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FXUS62 KRAH 030118 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 920 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Canadian high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic coast will shift offshore through Wednesday. Unseasonably warm temperatures return by July 4th and will persist through the holiday weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 920 PM Tuesday..

Forecast is in good shape with very few changes needed. Surface high pressure centered near NYC at this hour will continue to extend down through our area while drifting slowly eastward. Minor mid level perturbations are seen in layer WV imagery moving SE over our region, but with a very dry column (00z GSO PW near the 10th percentile) and stable mid levels, little more than a few mid clouds will be observed through tonight. Still expect lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s. -GIH

Earlier discussion from 145 PM: As surface high pressure currently centered over the Northeast continues to slowly slide offshore this afternoon, quiet weather will continue across Central NC. Dew points today have been in the 50s across the region, with onshore moisture moving in later this evening dew points will get into the 60s later tonight especially in the eastern portions of the Piedmont and Coastal Plain region. High temperatures will top out this afternoon in the mid 80s with a few areas in the south getting into the upper 80s. Lows overnight will be slightly warmer than last night ranging from low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 PM Tuesday..

Continued dry on Wednesday under the influence of a 1024mb high off the Mid-Atlantic coast and and eastward shifting 595dm sub-tropical at 500mb over the Deep South. As the surface high shifts eastward as well, return flow will begin to kick in, but likely not until late in the day, delaying the return of upper 60s and lower 70 dewpoints until Thursday. 1000-850mb thicknesses rise 15-20m over today's expected values, which will result in highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s, coolest in the northeast away from the thermal.
ridge.

With southerly return flow becoming established Wednesday night, guidance suggests some stratocu across the foothills and drifting into the western Piedmont, with otherwise quiet weather and lows likely to range from the upper 50s east to lower 60s west.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 355 PM Tuesday...

A mid-level anticyclone stretching from the Southern Plains to the Deep South will gradually shift east to off the Southeast US coast from Thursday into early next week as a series of shortwaves moves from the Northern Plains into the Northern Great Lakes and Southeast Canada. While the shortwaves will stay well north of us, increasing southwesterly flow aloft between a mid-level trough that sets up to our west and the ridging to our east will bring in PW values exceeding 2 inches from Thursday through Tuesday. The first shortwave will drag a cold front to its south that reaches the Appalachians by Saturday night, but models depict it washing out before it reaches our area. Even still, the surface flow will become south/southwesterly ahead of the front as high pressure initially just east of NC on Thursday continues to push farther east near Bermuda. This will increase dew points into the upper-60s to lower- 70s on Thursday, then lower-to-mid-70s from this weekend into early next week. With better moisture and instability in place along with a lee surface trough setting up, shower and storm chances will return each afternoon and evening, mainly over the northern and western Piedmont on Thursday then areawide from Friday through Tuesday. The greatest ensemble probabilities for precipitation are in the NW on Friday and Saturday, shifting more to the south and east for the rest of the period. The storms look to be more of the pulse variety given the lack of shear, so widespread severe weather is not expected.

The biggest story during the period will be the temperatures, which are expected to reach the mid-to-upper-90s in most places from Thursday through Saturday. The current forecast comes within 2-3 degrees of the daily records highs at all three climate sites (GSO, RDU and FAY), as seen in the climate section below. Lows won't provide a lot of relief either, only dropping into the mid-to-upper- 70s. Heat indices of 100-105 will be possible on Thursday, and basic heat precautions should still be taken especially given the Independence Day holiday with a lot of people spending time outdoors. But Friday and Saturday look to be the hottest and most humid days of the period, when heat indices of 105-110 are expected from around the Triangle south and east. Heat Advisories will likely be needed on these days. At least a slight moderation is expected from Sunday through Tuesday, but exactly how much we cool down is still uncertain. The raw GFS and ECMWF depict some highs in the 80s, but their ensembles aren't as cool, and would like to see more consistency before lowering forecast temperatures too much.


AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 700 PM Tuesday...

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period. Shallow and patchy fog will be possible in the vicinity of RWI, but direct terminal restrictions are uncertain. Given the model trends and favorable pattern for shallow fog, have introduced TEMPO at RWI for the early morning hours. Light to calm winds tonight will turn southerly (GSO/INT) to easterly (RWI/FAY) by Wed afternoon with greater coverage in diurnal cumulus into the early evening hours.

Outlook: A chance of showers/storms will exist over the wrn NC Piedmont (INT/GSO) Thu afternoon-evening and throughout cntl NC Fri through the weekend.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

July 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 98/2019

July 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 102/1999 KFAY: 101/2002

July 6: KRDU: 102/2022 KFAY: 99/1990

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4: KGSO: 73/2018

July 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/1902 KFAY: 77/2005

July 6: KGSO: 76/1999 KRDU: 79/1900 KFAY: 76/2017

July 7: KGSO: 73/2019 KRDU: 77/1900 KFAY: 78/2017

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:04 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:10 PM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:50 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:57 AM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:32 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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