Boys Ranch, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boys Ranch, TX

April 12, 2024 3:50 PM CDT (20:50 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:16 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM
Moonrise 8:51 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boys Ranch, TX
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Area Discussion for - Amarillo, TX
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FXUS64 KAMA 121903 AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 203 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Unfortunately, fire weather and warming temperatures are still the main highlights today and tomorrow. Rising heights aloft and warming 850mb temperatures are helping highs to escalate this afternoon, climbing well into the low to mid 80s. While the pressure gradient isn't all that impressive, slightly breezy southwest winds of 15-25 mph should last into the evening hours, while also bringing drier air to the northwest Panhandles. As a result, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be present this afternoon and evening. Winds may look to slightly increase overnight as a LLJ kicks in, and will act to limit radiational cooling with lows in staying in the upper 40s and 50s.

Saturday will see slight degradation of ridging due to an advancing closed low off the Pacific coast. But 850mb temps will ramp up again along with high temperatures, reaching towards 90 degrees in isolated locations. Although conditions will be similar to today, Saturday afternoon should be a touch breezier out of the southwest. Very low dew pts in the single digits will be advected to the western Panhandles, and could see more widespread minimum RH values in the single digits. Elevated to critical fire weather will be possible in the west and northern Panhandles as a result.
Overnight temperatures into Sunday will be on the warm side, very comparable to tonight.

Harrel

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

SUMMARY...Questions still loom over Monday's active outlook, but impactful weather, whether it be predominantly of the fire or severe thunderstorm variety, is still in the cards to start the work week. Sunday will be well on the seasonably warm side, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s currently forecast, some of our highest temperatures since last October. The rest of the long term looks much quieter as an upper disturbance exits. A pair of fronts with breezy winds will move in, providing a minor cool down on Tuesday, with a distinctively stronger cold front being depicted by most models Wed night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION...A vigorous upper level low is progged to approach the Plains next week, generating favorable dynamics for a deepening sfc low over the central Plains. As the low develops through the day, a dry line will start to take shape as it moves eastward, eventually situating itself somewhere from western Oklahoma to the central-eastern Panhandles. This feature will serve to delineate a pronounced threat of critical fire weather to its west, and potentially substantial severe storms to its east.
Much to our annoyance, models still have split agreement on which solution to anticipate regarding the dry line position (further west vs further east). Both deterministic and ensemble guidance provide support for either outcome, but at this time, have generally trended slightly further west. This lines up with internal expectations, that the dry line will likely setup in between the two extremes, putting it over the eastern Panhandles Monday afternoon and evening. Moisture return east of the dryline should allow ample instability to build as daytime heating occurs, and lift along the sfc boundary ahead of the main upper level support will help initiate thunderstorms where any localized breaks in the cap exist. If storms initiate far enough into the central to eastern Panhandles, they would have strong shear in place to quickly become severe and be capable of all hazards before crossing into western Oklahoma. If storms fail to initiate in the afternoon/evening, it's not out of the question they materialize later Monday night as the dryline retreats westward and collides with a Pacific front, which could still pose a risk for severe weather.

We have to re-emphasize that there's still plenty of uncertainty, and that the dryline could very well go racing into western Oklahoma, leaving the entire Panhandles high and dry with fire weather concerns. As of right now, the far eastern and southeast combined Panhandles have the highest probabilities to see storms/precipitation (20-40% POPs). The west-northwestern Panhandles have the best chance to see dry conditions, where stronger southwest winds of 25-35 mph gusting 40-50 mph combine with low RH values in the single digits. Solidly critical fire weather conditions would be in place as a result for at least those areas, wherever fuels are receptive. But like we've already seen last month on March 24th, the dryline is more than capable of being held further west and initiating storms deeper into our coverage area, despite very little support from model guidance.

Harrel

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites, with generally south- southwest winds picking up this afternoon. A low level jet could cause some LLWS at KDHT and KGUY, especially if winds die down at the surface overnight. If winds stay up however, LLWS would not be as much of a concern.

Harrel

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Low-end critical fire weather conditions, primarily driven by very low relative humidity, are favored in the northwestern combined Panhandles today. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain possible in the northwestern Panhandles through this evening, returning to the north and western Panhandles tomorrow due to low relative humidity and breezy winds.

Weak relative humidity recovery is expected Sunday night (max values between 20% to 40% in the western combined Panhandles) as we head into Monday where high-end critical fire weather conditions are favored west of a dryline due to 25 to 35 mph sustained southwesterly winds with gusts up to 50 mph and relative humidity between 5% to 10%. There is uncertainty regarding how far east the dryline will move during the day, and thus how far east the critical fire weather conditions will spread, though the western combined Panhandles will almost certainly be west of the dryline. There is also question of how receptive the fuels will be given the greenup ongoing for portions of the area, and the recent 2-4" of rain in the southern Texas Panhandle. Currently have better confidence that fuels will be more receptive in the northwestern combined Panhandles given that area has been mostly dry lately, and that is also where accelerated drying is expected Sunday night. Currently expecting RFTIs between 6-8 for the western half of the combined Panhandles with isolated 9s possible in the northwest.

Vanden Bosch/Harrel

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 51 84 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 52 89 49 91 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 48 84 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 53 90 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 50 87 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 51 83 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 52 85 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 44 84 43 85 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 49 87 46 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 49 84 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 54 87 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 52 85 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 51 85 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 50 85 52 89 / 0 0 0 0

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDUX MOORE COUNTY,TX 20 sm15 minS 10G2010 smClear82°F36°F19%30.07
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Wind History from DUX
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GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas   
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Amarillo, TX,



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