Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boys Ranch, TX

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Mid level high center over the deep south will retreat to near KY/TN through Sunday morning as a deep trough by June standards deepens across the Rockies. These features will nicely tap into monsoon moisture in Mexico pulling it up across NM and WRN TX. A weak short wave (disturbance) over far eastern NM could be timed better, but enough energy is expected to hang back this aftn for isolated storms to initiate in NE NM and far SW Texas Panhandle in the initial moisture axis in place. Most high resolution models have at least a weak storm or two across the west between 22 UTC and 3 UTC and more agressive ones (FV3 and RRFS) bring storms as far east as Amarillo before dissipating this evening. There is no severe outlook for the area, but if storms initiate, a severe downburst can not be ruled out given DCAPE exceeding 1700 J/kg.

The more significant monsoon moisture will begin reaching especially the western areas on Sunday. Models that area restricting eastward progressive of POPs more than you would think based on the location of moisture axis seem to be doing so because they have short wave energy a bit further NW and indicate little subsidence across the central and especially eastern Panhandles. That said the west will be favored for the highest POPs and the NBM still appears a little low based on the moisture feed alone. SPC includes all but the SE Panhandles in a at least a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe outlook and the entire NW 3rd to half is now included in a slight risk for severe storms (level 2 of 5). Downburst winds will be the greatest threat given only minimal wind shear and warm mid level temperatures, however can't totally rule out a storm producing around 1 inch hail or slightly greater. The far western Panhandles has also been included in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as well given potential for rates exceeding 1 inch per hour on a localized level.

Gittinger

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Monday currently has the highest POPs for the week as the best combination of monsoon moisture axis over the area and weak SW-NE moving upper level disturbances come together. While the west is still favored for highest chances (NBM 40-60% - still likely too low), the isolated to scattered chances will extend east to include most of the area except the southeast corner which really gets the short end of this event. There is decent model agreement the moisture axis will shift west a bit on Tuesday favoring the far west and more into NM again as the ridge builds in from the east ever so slightly. The main trough kicks out an weakens but at the expense of the west side of the ridge which brings moisture and rain chances further east again Wednesday through Friday. While severe storm can't be ruled out, the rainfall will be the main story with this event for the week. The NBM and LREF probability of an inch or more rainfall at any given location across the west through Wednesday morning is around 30-50 percent with around a 10-20 percent chance as far east as Stratford to Amarillo currently. The NBM 90th percentile (realistic worse case scenario) shows around 2.5 inches possible in the west through Wednesday morning and much of this would likely occur Sunday through Monday. Given this, WPC includes all but the SE in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Monday and Monday night with a slight risk across the far west. NBM has also been slowly decreasing high temperatures this period and is now indicating near to slightly below normal highs, especially in the west much of the period.

Gittinger

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF cycle. Similar to the last few days, we continue to see gusty southerly winds, with sustained winds around 20-25kts and gusts to 30-35kts. As another low level jet occurs tonight, winds should remain gusty through the night once again. Some haze is occurring across KAMA this evening but it doesn't appear to be causing enough of an obscuration to reduce visibilities so left them out of the TAF.
Showers moving through the western Panhandle this evening may make it to KAMA but confidence in that is also too low to include in the forecast.

Culin

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
OK...None.