Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Norman of Catawba, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 130 PM, key messages:

1. Excepting the stratocu over the Smoky Mts and vicinity, clear across the area thru most of tonight with light winds and temperatures a little above daily normals.

2. An area of low stratus looks to develop in the upper Savannah Valley just before daybreak and could last until late morning, and some patchy fog is possible just south of the Blue Ridge Escarpment.

3. Isolated, garden variety showers/storms are possible Tue aftn in the mountains near the TN border.

Subtle changes in the synoptic scale pattern occur over the near term to bring sensible weather more typical for the warm season. Sfc high pressure will drift off the VA/NC coast as upper ridge axis pivots across the Carolinas/GA. Relatively dry dewpoints will be maintained over the eastern half of our CWA this afternoon, with better sfc moisture over the mountains of SW NC allowing the cumulus to develop. Subsidence is likely to limit any deep convection in that area today, however. Low level flow has already turned SE and will veer more southerly tonight in response to the migrating high. The associated moisture flux from the Atlantic suggests low stratus will develop in the Savannah Valley and via slight upslope in the GSP area and in the southern NC foothills. These may take most of the morning to dissipate. A few diurnal cumulus may pop out around the CWA with dewpoints generally being in the 50s. Temps will rise 3-5 degrees warmer than Monday, reaching the lower 80s in most of the Piedmont. With the upper ridge axis being east of the Appalachians, less subsidence is seen there and a few showers/storms could pop out over the mountains, mainly near the TN border; activity could also propagate from TN on weak westerly steering flow late in the afternoon. PoPs of up to about 20% are forecast in the border area.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 225 AM Monday: Ridge strengthens again Wednesday as the northern wave moves east and a southern stream wave moves into the mid MS valley. Approaching cold front stalls to our north on Wednesday as a surface low moves into the Midwest. Moisture and instability increase, mainly along and north of the I-85 corridor as the southerly flow continues ahead of the stalled front. Mainly scattered, with better coverage possible along the TN border, diurnal convection develops once again. Right now, instability and shear look relatively weak limiting the severe and heavy rain potential. Highs rise to around 10 degrees above normal Wednesday. Lows follow a similar trend but a little more above normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 245 AM Monday: The upper ridge moves east Thursday as the Midwest short wave moves east. A stronger northern stream short wave dives into the OH Valley Friday and across the area Friday night.
Moisture and instability increase again Thursday in the southerly flow ahead of a cold front associated with the second short wave.
Expect scattered mainly diurnal convection along and north of the I- 85 corridor once again. Numerous to good chance of convection develops Friday as the cold front crosses the area. Instability and shear could increase enough for a low end severe chance, but that's uncertain at this time. Temps remain around 10 degrees above normal.

Dry high pressure and an upper ridge build in behind the front for Saturday and Sunday. Temps will be near normal both days.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Generally SKC this afternoon and most of tonight. Winds will tend to be SE'ly, although periods of VRB are already being reported; all sites potentially will see VRB overnight. Near-sfc flow will remain SE tonight with fetch off the Atlantic, and numerous sources suggest some stratus will develop over western Upstate SC and far NE GA, up to around the border of NC. An MVFR cig looks likely at KGSP/KGMU but not as confident on cigs at KAND, so kept them VFR. Winds favor S to SW on Tue. A few afternoon SHRA/TSRA are possible over the mountains W/NW of KAVL Tue aftn but otherwise no precip expected near any TAF sites thru Tue evening.

Outlook: Mostly VFR thru Wed, although early morning stratus may be able to develop again Wed. Aftn/evening SHRA/TSRA possible again Wed over the NC mountains. More unsettled weather possible in the second half of the week as frontal system approaches the region.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.