Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garner, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 236 PM Monday...

Latest observed rainfall totals show a few streaks of 1 to 2 inches over portions of the southern Piedmont, western Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain. Thus far, any stronger convection that has developed to our south has generally fizzled out with northward extent after encountering more stable air. Looking at satellite imagery this afternoon, however, there have been noticeable breaks across the southern portions of central NC. As such, we are starting to see a bit deeper convection bubble up along our NC/SC border. As we continue into the later afternoon and evening hours, expect this deeper convection to produce a bit better rain rates. The 12Z HRRR LPMM field highlights the potential for higher QPF over the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain and the western to northern Piedmont. Any urban areas in these locations could be susceptible to isolated flash flooding potential through the rest of this evening.
Otherwise, the bulk of moderate to heavy rain should largely lift north into VA late tonight through sunrise Tuesday morning. However, scattered shower chances will remain possible everywhere given the proximity to the closed low and the residual highly anomalous PWAT (150 to 175 % of normal).

We continue to see weak, brief rotation in some of the deeper convective cells. As was mentioned this morning, given there is some marginal effective SRH of ~100 m2s2 forecast, coupled with low LCLs, can't rule out an isolated brief spin-up tornado through especially this afternoon evening.

Otherwise, warm overnight lows in the lower 60s are expected.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 PM Monday...

By Tuesday morning, the upper low will be over eastern Tennessee, and this will drift into southern Ohio over the next 24 hours. The surface pattern will be complex, but an area of moderate to heavy rain should be approaching the eastern counties around sunrise.
Meanwhile, there could be a relative lull in showers across western counties during the morning. A shortwave is expected to rotate across North Carolina Tuesday afternoon, and this will likely trigger another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Once the shortwave moves north over Virginia Tuesday evening, the chance of showers should come down through the nighttime hours.

While skies are going to remain mostly cloudy through the day, models are in a bit of disagreement as to the potential for strong to severe storms during the afternoon. Point soundings from the 12Z NAM show relatively weak shear and minimal instability due to warmer temperatures between 700-925 mb, while point soundings from the 12Z GFS show upward of 1000 J/kg and modest unidirectional shear. The plan view on the 09Z SREF shows the highest probabilities of instability/shear across southeastern counties. The 12Z HRRR also shows some updraft helicity swaths, indicative of rotating storms, primarily to the east of US-1. Although the forecast area is not currently in a SPC convective risk category for Tuesday, cannot rule out some isolated stronger storms.

In addition, the heavier rainfall across the forecast area should shift a little bit farther to the east on Tuesday. The current flood watch for the entire forecast area goes through Tuesday morning, but have made the decision to expand the watch temporally across the east through Tuesday night where the rain rates could be higher with the potential of strong to severe storms.

Tuesday should be a little warmer than today, with highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will generally be in the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 400 PM Monday...

The mid-level cyclone will weaken further and likely turn into an open wave over the OH Valley and Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday as it slowly drifts further north. The attendant trough will move across central NC late Wednesday, with moisture flux on the east side still resulting in PW values around 1.5 inches. At the surface, despite the occluded low and associated fronts moving to our north by this point, and overall modest forcing for ascent, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft from the mid-level trough, decent low-level moisture (surface dew points in the mid-to-upper- 60s), and some breaks of sun could still result in SBCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Did cap POPs in the likely range given the weak large-scale forcing and precipitation being more convective by this point. The mid-level flow will be weak enough that no organized severe threat is expected. Forecast highs are mid-70s to lower-80s.
Drier air from NW flow aloft should really begin to move in on Wednesday night as the mid-level trough finally pushes to our east.
Lows should be in the upper-50s to mid-60s.

Shortwave ridging will then build to our west on Thursday and move overhead on Thursday night, with associated height rises. Model soundings indicate this will bring a decent capping inversion that should limit convective development, but still can't rule out a few isolated showers/storms as good surface heating and continued low- level moisture will result in weak to moderate destabilization once again. For now only have slight to low chance POPs (highest east).
High temperatures will turn above average, in the mid-to-upper-80s.
Lows Thursday night will only drop into the mid-to-upper-60s.

The first part of Friday could be dry as well as we are still under the influence of the shortwave ridging pushing to our east, but by late Friday and Saturday, we will experience some weak mid-level height falls from the next closed low that moves east across the Upper Great Lakes. A surface trough will also be in place across our region. So precipitation chances should increase, and isolated to scattered convection will be possible. Given strong destabilization of 2000-3000+ J/kg of CAPE shown on both the ECMWF and GFS, along with 40-50 kts of bulk shear, strong to severe storms will be possible. Temperatures will also be a concern, with highs in the upper-80s to mid-90s on Friday and Saturday. Dew points will rise to the upper-60s and possibly lower-70s both days, so heat indices will be a concern, especially on Friday when they are forecast to reach the mid-90s to 100 from the Triangle to the south and east.

A cold front looks to move through the region on Saturday night, though there is still some uncertainty on its timing and placement.
Looking aloft, the flow will turn more northwesterly as the mid- level cyclone pushes farther east and ridging builds over the Central US. For now expect a drying trend with only slight chance POPs on Sunday and Monday. The best chance of any convection would be in the south depending on where the front gets hung up. Forecast highs decrease closer to normal both days.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 741 PM Monday...

MVFR to IFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours as additional rounds of showers, locally heavy moves across central NC.
Brief drops to LIFR will be possible at any terminal with any heavier downpour. As we pivot to the overnight period, expect ceilings to generally trend to the IFR/LIFR range as additional showers/isolated storms move across the area.

A brief lift to MVFR appears likely Tuesday afternoon (with KFAY possibly going VFR early Tuesday afternoon). However, additional showers and storms will be possible through Wednesday morning (highest chances for storms would be at KFAY/KRWI and maybe KRDU from late Tuesday morning through the evening hours).

After 00Z Wednesday: Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will continue Wednesday through late week. Early morning stratus and/or fog (IFR to LIFR) will be likely.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NCZ007>011-024>028- 041>043-078-089.
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NCZ021>023-038>040- 073>077-083>086-088.