Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mooresville, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 200 PM: A virtually stacked low pressure system is seen on water vapor imagery and sfc analysis, centered over the Mississippi Delta region. A broad region of SE'ly flow is occurring over the Carolinas/Georgia on the warm side of this system; isentropic lift generally will persist through tonight. Weak in-situ cold air damming persists over the region, having developed Sunday. Difficult to pick out exactly where the wedge boundary is, but it appears to be well south of the CWA The edge of more stratiform clouds now west of the Savannah River appears aligned with the leading edge of a midlevel dry slot which will shift slowly east over the area over the next 12 hours. Differential heating along that cloud edge and slightly cooler air aloft have led to development of a band of convection gradually shifting into the area. The wedge may slowly erode along this boundary via mixing. Some breaks are also seen in the SC Midlands as a result of diurnal warming. LCLs are already low, but surface-based convection will become increasingly possible with any low-level clearing. A few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE is progged over the eastern areas with more than 1000 possible near the Savannah River. Although winds aloft are not especially strong, with sfc winds being backed at SE to E, low-level shear and helicity are fairly high: 0-1km shear of 25-30 kt and 0-3km SRH exceeding 200 m2/s2. Bands of showers/storms with weak circulations have been observed on radar at numerous times today and with increasing instability, the tornado threat will increase.

Elevated PWATs and the potential for multiple rounds of showers/storms suggest the threat of excessive rainfall is nonzero. CAM output has gradually trended toward lower total QPF and less supportive of hourly rates near flash-flood guidance. No changes have been made to the extent of the previously issued Flood Watch, with the focusing mechanism of the Blue Ridge Escarpment in the persistent southerly flow regime being the most concerning element; it looks well placed in that regard.

Slow northward movement of the low will veer low-level winds tonight, weakening moisture flux; dry slot will also shift over the area. Shear parameters will diminish during the evening; surface-based storms also will become less likely. Hence the tornado threat too is expected to diminish. PWATs decline from west to east between approx. 03z-09z tonight as the dry slot expands over the area. The heavy rain threat likely will taper off in that timeframe as well. There won't be much of a wedge erosion mechanism, so whatever is left could remain into morning until diurnal insolation can work to thaty effect. The closed portion of the 500mb low will drift north over TN/KY by that time, so we will see 700-500mb lapse rates increase to near 7C/km during peak heating Tuesday. Profiles will not be saturated thru a deep layer like today/tonight, but should be supportive of deep updrafts. For now have kept PoPs mostly in the scattered to low likely range (the latter over the mountains). Can't completely rule out severe weather, with 0-6km shear of 30+ kt supportive of multicells producing a wind or marginally severe hail threat.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1225 PM Monday: The upper low will be departing from the area at the beginning of the short range period with ridging asserting itself across the region by Thursday. This will lead to a shift in the low level flow to more westerly/southwesterly and more diurnal showers/storms each day with overall lighter rainfall amounts. High temperatures are expected to be around normal on Wednesday climbing to several degrees above normal on Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1235 PM Monday: The upper ridging pattern will shift quickly to the east by Friday and then off the coast by the weekend. An upper low over the Great Lakes states will create an active storm pattern across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for Friday into the weekend. A northwest flow pattern that will set up between the low and ridging to our southwest, causing some of these storms to make a run at our area during the extended period. Thus, will maintain the chance of showers/storms through the extended period.

High temperatures through the extended period look to average around 5 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Where precip does not occur this afternoon, mostly MVFR to low VFR stratocu will prevail thru early evening; wholesale deterioration in cigs is expected tonight. Multiple rounds of convective precip (SHRA) however are likely at all terminals through tonight with a chance of TSRA. Any flavor of precip will be capable of bringing IFR cig, with isolated +SHRA or TSRA potentially resulting in IFR to LIFR vsby. Utilized TEMPO for relatively higher confidence fcst of restrictions per radar/obs trends early in the period, with PROB30 generally handling less certain development in the late aftn/evening. TSRA most likely between issuance and sunset, although can't be ruled out in the first few hrs of the night. Precip becoming less likely late tonight from S to N. IFR to LIFR cigs thru daybreak with low vsby particularly likely where precip does end. Scattering cigs in some areas by late morning Tue with MVFR to low VFR bases. Diurnally driven SHRA or even TSRA could develop after 18z Tue which prompted another PROB30 at KCLT.

Outlook: SHRA/TSRA gradually taper off Tue night. Drier conditions return by mid-week, but sufficient moisture will likely remain to support at least scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NCZ033-035-049-050- 063>065-501>510.
SC...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for SCZ102-103.