Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garner, NC

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 910 PM Saturday...

* One more period, in the present stretch, of below average temperatures

A mid/upper-level cyclone over NM will eject into the srn High Plains tonight, while downstream split streams flow across the northern international border and the Gulf Coast, and flank cntl NC.

At the surface, high pressure centered over the Southeast will remain, while a trough will extend across far wrn NC/VA. An associated several millibar MSL pressure gradient over cntl NC will favor light swly stirring, to calm in sheltered/rural areas. A continuation of wide-ranging temperatures that were evident in 02Z surface observations between urban and rural locations (ie. upr 20s at ETC/TTA/VUJ and 42 F at INT) will continue through the night, with lows ranging through the 20s, to around 30 F in urban areas.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING/
As of 245 PM Saturday...

Zonal flow will transition to weak ridging ahead of the system approaching the lower MS valley by Sun evening. Daytime will mostly be sunny, but clouds will start to increase by later in the afternoon and especially evening. The low-level thicknesses will continue to rise, reaching about 1360 m by 20z. Southwest flow will continue to increase as the high shifts offshore. Afternoon gusts will not be overly strong by any means, but gust of 15-20 mph is favored especially over the northern areas of the Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. Highs should be really nice, back to some 10 degrees above average along/west of US-1 with low to mid 60s in the west and low 60s along the Coastal Plain.

After coordination with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued across the Northwest Piedmont from 11 am to 6 pm Sun. Several favors have led to this statement. First, it has been fairly dry. Dewpoints are expected to start out in the lower 20s Sun morning, slowly rising into the 30s by the afternoon. However, guidance is mixed on the mixing out of dewpoints during peak heating, with the MET MOS guidance on the low end with upper 20s near the Triad and HRRR/NBM with low to mid 30s. These dry conditions could support RH levels in the upper 20s into mid- afternoon, before recovering as dewpoints rise later in the afternoon. Normally, an IFD would also require gusts 25 mph or higher, but consultation with NCFS suggests that an uptick in fires is concerning. Therefore, opted to hoist the statement to exercise caution.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 250 PM Saturday...

* Warm temps and unsettled weather Sun night through Wed.
* Greatest chance of rain will be late Tue through Wed aftn, with locally heavy amounts possible.
* Dry weather follows, briefly cooler Thu then seasonable Fri/Sat.

Large-scale pattern: We're looking at 3 main shots of precip potential in central NC -- #1 Sun night-Mon morning, #2 Mon evening- Tue morning, and #3 late Tue afternoon through Wed afternoon.
Today's surface high will have pushed E off the Southeast coast by Sun night/Mon. The mid-upper low now just E of Tucson AZ will lift ENE as a dampened open shortwave, tracking just NW of central NC Mon, concurrent with passage of a 50 kt SW 850 mb jetlet. Broad ridging focused over the S Caribbean will then return briefly across the Southeast states Mon night into early Tue, leaving our flow aloft briefly flat and mostly unperturbed, however sheared shortwave energy (originating in the tail end of the aforementioned Desert SW shortwave trough) will spread NE across SE NC during this time.
Then, an amplified longwave trough digging over central NOAM Tue will shift E through the Great Lakes and ern NOAM through Wed night, with low-predictability embedded shortwaves rotating rapidly through its base and accompanied by a potent surface cold front with multiple lows tracking along it. This front is expected to cross central NC Wed, perhaps stalling for a short bit over W NC as the longwave trough becomes neutral or slightly negatively tilted. The mid level longwave trough axis will likely shift E of our area Wed night/Thu. Surface high pressure (likely more Pacific-source than Arctic) will then build in through Fri, before shifting to our NE by Sat while still ridging back through central NC.

Sensible weather and hazards: Confidence in at least some stratiform rain late Sun night into early Mon with the first wave passage is fairly high, particularly over our NW. But amounts are apt to be low, given that there will still be enough low level ridging across FL/GA to limit the tapping of Gulf moisture flux into our area, and the wave itself will be flattening. Moist isentropic upglide with this feature will be deep (285-310K) but not robust. Will maintain overcast skies clouds and high rain chances, categorical across the NW and N with likely pops elsewhere, focused from midnight Sun night to noon Mon, but with totals under a half inch, and just 0.1" or less over most of the S and E. Some mid-upper level drying will take place behind this wave, most pronounced over the N and W, but with residual decent moisture in the lowest few thsnd feet Mon aftn, will need to hold onto a low chance of rain areawide in the wake of this lead wave. This respite will be brief as we get the next shot of forcing for ascent from weak/sheared shortwave passage and deepening moist upglide, mainly across the S and E, Mon evening through early Tue, necessitating a return to chance to likely pops, higher S and lower N. Again we'll have a very short break in rain chances Tue morning into early-mid afternoon, ahead of the main event. By early Tue evening, strengthening low level SW and SSW flow ahead of the incoming longwave trough, in tandem with embedded shortwaves and jet- streak-induced upper divergence maxima to enhance deep forcing for ascent, will result in a solid area of categorical rain chances Tue evening through Wed. An anticipated series of surface lows along the front, coinciding with upper divergence maxima amidst high/deep moisture with a PW around 275% of normal, will contribute to swaths of heavier rainfall. Our area is covered by a WPC marginal outlook for excessive rainfall during this time frame, reasonable given the high PW and strong kinematics. This potential is also captured by the ECMWF-based Extreme Forecast Index. But the various ensembles including the LREF, NBM, and AIFS have come down slightly on their potential for amounts over 1.5" as compared to yesterday, and likewise the WPC QPF superensemble mean generally peaks at 1.5" across the area during this late Tue through Wed time frame. We have been dry lately, with widespread abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions. But if any convective elements are present (a fairly low chance, given the low probabilities of just a few hundred J/kg of CAPE largely confined to along/east of I-95), with the possibility of bands of moderate showers training over the same areas, we could be looking at isolated flooding threats, esp if it occurs in an urban area. Regarding the storm risk, any CAPE in our E still appears to be small and skinny, and the deep layer shear vector will be parallel to the front, both not terribly conducive to severe weather, but given the intense kinematics and potential for local low level wind backing near a frontal low that would create a more concerning hodograph, we'll need to keep an eye on forecast trends.
Nevertheless, a risk of isolated thunder still appears reasonable, mainly over the east where CAPE should be greater and may become surface-based. Expect shower chances to end W to E late Wed into Wed evening, followed by dry weather Thu/Fri with deep subsidence behind the trough, although periods of high clouds are possible. As the surface high center pushes to our NE, we're apt to see some low level return flow atop the wedging high, resulting in an uptick in clouds Sat and perhaps some patchy light rain.

Temps: Model average of low level thicknesses is about 30-40 m above normal Mon into Wed, so despite some tempering by clouds and prefrontal showers, readings should still be above normal Mon-Wed, with a slightly lower than usual diurnal range. Mon should be the coolest of these three days, as the morning precip and lingering clouds through the day limit heating and lock in surface-based stability. Expect highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s Mon, 60s to around 70 Tue, and mid 50s W to mid-upper 60s E Wed, with a good chance of falling afternoon temps in the W. Highs should drop back into the 40s Thu, with thicknesses falling to 30-40 m below normal, followed by moderation to mid 40s to low 50s Fri. Expect highs Sat mostly in the 50s. -GIH

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 625 PM Saturday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR through the period. A band of high clouds will move through the region this evening, otherwise conditions should be mostly clear over the next 24 hours. Point soundings have slightly backed off the possibility of low-level wind shear at INT/GSO - decided to reduce the speed in the TAFs, but did not have enough confidence to remove it with the 00Z issuance. Winds will generally be out of the southwest between 5-10 kt.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions are forecast to return Mon into Tue in scattered rain and possible fog. Another round of LLWS is favored Mon morning. A strong cold front will bring widespread sub-VFR conditions in showers and possible isolated thunder late Tue into Wed. VFR should return Thu.

FIRE WEATHER
Continued dry conditions will remain on Sunday, especially across the northwest Piedmont. RH levels could dip as low as the upper 20s in the morning and early afternoon before recovering into the middle 30s by late afternoon. Gusts out of the southwest will be between 15 and 20 mph. Along with an uptick in fire activity and with the NCFS, an increased fire danger statement has been issued from 11 am to 7 pm Sunday. Consult your local burn- permitting authority to determine whether you may burn outdoors. If you do burn, exercise extreme caution.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.