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PZZ830 Pigeon Point To Point Piedras Blancas Between 60 Nm And 150 Nm Offshore- 848 Pm Pdt Fri Sep 22 2023
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Sat..N to nw winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun..W to sw winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S to sw 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun night..S to sw winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W to nw 5 to 10 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
Tue..N to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
Tue night..N to nw winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
Wed..N to nw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 11 ft.
Wed night..N to nw winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 9 ft.

PZZ800 Cape Flattery To Cape Shoalwater Between 60 Nm And 150 Nm Offshore- 848 Pm Pdt Fri Sep 22 2023
.gale force winds possible Sun night...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
Sat..W to sw winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Scattered showers.
Sat night..S to sw winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming S 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
Sun..S to se winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 30 to 40 kt, becoming S 25 to 35 kt. Seas building to 9 to 16 ft.
Mon..S winds 20 to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
Mon night..S winds 30 to 35 kt, diminishing to 25 to 30 kt. Seas building to 14 to 24 ft.
Tue..S to sw winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
Tue night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
Wed..W to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

FXUS66 KMTR 230645 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1145 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Cool pattern persists through the weekend with onshore flow.
Potent low pressure system moves into the region this weekend, clearing out smoke and bringing rain chances next week.

UPDATE
Issued at 854 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

An upper low spinning offshore about 100-200 miles from Pt Conception is drawing in moisture into Southern California.
Southern portion of the forecast area (Monterey and San Benito Counties) is seeing some high clouds move in from the south as a result. Some light radar echoes are being observed near Pt Conception moving N/NE. There is a very small chance chance that showers skirt across S Monterey Co as upper low weakens and treks east. An update to the forecast was made so now 15% PoPs were added for S Monterey Co overnight tonight. If any showers do move across, likely will not result in any measurable precip. No instability in the atmosphere either, so not worried about thunder chances. Meanwhile on satellite, coastal stratus is expanding and moving inland near the coast.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Pleasant temperatures today and Saturday with mostly clear skies.
Some lingering stratus near coastal areas. Onshore flow has returned with a deep marine layer across the region. Overnight RH recoveries into the 85-100% range pretty much area-wide this morning. Expect wildfire smoke to hang around today with some lingering into Saturday, especially where trapped in narrow mountain valleys.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

By Saturday night into Sunday, winds increase and begin to push smoke inland with the approach of a potent early-season upper low.
Ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the relative track of the low through Tuesday, which brings the surface trough into the Bay Area and not much further. Rain chances begin to increase late Sunday night in Northern Napa and Sonoma counties, spreading southward to the rest of the Bay Area by late Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, the surface trough looks to be rather diffuse across the South Bay as the surface low remains in the Pacific NW. Locations south of the Golden Gate, and especially south of the Bay, may only see breezy afternoon winds and cloudy skies on Monday with little-to-no rain at all. Current storm total amounts range from 0.25-0.5" for far northern Napa/Sonoma, 0.1-0.25" for the rest of the North Bay, and <0.1 for the rest of the SF Bay Area. Generally lesser amounts as you go inland and south. The probabilities for locations to see at least 0.1" are slight to moderate...20-40% for the SF Bay Area, and 40-75% for the North Bay, higher probabilities as you go northward.

Beyond Tuesday, guidance diverges a bit with possible solutions.
As the upper low remains off the west coast of Canada, there is a small chance (~10% at the moment) that an embedded shortwave trough moves through the periphery of the parent trough and brings another quick shot of light rain to the North Bay. At this point this is a low confidence scenario. Otherwise, expect pleasant conditions to persist through next week with daytime temperatures at or just below seasonal normals.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Currently VFR across the region, lasting through the mid morning hours for most terminals. Towards the mid morning hours, MVFR ceilings develop as stratus pushes inland. There is some uncertainty in the development of MVFR ceilings tonight with the approaching low pressure system, though at this time, have included MVFR in the TAFs. The one exception to MVFR ceiling development is KSTS who may see IFR/LIFR ceilings develop as a result of fog. Towards 17/18Z, VFR conditions return once again as stratus mixes out, and last through the remainder of the TAF period for most terminals. Expect light winds overnight tonight, then increasing to become breezy and onshore into the mid afternoon hours of Saturday.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR conditions continue through to the early morning hours of Saturday, with stratus slowly building in overnight, becoming MVFR towards 12/13Z. Clearing to VFR expected towards the late morning hours and lasting through the late evening.
Winds generally light overnight tonight around 6 knots, increasing to around 16 knots out of the W in the late afternoon Saturday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Nighttime satellite shows coastal stratus building in, alongside mid to upper level clouds. MVFR CIGS expected through the late morning hours of Saturday, then clearing to VFR and lasting through the early evening. Winds light and variable in the overnight hours of Friday into Saturday, then increasing to become breezy around 10-12 knots and westerly in the afternoon of Saturday.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 854 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Moderate N to NW winds will gradually decrease to gentle through the weekend. An approaching cold front will cause the winds to shift and strengthen into a fresh southerly breeze by late Sun.
Winds will be strongest in the NW waters, and small craft advisory was issued from Point Arena to Point Reyes beyond 10 nm from the coast between 9pm Sun to 3pm Mon. While winds will likely remain below advisory criteria farther south, rough seas in a NW swell may still trigger more small craft advisories for Mon-Tue.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ570.

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