rain Showers Will Redevelop Overnight into Saturday Morning, Mainly over the western Piedmont

3) Patchy to Locally Dense Fog Returns to the Mountain Valleys Overnight into Daybreak Saturday

As of 751 PM EDT Friday: A weak cold front just east of the mtns will continue to move slowly eastward across the forecast area overnight. Satellite imagery continues to show extensive cloudiness along the boundary, so sky cover was bumped up again. Radar looks fairly quiet, so it would appear the shower activity has diminished as expected. The last few runs of the HRRR continue to show redevelopment along the front early Saturday, mainly over the western Piedmont zones, so we re-introduce a slight chance before daybreak. Amounts will be minimal. As for the mtns, the usual valley fog might be hindered by the lingering cloud cover.

Otherwise, the cold front should slip south of the forecast area early on Saturday, but clouds will linger across the region. It might take until well into the afternoon before we see much sun. Highs on Saturday will be slightly cooler behind the front, thanks to flow turning northeasterly, but will still end up about 4-8 degrees above climo.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of midday Fri: Fairly strong, high pressure will drift across the northeastern CONUS Saturday night and Sunday. Cold front will ooze south of the area; based on reduced thicknesses alone this should result in temps being a few degrees cooler on Sunday compared to the previous day. Although the synoptic setup is reminiscent of CAD over the weekend, this high is a few mb too weak to support classical CAD.
Furthermore, 925-850mb winds should veer to northerly over portions of NC/SC in the wake of the front, but continue to appear light (15 kt or less). This will limit the degree of airmass change. Low-level ridge is shown to remain centered near the Southeast coast, and some model solutions maintain southerly flow over the front within the CWA Saturday night, particularly the western areas. With time southerly flow is increasingly likely to occur within that layer, and moistening generally occurs as a result. This warrants some cloud cover lingering Saturday night, diminishing diurnally Sunday, and then redeveloping Sunday night and lasting most of Monday. The deterministic models develop very little to no QPF until Sunday night or Monday, but even then their response is small and limited to the southeasterly upslope areas (below the Blue Ridge Escarpment) and the Savannah River Valley.
If precip does develop, it could promote hybrid CAD, although by then the parent high will have drifted into a somewhat less favorable position. More persistent cloud cover should lead to Monday's max temps trending still cooler, finally returning to around normal in many spots. The currently small chance of CAD further supports such a trend as cooler solutions are incorporated into model blends; if CAD does transpire temps likely would end up at least a little below normal for the majority of the CWA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 200 PM Fri: Influence of high pressure to our northeast will diminish at least slightly Monday night as it weakens and moves further offshore; flow in the 925-850mb layer atop it will veer, becoming more southerly than SE'ly Tuesday. Precip chances increase a bit with somewhat better model response developing, with upglide persisting and moisture flux possibly being enhanced as next cold front moves into the MS Valley. The airmass will modify and thicknesses increase a little, so temps are most likely going to be at least slightly warmer, although any warming trend will be muted by abundant cloud cover that day, if not the effect of weak/shallow in-situ CAD developing with precip. The moist southerly flow regime will continue until the front reaches the area, which currently does not look likely to occur until after the end of the period Thursday night, so periodic cloud cover and small PoPs remain in the forecast through then. Temps warm back to around 10 degrees above normal Wed and still warmer Thursday. It is worth pointing out that NHC has an area of interest in the southern Caribbean which has a high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone in the southern Gulf of Mexico late next week. The Canadian GDPS is a fast outlier in bringing this system north and allowing its moisture to be pulled into the frontal zone Thursday, resulting in considerably higher QPF over the CWA at that time. Other models (GFS/EC and their ensembles) do not develop this interaction and keep QPF low-impact thru the end of the period.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals through the late evening as a cold front moves slowly across the region. The boundary should keep moisture pooled across the region, particularly on the poleward side, with satellite imagery showing a wide band of ceiling restrictions. The guidance seems to hit this fairly hard with MVFR or worse ceiling restrictions developing around daybreak Saturday at all terminals. The LAMP is quite pessimistic with the possibility of brief IFR/LIFR at most terminals. We will lean in that direction, but conservatively for now. Seems likely that a low cloud ceiling will redevelop with some daytime heating Saturday, most likely MVFR into the early afternoon. The wind should be mostly NE behind the boundary into Saturday afternoon.

Outlook: MVFR restrictions may linger through Saturday evening, especially at KAVL. Drier weather and VFR conditions are expected Sunday into Monday as dry high pressure builds back over the terminals. Another weak cold front approaches out of the west Tuesday into Thursday bringing light rain chances, and possibly restrictions, back to the terminals. Mountain valley fog and low stratus may develop each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSVH STATESVILLE RGNL,NC 14 sm25 mincalm2 smPartly Cloudy Mist 61°F61°F100%30.22
KIPJ LINCOLNTONLINCOLN COUNTY RGNL,NC 16 sm25 mincalm1 sm-- Mist 63°F61°F94%30.22
KJQF CONCORDPADGETT RGNL,NC 16 sm25 mincalm1/2 smOvercast Mist 63°F63°F100%30.23
KRUQ MIDCAROLINA RGNL,NC 20 sm25 mincalmOvercast64°F63°F94%30.21

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Greer, SC,





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