Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Asheville, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 923 AM Tuesday: The ongoing forecast remains largely on track this morning as scattered showers continue to push east into the I- 77 corridor. Temperatures have quickly warmed behind the showers and highs have been nudged up a degree or so across the board.
Otherwise, no major changes were needed.

The next 24 hours will continue to be dominated by the slow moving mid/upper low passing by to our west/northwest. The best mid/upper forcing has already moved off to the north and the remaining forcing looks weak. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows that a mid-level dry slot has already worked its way into our region as it wraps around the low. Breaks in the overcast this morning should allow for enough destabilization to quickly form new showers and thunderstorms by midday. There should be enough cold air aloft to keep the low levels buoyant, suggesting that a likely to categorical prob would be appropriate. Severe weather looks relatively unlikely, but if there's any location that has a better chance than others it would be the NW Piedmont, at least that is the indication in the 00Z HRRR. The convection will be driven thermodynamically, so once we lose heating around sunset, coverage should drop substantially. High temps today will rebound back toward normal and will remain seasonally mild tonight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 AM Tuesday: The upper low will open into a trough as it crosses the Ohio Valley Wednesday. The trough axis will cross the CWFA and provide another day of diurnal scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Convection should have a decent east to northeast storm motion, limiting any heavy rain threat. Severe chances should be low, as well, with generally 1500 J/kg or less of CAPE. However, with bulk shear around 30 kt, can't rule out a few strong storms. The trough lifts to the NE on Thursday, with upper ridge quickly building into the region. This should result in a mostly dry day with just isolated diurnal mountain convection. Temperatures will be on a warming trend. Highs will be near normal Wednesday, and a few degrees above normal Thursday. Lows will be above normal both Wed and Thu nights.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 215 AM Tuesday: An upper ridge over the Southeast will be flattened somewhat by a passing upper low across the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. This will bring a cold front into the Ohio Valley and result in active weather upstream of the forecast area. The 00z guidance is not too excited on bringing this activity into the CWFA. But with westerly to northwesterly steering flow and good shear along with an axis of strong instability, a mountain-crossing MCS may be possible. For now, will continue to solid chance to likely PoPs along the TN border Fri into Fri night, tapering to just slight chc in the far southeast zones. There is always a lot of uncertainty on whether conditions will line up for convection to survive across the mountains and into the Piedmont. In any case, the better instability looks to shift south and east of the area Saturday and Sunday, with dry west-northwesterly flow behind the front. Thicknesses do not fall much, so temps will remain above normal. Friday looks like the warmest day of the week, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 east of the mountains.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Morning stratus has since lifted and scattered across much of the area with VFR conditions prevailing through most of the TAF period. A cumulus field is present across the region and brief instance of MVFR ceilings cannot be completely ruled out, but will be the exception and not the rule. Otherwise, a cluster of thunderstorms has pushed east of KCLT with a second area of showers and storms farther west across the southwest North Carolina mountains and into the western Upstate. Scattered showers and storms may impact any given terminal through the afternoon with subsequent visibility and ceiling restrictions. Showers and storms should decrease in coverage this evening with loss of daytime heating. Another round of low stratus with MVFR to IFR ceilings will be possible along with several instances of fog. Conditions will slowly improve tomorrow morning with a return to VFR by late morning to early afternoon.

Outlook: Chances for diurnal scattered showers and storms will continue through Wednesday. The potential for organized complexes of thunderstorms to move into the area from the TN and OH Valley will increase late in the week into the weekend...although much uncertainty surrounds timing and track of these complexes. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each morning...primarily in the mountain valleys and in areas that receive appreciable rainfall the previous afternoon/evening.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.