NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 255 PM Friday...

The bulk of heavy rainfall has tracked immediately to the south of the forecast area today, first in South Carolina and eventually tracking into southern North Carolina. Sampson County still appears likely to be the area that will have the heaviest rainfall, although additional showers (with no lightning so far) have developed in a broken line extending from the Richmond metro area towards the Triad, and two flood advisories (one in VA, one in NC) have been issued along with this line of showers. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should maximize over the next few hours, with coverage then steadily decreasing through the evening. The HRRR has been the high-resolution model of choice today, and several consecutive runs of the HRRR show a line of showers holding together near the VA/NC line through sunset then diminishing in coverage. Have stuck close to the HRRR guidance, keeping higher pops along the VA/NC line around sunset with decreasing pops after that. The bulk of any remaining showers should be across the southeast after midnight.
While it was already noted that the heaviest showers have remained to the south of the forecast area, feel that it is still prudent to hold onto the flood watch at this time for Cumberland, Hoke, Sampson, Scotland, and Wayne Counties through 7pm. Overnight lows will range from 65 to 70 degrees.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 236 PM Friday...

The front will slide south of our southern areas Saturday, as flow aloft turns nwly. PWAT will drop to 70 - 80% of normal across central NC as dew points across the piedmont mix out into the 60s Saturday afternoon. Some lingering low-level moisture across the far southeast may limit mixing some as dew points may hover near 70 through Saturday afternoon. As such, a few diurnal, isolated showers could be possible in our far southeast locations Saturday afternoon.
However, expect any isolated activity to quickly wane with loss of heating.

High pressure to our north will induce persistent cooler/drier nely flow through Saturday evening. As such, daytime highs will max out in the lower to mid 80s. Overnight, the high will continue to slide down the east coast as drier air knocks dew points down into the 50s. Winds will subside, and given clear skies, good radiational cooling conditions (especially northeast sections) will support overnight lows in the lower 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 210 PM Friday...

Sun/Sun night: The largely dry weekend continues, under a ridge of surface high pressure. Unless Sat ends up dry, Sun has a high potential to be the first totally dry day across our forecast area since July 4th. Central NC will be situated beneath narrow mid level ridging, between a closed low off the Mid Atlantic/Northeast coast and a shortwave trough over IA/MO lifting slowly NE into WI/IL, yielding a dry and subsiding column with little to no CAPE and PWs generally aob 1". Apart from a little morning fog/stratus across the S, expect plenty of sunshine Sun, and largely clear skies Sun night except for a few residual mid/high clouds floating in from late-day convection over the central Appalachians. This insolation should partially offset thicknesses about 15 m below normal, favoring highs in the 80s to near 90. Lows should be in the mid 60s to around 70.

Mon/Mon night: The quiet weather will begin to transition back to more seasonable temps and convection Mon. The surface ridge extending over the area will weaken and push SE, supplanted by developing lee troughing through the Piedmont. Aloft, the closed low off the Northeast coast will pivot and retrograde NW, moving onshore over New England, while the Midwest shortwave trough tracks slowly E over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley, tamping down our weakening narrow ridge and putting us into weak cyclonic mid level flow on the SE edge of the shortwave trough, while PWs near 2" will surge back into central NC from the SW. Expect a return to scattered showers and storms, mainly across the west, during the afternoon through mid evening, with coverage lessening but chances persisting esp over the Piedmont and into our NE overnight, as indicated by LREF precip probabilities. Highs should again be mostly in the 80s with thicknesses holding just a bit below normal as cloud cover increases. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tue-Fri: We'll be back to daily chances for showers and storms, primarily but not restricted to each afternoon and evening. The New England mid level low looks likely to become absorbed into the baggy trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, keeping central NC within a weak cyclonic mid level flow through mid week, while a hot ridge builds over the central CONUS. Expect Tue/Wed pops to be at or above climatology. By Wed night/Thu, there are some model indications that the baggy trough will shift off the E Coast, propelled by a prominent shortwave trough crossing the Upper Midwest and into the N and W Great Lakes region through Fri, although significant model differences in timing of this shortwave emerge. Thus, we could have a period of time beneath brief ridging aloft between the E Coast trough and this incoming trough, or the E Coast trough could linger in place, as the 00z op ECMWF depicts. And this sort of northwest flow regime with mid level speed maxes upstream over the Midwest can often translate to nocturnal MCSs (or their remnants) that can track ESE through VA/NC with reduced predictability, even at shorter ranges. With this falling forecast confidence late in the week, will keep pops Thu/Fri near climatology for now, and temps within a few degrees of normal. -GIH

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 750 PM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: Showers are blossoming near KRWI as an outflow from convection to the north approaches and reduced vsbys and sub- VFR cigs will be possible with it. Cannot rule out lightning, but as of now that has not occurred. There could also be a brief shower at KRDU and possibly KINT in the next few hours. For tonight, while confidence is high sub-VFR cigs will develop, timing could be off an hour or two at some terminals. MVFR/IFR cigs should spread across central NC after midnight, then continue lowering to IFR/LIFR after through about 08Z where they will remain through daybreak Sat. Vsbys should generally be VFR, although brief periods of MVFR are possible. Cigs should return to VFR Sat morn, with sunny to mostly sunny skies expected thereafter.

Outlook: VFR conditions and dry weather are expected through Monday, with chances for showers/storms and sub-VFR conditions increasing Mon night/Tue through Wed.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.