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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Norman of Catawba, NC

July 21, 2024 3:50 AM EDT (07:50 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM
Moonrise 8:19 PM   Moonset 5:16 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Norman of Catawba, NC
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Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 210716 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 316 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
A nearly stationary front will meander across our region through next week providing a focus for above-normal chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near normal or just a bit cooler than normal.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 315 AM: Isolated to scattered showers will linger through daybreak, along with low clouds and patchy fog.

The stagnant weather pattern remains in place across the area with southwesterly flow aloft between a central CONUS trough and the sub- tropical Atlantic ridge. Short wave energy moves through the flow and across the area again today. Weak upper divergence returns as well. The high PW air mass remains in place as well as the weak frontal boundary moves north of the area. Low level flow turns more southerly this afternoon, with an increase in instability compared to Saturday. Shear remains weak, so severe storm potential remains low. However, the flood threat has increased as CAM guidance shows the potential for storms with high rainfall rates and lower FFG values given the series of storms the past few days. Hard to pinpoint a single area where flooding is more likely as that will come down to mesoscale features, like what occurred Saturday evening. Expect the convection to continue into the evening with scattered showers lingering overnight. Highs will be closer to normal than the past few days, with lows near to slightly above normal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 219 AM Sunday: The 00z suite of global model guidance and their respective ensembles remain in good agreement that the synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged as we kick off a new week. This will feature stout upper ridging extending from the Great Basin into the Canadian Rockies with broad downstream troughing draped from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. A strong Bermuda ridge will be situated offshore over the Atlantic which will continue to promote a period of deep-layer southwest flow across the southeast states. A plume of 1.5-2" PWATs is progged to be entrenched across the region with very moist profiles observed on area forecast soundings. These profiles also feature high freezing levels and near moist adiabatic lapse rates. Thus, a continuation of above normal PoPs is reasonable both Monday and Tuesday with categorical over the mountains and likely elsewhere. This will be realized in the form of numerous diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms with a good bit of activity festering into the evenings. Poor thermodynamic parameters and tall/skinny CAPE profiles will preclude a threat for severe weather, but an isolated water loaded microburst cannot be completely discounted. The main focus, however, will be the potential for flash flooding, especially with any training convection. Multiple rounds of convection over the last several days has made antecedent conditions a bit more concerning with flash flood guidance trending lower.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 233 AM Sunday: An active stretch of weather will continue mid week into next weekend with a persistent synoptic pattern. By Wednesday morning, little will have changed in regards to the key synoptic features driving a prolonged stretch of moist southwest flow across the southeast states. The pattern eventually becomes more amplified heading into Thursday as a potent trough swings across the Pacific Northwest with a well defined downstream trough dropping across the Great Lakes. An increasing height gradient between the Great Lakes trough and offshore Bermuda ridge will increase flow through the column and help to boost moisture transport/IVT into the area. This will lead to an uptick in PoPs Wednesday and Thursday, especially as large scale height falls graze the area. This may also result in a more focused period where flash flooding could become a concern. Global guidance has consistently depicted higher QPF values during this time, but any focused flooding threat will likely be driven more on the mesoscale by features that aren't resolvable at this time range. Guidance begins to diverge by late week into next weekend as a frontal boundary attempts to approach the area from the north. Southward progress remains uncertain with the parent trough lifting away from the area and leaving the front behind within a boundary parallel flow regime.
As such, some members of guidance try to bring the front into the area along with drier air while other members keep the front stalled to the north and above normal rain chances continuing. Will keep the forecast in line with the latest national model blend for now until guidance comes into better agreement on the evolution of the synoptic pattern and frontal features.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Scattered SHRA will continue to lift north across the area early this morning before mostly dissipating by daybreak. The bigger story is the expected increase in MVFR then IFR stratus. LIFR stratus also possible. Vsby restrictions are more muted with mainly VFR to MVFR. However, KAVL may see IFR to LIFR vsby, with IFR possible elsewhere. Any vsby restrictions should quickly dissipate after daybreak, but cigs will slowly lift to MVFR then low VFR around noon. Expect scattered convection again this afternoon and evening, but timing and coverage somewhat uncertain, so kept as PROB30 for now. SHRA could linger overnight, but expect cigs to once again drop into the MVFR to IFR range, with patchy vsby restrictions. Light SW wind this morning, NNW at KAVL, picks up speed by afternoon, becoming SSW at KAVL. Light wind this evening.

Outlook: Expect sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms each aftn/ evening thru the middle the week. Morning fog/low stratus will be possible each day, especially in the mtn valleys and across areas that received heavy rainfall the previous day.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSVH STATESVILLE RGNL,NC 12 sm25 mincalm5 smClear Mist 70°F70°F100%30.10
KIPJ LINCOLNTONLINCOLN COUNTY RGNL,NC 13 sm25 mincalm10 smOvercast72°F70°F94%30.09
KJQF CONCORDPADGETT RGNL,NC 20 sm25 mincalm10 smMostly Cloudy70°F70°F100%30.11


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Greer, SC,




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