Asheville, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Asheville, NC

April 21, 2024 8:48 AM EDT (12:48 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:47 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM
Moonrise 5:14 PM   Moonset 4:43 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 211101 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 701 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
Much cooler temperatures and widespread light rain is expected through this afternoon with drier weather returning by Monday.
Warmer weather returns by Tuesday and continues through the workweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 651 AM EDT Sunday: The combination of improving upper divergence from the right entrance region of a jet streak and low level improving isentropic upglide had accelerated the northeastward progression of the light precip over the past few hours, to the point where most of the region was experiencing light rain. This has necessitated a hefty increase in the precip probs right away. Can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder over the Lakelands where some elevated instability remains.

The coverage might also reach an early apex, because as quickly as it ramps up, the main band of isentropic lift starts to translate to the east, as does the upper divergence because the jet axis also shifts eastward. The damage to the forecast will have already been done by early afternoon, however, locking in a strange sort of in-situ cold air damming wedge. Naturally, temps will be cool...quite a bit cooler than recent days and not getting out of the 50s during daylight hours. The high temps for the calendar day have probably already occurred in most places. For tonight, this wedge is an unusual set-up, what with the high pressure center over the central High Plains and little reflection over the Mid-Atlantic region. This odd arrangement comes to what seems to be an early end, as the cool pool east of the mtns looks like it will drain away in the early morning hours on Monday. Temps may cool off enough by daybreak Monday and sky will start to clear off as high pressure builds in over the mtns, to support some frost development in the mtn valleys. As it stands, though, the wind forecast is too much to support frost formation. Low temps should be 5-10 degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday: Shortwave trough will be in the midst of shifting across the CFWA, while surface high propagates eastward from the Lower/Mid MS Valley on Monday. In this case, cool north-northwesterly low-level flow and colder air aloft will keep temperatures ~10 degrees below normal for afternoon highs, with mostly sunny skies. The aforementioned surface high will set up shop over the CFWA by Monday night and set the stage for good radiational cooling conditions across the region. With light winds, tight dewpoint depressions, and temperatures remaining 6-10 degrees below normal, expect areas of frost to develop, mainly in the southern/central NC mountains and locations along and north of I-40 (active growing zones). A Frost Advisory may be needed for these zones Monday night, especially if trends continue to run cooler per model guidance. Airmass will begin to modify Tuesday as the surface high slips offshore the Southeast Coast and weak south-southwesterly WAA filters into the area. Factor in rising heights and afternoon highs will return to near-normal values for most locations. Stout shortwave trough with an attendant frontal boundary will begin to encroach from the northwest. The front is forecasted to be near the TN/NC border by daybreak Wednesday. The parent low and better forcing will reside well to the north and east of the CFWA, while the front moves into a moisture starved environment. As a result, only able to muster up slight chance PoPs along the immediate TN border. Otherwise, overnight lows Monday will rebound and return to near-normals values.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday: Model guidance sag the aforementioned frontal boundary through the rest of the CFWA during the day Wednesday. The latest runs are showing some fanfare of showers and thunderstorms developing along the boundary in the Piedmont zones during peak heating. Decided to hold off on mentionable PoPs for Wednesday afternoon since this is the first run(s)
showing this possibility. Afternoon highs will run slightly above normal Wednesday with continued southwesterly WAA ahead of the front as the surface centers itself between the Southeast Coast and Bermuda. As of now, model guidance makes a clean fropa by Wednesday night and a canadian surface high moves in behind the front over the Great Lakes region by Thursday, while the front becomes quasi-stationary south of the I-20 corridor. This will set up a very pleasant day Thursday in this scenario with highs at or slightly below normal. Surface high will remain in control of the sensible weather through early Friday as it shifts across the northeastern CONUS and settles offshore the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday. Low amplitude upper ridging will move over the eastern-third of the CONUS by late into the upcoming workweek, while a digging upper trough induces surface cyclogenesis over the High Plains. This is likely our next weather maker as the aforementioned stalled boundary generates warm frontal activation and lifts north of the CFWA, placing the area into a warm sector regime. Whether or not showers and storms will form along the warm front is still in question this far out, but the parent low is forecasted to move into the Great Lakes region. Model guidance this far out noses a stronger upper ridge into the area, which keeps the trailing frontal boundary from reaching this far south and east through the forecast period.
Temperatures should remain near-normal or slightly above through the end of medium range.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Starting out VFR, east of the mountains, but this will quickly go downhill as the rain brings a low cloud ceiling down to the MVFR level through mid-morning. Guidance suggests a further downward progression into the late morning. The latest guidance is quite pessimistic with its IFR stratus deck lingering through much of the day. I'm not yet convinced of the IFR and have kept most places prevailing MVFR for the time being, with a TEMPO for IFR in the early afternoon. Wind should remain NE through the daytime. The rain will get carried off to the east in the late afternoon and early evening, and when that happens, expect the vis/ceiling to recover gradually. Most places end the period VFR.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions continue Monday as high pressure builds over the region from the west.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KAVL ASHEVILLE RGNL,NC 10 sm44 minN 0810 smOvercast46°F45°F93%30.03
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