Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boys Ranch, TX

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 201 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper-level trough spinning just east of Baja California and moving into northwestern Mexico. A broad plume of moisture is extending northeastward from the upper low with embedded perturbations within the flow aloft resulting in bands of wintry precipitation throughout western and northwestern Texas, and the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Sleet has been reported as far north as Shamrock this morning which is evidence of a more robust warm layer aloft than previously anticipated.

Going into the mid afternoon, additional perturbations are expected to move into the region resulting in more precipitation and banding mostly across the southern Texas Panhandle but isolated to scattered snow will be possible elsewhere. Forecast soundings show this warm layer aloft will cool as the upper-level trough approaches which will result in all precipitation turning to snow this afternoon. As the upper-level low approaches southwest Texas later this afternoon and this evening, we will see a band of moderate to heavy snow develop to our southwest and move northeastward into the Panhandles.
A majority of the CAMs, operational models, and global ensembles keep this band south and east of Amarillo. With that said, the CAMs have not handled the location of the precipitation well this morning. Most of the CAMs have been too dry while a few have misplaced it to the west or slightly too far south. Therefore, there is reason to question the currently forecasted placement of the banding later today and through tonight.

In any case, expecting a southwest-northeast gradient in the snowfall from this afternoon through tonight with 1-3" northwest of the gradient and 6-8" southeast of the gradient, locally higher possible. Will have to keep an eye on the model trends through this afternoon and an eye on the radar trends once the band develops as a a quick, last minute trend in the snow totals to the north or south is certainly in the realm of possibilities. Locations like Amarillo, Pampa, and Canadian are currently forecast to be within the gradient which means any last minute trend north or south could result in snow amounts 2-3" higher or lower than the current forecast.

Lighter snowfall is favored to continue in the SE half of the Texas Panhandle after Midnight as dry air aloft moves in from the north, but accumulations should stay below an inch. Meanwhile, lows are expected to be around -5 degrees to 5 degrees with wind chills as low as -20 degrees. The Extreme Cold Warning has been expanded further west in the southern Texas Panhandle.

The upper-level low will move off to the east on Sunday and temperatures will rebound some (compared to today) with highs expected to be in the teens in the east to mid-20s in the west.
Another trough will swing down from the Northern Plains and Sunday night and bring another chance for some snow to the northern Panhandles. However, less than an inch of snow is currently expected. Lows will once again drop to near-zero or below zero for Sunday night; an Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for the majority of the southern Texas Panhandle while a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the rest of the Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 201 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Troughing will persist over the Eastern US as heights rise slightly across the southern and central Plains through Monday and Tuesday. A compact shortwave trough embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft is favored to track across the Panhandles on Tuesday, but no precipitation is currently anticipated owing to a very dry airmass.
Heights will rise again on Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge tries to build in, but temperatures are favored to stay cooler than normal.

Will have to watch later in the week, Thursday night into Friday, for some precipitation potential as a weak shortwave could move in from the northwest.

Vanden Bosch

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

MVFR ceilings are currently in place for Amarillo and Dalhart, and should continue through the day, and lifting to VFR by Sunday morning. Snow is expected and/or ongoing at all 3 terminals throughout today and this evening. There's low confidence regarding when there will be breaks in the snow, particularly later this afternoon and evening. Pockets of heavier snow will be possible resulting in reduced visibility. Amendments will likely be needed through the day.

Vanden Bosch

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ001-006.

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for TXZ001>003-006- 007-011.

Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for TXZ001>011-016.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for TXZ002-003-007.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ004-005- 008>020-317.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ004-005- 008>010-012>020-317.

Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for TXZ012>015-017>020-317.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for OKZ001.

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for OKZ001-002.

Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for OKZ001>003.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for OKZ002.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for OKZ003.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Sunday for OKZ003.