Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boys Ranch, TX
July 3, 2024 12:52 AM CDT (05:52 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:36 AM Sunset 9:07 PM Moonrise 3:10 AM Moonset 6:34 PM |
FXUS64 KAMA 030006 AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 706 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today through Wednesday night for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Some of the storms on either day could be severe, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary hazards. Temperatures tomorrow will be a bit cooler with cloud cover lingering across the area and potential showers.
Latest visible satellite imagery depicts mid level clouds remaining across most of the central and eastern Panhandles early this afternoon. These clouds have not been handled well by model guidance, even at the time of this writing. Temperatures have struggled to warm up across much of the area with most locations still in the lower 90s down to the mid 80s. A cold front is continuing to slowly move south across the region this afternoon and is currently along a line from south of Dalhart, up through near Spearman, and up through western portions of Beaver county.
Regarding the thunderstorm chances for today, the cloud cover has definitely had an impact on how early storms are now expected to develop later on today. Initially, storms were expected to begin firing along the cold front around 3-4 PM this afternoon as areas ahead of the front reached the convective temperature for today.
With highs now a few degrees lower than initially forecast, it is looking more and more likely that temperatures will not hit the convective temperatures for today. Current thinking is that the storm potential will hold off until late afternoon or early evening as storms move in from the west. Still cannot rule out some storms developing along the front as the better upper level lift provided by a shortwave trough moves in during the evening hours however. Some of the storms still could become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards with sufficient instability and shear. If storms can form and move north of the cold front, the storms may have the potential to have somewhat larger hail than currently expected as the effective shear is around 30 to 40 kts. Showers and storms may continue through the overnight hours but the severe potential should wane as after late this evening.
There may be a bit of a lull in the showers and storms around sunrise tomorrow, but a few isolated to scattered showers or storms may still be around the Panhandles. With plenty of moisture throughout the column as depicted by model soundings, it will not take much lift to generate more showers and storms during the daytime hours tomorrow. Shower and storm activity looks to become more widespread late in the morning into early afternoon as a weak disturbance moves across the region. Model soundings indicate most of this activity will likely be elevated as surface temperatures struggle to warm up tomorrow given plentiful cloud cover and the precipitation prospects. Temperatures for tomorrow should be a bit cooler than today with all the cloud cover and precipitation chances during the daytime hours. The best chance for locations to potentially see a few strong to severe storms tomorrow appears to be across the west/northwest for Wednesday afternoon if enough heating can occur and storms move off of the higher terrain and get to the Panhandles. Confidence is severe storms right now is low as models have not been handling the temperatures well due to the cloud cover, so that will need to be closely monitored over the next 24 hours. Wednesday night any showers and storms should dissipate and exit the area as the shortwave trough exits off to the east/northeast.
Muscha
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorm chances continue each day from Thursday through early next week. Some of the storms could be strong to severe on these days, but details regarding that will need to be worked out in the coming days. Otherwise, temperatures will be cooler than the past week or two, with highs in the 80s and 90s.
Independence Day is looking to be a fairly nice Summer day for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Westerly flow is expected aloft as ridging begins to build in across the western CONUS and troughing remains just to the north of the Panhandles across the Northern Plains. This flow will usher in another cold front that is forecast to be moving across the Panhandles by Thursday morning.
How far south this front gets throughout the day and how quickly it moves over the area vary by model to model. Current expectation is that since this front has a stronger push of cooler air, it will move through the area by late afternoon on Thursday. This will create somewhat of a gradient across the region for high temperatures, with mid 80s north to upper 90s south. With the front south of the area as a shortwave moves over the Southern High Plains, may remain south of the forecast area during Independence Day evening activities. Currently, the better chances for showers and storms will be early Friday morning.
With the cooler airmass in place on Friday, H850 temperatures are forecast to only warm up into the mid to upper teens to potentially 20 Celsius by peak heating on Friday afternoon. A cooler day is forecast with highs in the 70s and 80s across the region, a relief from the heat that some will definitely be thankful for. Winds are currently forecast to be around 15 mph or less as well so if rain chances hold off until the late afternoon and evening, Friday may be a very nice day for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Temperatures will increase slowly through the weekend with the warmest temperatures reaching the 90s.
Another weak front is being depicted by forecast model guidance on Sunday evening that would cool down temperatures a bit once again on Monday into Tuesday next week. With the flow starting as westerly late this week and becoming northwesterly during the weekend, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue each day into early next week. As we are in the Summer months, cannot rule out some strong to severe storms any of these days, but that potential will be better evaluated as we get closer to each individual day.
Muscha
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
For the 00Z TAFs, showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the region this evening and tonight. Have enough confidence to include VCTS at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA for a time period later tonight. Timing of any storms impacting the terminal sites may need to be adjusted as necessary this evening based on latest radar trends. A cold front which has already moved through KGUY and KDHT will track across KAMA later tonight. Finally, additional showers and thunderstorms may develop Wednesday. Confidence is low on location and occurrence so have omitted mention from this forecast cycle.
02
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 72 90 69 96 / 60 30 30 10 Beaver OK 68 86 65 90 / 70 40 20 0 Boise City OK 63 84 61 86 / 60 40 20 0 Borger TX 73 91 70 99 / 60 30 30 10 Boys Ranch TX 70 91 67 98 / 60 30 30 10 Canyon TX 70 90 68 95 / 60 40 30 10 Clarendon TX 72 95 73 97 / 40 30 20 20 Dalhart TX 65 88 61 92 / 50 40 20 0 Guymon OK 66 87 63 88 / 60 30 30 0 Hereford TX 71 90 68 97 / 50 40 30 10 Lipscomb TX 69 88 69 96 / 60 40 30 10 Pampa TX 70 89 69 96 / 60 30 30 10 Shamrock TX 73 97 75 100 / 40 30 10 20 Wellington TX 74 100 77 101 / 30 30 10 20
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ018>020-317.
OK...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 706 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today through Wednesday night for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Some of the storms on either day could be severe, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary hazards. Temperatures tomorrow will be a bit cooler with cloud cover lingering across the area and potential showers.
Latest visible satellite imagery depicts mid level clouds remaining across most of the central and eastern Panhandles early this afternoon. These clouds have not been handled well by model guidance, even at the time of this writing. Temperatures have struggled to warm up across much of the area with most locations still in the lower 90s down to the mid 80s. A cold front is continuing to slowly move south across the region this afternoon and is currently along a line from south of Dalhart, up through near Spearman, and up through western portions of Beaver county.
Regarding the thunderstorm chances for today, the cloud cover has definitely had an impact on how early storms are now expected to develop later on today. Initially, storms were expected to begin firing along the cold front around 3-4 PM this afternoon as areas ahead of the front reached the convective temperature for today.
With highs now a few degrees lower than initially forecast, it is looking more and more likely that temperatures will not hit the convective temperatures for today. Current thinking is that the storm potential will hold off until late afternoon or early evening as storms move in from the west. Still cannot rule out some storms developing along the front as the better upper level lift provided by a shortwave trough moves in during the evening hours however. Some of the storms still could become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards with sufficient instability and shear. If storms can form and move north of the cold front, the storms may have the potential to have somewhat larger hail than currently expected as the effective shear is around 30 to 40 kts. Showers and storms may continue through the overnight hours but the severe potential should wane as after late this evening.
There may be a bit of a lull in the showers and storms around sunrise tomorrow, but a few isolated to scattered showers or storms may still be around the Panhandles. With plenty of moisture throughout the column as depicted by model soundings, it will not take much lift to generate more showers and storms during the daytime hours tomorrow. Shower and storm activity looks to become more widespread late in the morning into early afternoon as a weak disturbance moves across the region. Model soundings indicate most of this activity will likely be elevated as surface temperatures struggle to warm up tomorrow given plentiful cloud cover and the precipitation prospects. Temperatures for tomorrow should be a bit cooler than today with all the cloud cover and precipitation chances during the daytime hours. The best chance for locations to potentially see a few strong to severe storms tomorrow appears to be across the west/northwest for Wednesday afternoon if enough heating can occur and storms move off of the higher terrain and get to the Panhandles. Confidence is severe storms right now is low as models have not been handling the temperatures well due to the cloud cover, so that will need to be closely monitored over the next 24 hours. Wednesday night any showers and storms should dissipate and exit the area as the shortwave trough exits off to the east/northeast.
Muscha
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorm chances continue each day from Thursday through early next week. Some of the storms could be strong to severe on these days, but details regarding that will need to be worked out in the coming days. Otherwise, temperatures will be cooler than the past week or two, with highs in the 80s and 90s.
Independence Day is looking to be a fairly nice Summer day for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Westerly flow is expected aloft as ridging begins to build in across the western CONUS and troughing remains just to the north of the Panhandles across the Northern Plains. This flow will usher in another cold front that is forecast to be moving across the Panhandles by Thursday morning.
How far south this front gets throughout the day and how quickly it moves over the area vary by model to model. Current expectation is that since this front has a stronger push of cooler air, it will move through the area by late afternoon on Thursday. This will create somewhat of a gradient across the region for high temperatures, with mid 80s north to upper 90s south. With the front south of the area as a shortwave moves over the Southern High Plains, may remain south of the forecast area during Independence Day evening activities. Currently, the better chances for showers and storms will be early Friday morning.
With the cooler airmass in place on Friday, H850 temperatures are forecast to only warm up into the mid to upper teens to potentially 20 Celsius by peak heating on Friday afternoon. A cooler day is forecast with highs in the 70s and 80s across the region, a relief from the heat that some will definitely be thankful for. Winds are currently forecast to be around 15 mph or less as well so if rain chances hold off until the late afternoon and evening, Friday may be a very nice day for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Temperatures will increase slowly through the weekend with the warmest temperatures reaching the 90s.
Another weak front is being depicted by forecast model guidance on Sunday evening that would cool down temperatures a bit once again on Monday into Tuesday next week. With the flow starting as westerly late this week and becoming northwesterly during the weekend, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue each day into early next week. As we are in the Summer months, cannot rule out some strong to severe storms any of these days, but that potential will be better evaluated as we get closer to each individual day.
Muscha
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
For the 00Z TAFs, showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the region this evening and tonight. Have enough confidence to include VCTS at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA for a time period later tonight. Timing of any storms impacting the terminal sites may need to be adjusted as necessary this evening based on latest radar trends. A cold front which has already moved through KGUY and KDHT will track across KAMA later tonight. Finally, additional showers and thunderstorms may develop Wednesday. Confidence is low on location and occurrence so have omitted mention from this forecast cycle.
02
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 72 90 69 96 / 60 30 30 10 Beaver OK 68 86 65 90 / 70 40 20 0 Boise City OK 63 84 61 86 / 60 40 20 0 Borger TX 73 91 70 99 / 60 30 30 10 Boys Ranch TX 70 91 67 98 / 60 30 30 10 Canyon TX 70 90 68 95 / 60 40 30 10 Clarendon TX 72 95 73 97 / 40 30 20 20 Dalhart TX 65 88 61 92 / 50 40 20 0 Guymon OK 66 87 63 88 / 60 30 30 0 Hereford TX 71 90 68 97 / 50 40 30 10 Lipscomb TX 69 88 69 96 / 60 40 30 10 Pampa TX 70 89 69 96 / 60 30 30 10 Shamrock TX 73 97 75 100 / 40 30 10 20 Wellington TX 74 100 77 101 / 30 30 10 20
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ018>020-317.
OK...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KDUX
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KDUX
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KDUX
Wind History graph: DUX
(wind in knots)
Amarillo, TX,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE