SHORT TERM
(Today and Thursday)
Issued at 1252 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The next system is currently moving in, made noticeable by the influx of higher cloud cover through the evening. As of about midnight, the surface low was located just off the coast of Oregon. The low will move southward through this morning, bringing light rain chances to the Bay Area by mid-to-late morning. There is a slight chance (~15%) of thunder during this time period, mainly in the North Bay. As the low moves through, moisture wrapping around the back side will affect areas south of the Bay Area, including the Central Coast, by the middle of Thursday morning. There is also a slight chance of thunder here during this time. Though a small chance, there could be some terrain enhancement over the Santa Lucia, resulting in isolated, brief heavier rain than what will be seen elsewhere. Shower activity ends gradually Thursday evening as the low moves inland.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1252 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A warming trend will kick off Friday into the weekend as the upper low exits and confidence grows in an a broad upper level ridge situated off the west coast. Temperatures through the weekend are expected to be near seasonal normals. Warming continues into early next week where we will begin to see slightly above normal temperatures.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Mid-level clouds as well as IFR and MVFR CIGs build through the night last into the mid to late morning with light rain expected in the mid to late morning. Pockets of drizzle and mist will affect the coast as well as the Bays and STS in the late night ahead of the rain chances and lingering slightly after. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning. Widespread VFR returns for the TAF sites into Wednesday afternoon, but status lingers on the immediate coast. Expect moderate winds to build into the afternoon and linger into the evening. Coastal cloud cover moves slightly early Tuesday evening, affecting both bays with IFR and MVFR CIGS becoming widespread later that night.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGs build into the late night and last into the late morning with some shower activity in the mid morning.
Expect light to moderate winds overnight. CIGs erode as winds build in the early afternoon. Winds will reduce slightly into Tuesday evening and MVFR CIGs return in the late evening and early night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR CIGs with mist and drizzle ahead of light scattered showers in the mid morning. CIGs scatter and winds become more moderate into Wednesday afternoon. MVFR CIGs return early Wednesday evening as winds reduce.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1122 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Northwesterly breezes will be gentle to moderate, increasing to become moderate to fresh over the outer waters by Thursday. Seas will be moderate, building to become rough in the outer waters by Thursday. There's up to a 15% chance for thunderstorms tomorrow which could produce lightning, locally heavy rainfall, locally gusty winds, and small hail.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.