Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mooresville, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1. Breezy, mostly dry, and hot again today with afternoon temperatures flirting with record highs east of the mountains. A cold front brings cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and beneficial rain tonight into Sunday. However, with only light rainfall amounts expected, there will be very little (if any) relief from the drought and fire weather concerns will stick around.
2. Normal to slightly-below-normal temperatures are forecast early next week, with Fire Weather concerns continuing. Some frost is possible over the mountains Sunday and especially Monday night, so precautions might be needed to protect sensitive vegetation.
3. Very warm and dry conditions return late next week, exacerbating Fire Weather concerns and drought conditions.

DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Breezy, mostly dry, and hot again today with afternoon temperatures flirting with record highs east of the mountains. A cold front brings cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and beneficial rain tonight into Sunday. However, with only light rainfall amounts expected, there will be very little (if any) relief from the drought and fire weather concerns will stick around.

Dry high pressure lingers over the region today as upper ridging builds over the East Coast and keeps well above normal temperatures around. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach out of the west allowing flow to pick up out of the southwest by mid to late morning. Increasing SW'ly flow will lead to hotter afternoon temperatures and slightly higher relative humidity values. However, minimum relative humidity values still appear to fall near/below 30% across the lower elevations. With state-wide burn bans in effect until further notice across the Carolinas, no Fire Danger Statements will be needed for today. However, another SPS for Increased Fire Danger will be needed for northeast Georgia today from 12 PM to 8 PM. Although min RHs may not drop to 30% or less across northeast Georgia, breezy winds combined with very dry fuels and ongoing drought will allow any fires that develop to spread quickly. Highs east of the mountains will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, flirting with daily records at KGSP and KCLT. KGSP still appears to have the highest chance of breaking the daily record high as the NBM shows an 80% chance of MaxT>89 degrees. KCLT still appears to have a lower chance to break the daily record as the NBM only shows a 30% chance of MaxT>93. Luckily breezy winds will provide some relief from the heat this afternoon. Gusts will remain well below advisory criteria.

Upper ridging gets nudged offshore this evening into tonight as an upper trough approaches out of the west. At the surface, a cold front will track across the GSP CWA this evening into tonight bringing much needed rainfall to the region late tonight into Sunday morning. However, rainfall amounts will remain light, especially east of the mountains as the last few runs of the CAMs continue to show activity weakening as it pushes off the mountains. Thus, confidence on whether areas east of the mountains will see rain hold together remains low. Even if activity manages to hold together well enough to squeak out some light showers east of the mountains, QPF amounts appear to max out at a a few hundreths of an inch or less.
Lower elevations across the mountains could see QPF amounts from a few hundreths of an inch to up to a tenth of an inch. The higher elevations across the North Carolina mountains will see the highest QPF amounts, ranging from a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch. Isolated locations along the southern NC/TN border could see up to half an inch of rainfall. These rainfall amounts will lead to very little (if any) drought relief.

Gusty winds will develop along and behind the cold front late tonight into Sunday especially across the mountains as winds flip NW. Most locations will see gusts remain below advisory criteria (<45 mph) but some areas along the Blue Ridge Escarpment could see gusts briefly reach advisory criteria (>45 mph) Sunday morning. Will hold off on a Wind Advisory for now as the NBM has a 20% chance or less of reaching advisory criteria in isolated locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment.

Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front on Sunday, allowing below normal temperatures and lower relative humidity to return area-wide. Minimum relative humidity should fall below 25% across much of the lower elevations on Sunday. Low relative humidity combined with gusty winds, ongoing drought, and the lack of a decent wetting rain will allow fire weather concerns to return again on Sunday. The good news is that we appear to remain below Red Flag Criteria.

Key message 2: Normal to slightly-below-normal temperatures are forecast early next week, with Fire Weather concerns continuing. Some frost is possible over the mountains Sunday and especially Monday night, so precautions might be needed to protect sensitive vegetation.

The axis of an anomalous upper trough will progress gradually across the East Sunday night/Monday before pushing off the East Coast Monday night. As an upper ridge progresses through the central Conus, weakly confluent upper flow will persist over the East into mid-week, supporting dry low-level high pressure across our region through Tuesday and beyond. The dry air mass will support good radiational cooling conditions Sunday night and especially Monday night, resulting in min temps a solid 5+ degrees below climo both nights. This could support some patchy frost in sheltered locations of the mountain valleys and possibly the far northern zones, especially Monday night when winds will be lightest.

Otherwise, while the cooler weather will marginally improve the fire weather environment, critical afternoon RH of less than 25% is expected to become widespread Monday and Tuesday afternoons. While winds are forecast to be below critical levels Monday, gusts of 20-25 mph are expected across the mountains Monday afternoon, with 15-20 mph gusts possible elsewhere. Fire Danger concerns will therefore persist early next week, even as winds diminish into Tuesday.

Key message 3: Very warm and dry conditions return late next week, exacerbating Fire Weather concerns and drought conditions.

A broad area of dry low-level high pressure will linger across the southern Appalachians and vicinity through at least Thursday, as a rather deep upper ridge steadily builds into the eastern states from the west. Very warm temperatures will return to our area by Wednesday...when max temps are forecast to increase to 5+ degrees above climo...further warming to around 10 degrees above normal for Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, moisture return is forecast to remain minimal until at least Friday, so conditions will remain dry.
Very low...if not critical afternoon RH is forecast each day through the end of the week. Winds will generally remain a non-factor, but the hot and dry atmosphere along with the steadily deteriorating fuels situation will result in continued elevated/unusually high fire danger (for mid-spring) despite the rapid green-up that is underway.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through late tonight thanks to high pressure remaining over the region. A cold front will track across the terminals late tonight into Sunday morning bringing -SHRA chances and possibly associated restrictions. Thus, introduced PROB30s for -SHRA this TAF cycle. Confidence on -SHRA is highest at KAVL with lower confidence east of the mountains as activity is expected to gradually weaken as it pushes across and east of the mountains. Winds will be calm to light and VRB through early this morning before picking up out of the SW by mid to late morning while gradually increasing in speed. Low-end gusts from 16-19 kts will develop this afternoon before diminishing early this evening. Winds will remain SW ahead of the front, flipping NW behind the front late tonight into early Sunday morning. Gusty winds will develop along and behind the front late tonight into Sunday, with gusts ranging from 18-25 kts east of the mountains and 23-32 kts at KAVL. Cirrus will continue passing overhead, thickening from west to east this afternoon into daybreak Sunday ahead of the front.

Outlook: Rain chances and possible restrictions linger through Sunday morning. Gusty winds linger through Sunday. Dry and VFR conditions return by Sunday afternoon, lingering into next week.

CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-18

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...None.
SC...None.