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FXUS66 KHNX 040833 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1233 AM PST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Areas of fog should develop in the San Joaquin Valley, north of Kern County Tuesday morning. A warming trend is expected today through Wednesday. Near record warmth is possible in parts of the San Joaquin Valley Wednesday afternoon. A cooling trend is expected Thursday and Friday. By Friday afternoon, high temperatures will be near normal for this time of year.

DISCUSSION
Patchy fog may develop in parts of the San Joaquin Valley this morning. The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast guidance depicts a low probability (around 20 percent) of this fog becoming dense.
Areas of fog should develop in the San Joaquin Valley, north of Kern County Tuesday morning. The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast guidance depicts a high probability (around 80 percent)
of this fog becoming dense. A Dense Fog Advisory may be required.
A warming trend is expected today through Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures will be around fifteen degrees above normal for this time of year. Record warmth is possible in Fresno and Hanford Wednesday afternoon. Near record warmth is conceivable in Bakersfield Wednesday afternoon.

A cold front will pass across Central California Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Precipitation associated with this frontal boundary should remain north of Central California. A trough of low pressure will progress eastward through the Pacific Northwest Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Precipitation associated with this trough of low pressure will remain north of Central California. A ridge of high pressure will amplify over the Eastern Pacific Ocean Friday and Friday night. This ridge of high pressure will move eastward across the Western United States this weekend.

A cooling trend is expected Thursday and Friday. By Friday afternoon, maximum temperatures will be near their typical values for the first half of December. Sub-freezing temperatures are possible in rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley Friday night. A Freeze Watch may be required. Here are probabilities of minimum temperatures of 32 degrees or lower for select locations in the San Joaquin Valley on Saturday, December 9th, 2023:

Madera - 89% Delano - 79% Visalia - 74% Hanford - 74% Merced - 69% Lemoore - 59% Porterville - 54%

AVIATION
MVFR visibilities are likely in parts of the San Joaquin Valley until about 18Z this morning due to mist. VFR conditions will prevail across Central California this afternoon. IFR or lower conditions are possible in portions of the San Joaquin Valley Tuesday morning due to fog.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
On Monday, December 4th, 2023, fireplace/wood stove burning status is: no burning unless registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, and Tulare Counties. Burning discouraged in Merced County, as well as in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low, medium, and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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