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FXUS62 KRAH 280855 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 354 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cold high pressure will build from the central and southern United States eastward over the Carolinas and Southeast states through Wednesday. High pressure will move offshore Thursday, ahead of a frontal system approaching the region Friday.

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

A strong shortwave trough digging SE across the OH valley and Mid- Atlantic will shift offshore of the NE US tonight. Behind it, a WNW flow will persist across the area, although ridging will start to slide east into the central Plains. At the surface, a surge of Arctic air currently over the Midwest and Great Lakes will move into our area tonight and into early Wed as a 1030 mb high over the Mid- Mississippi Valley moves into the TN valley and southern Appalachians. A tight pressure gradient will be in place, and with the CAA and winds aloft, WNW winds will increase later this morning and afternoon of 10-20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph. Deep mixing and downslope drying off the Appalachians will support dewpoints crashing into the single digits to middle teens later this afternoon. This will favor a very dry atmosphere with RH values in the 20-25 percent range. Thus, have continued the increased fire danger across the western Piedmont and Sandhills. Highs will be some 8-14 degrees below normal in the middle 40s to low 50s NW to SE.

Tonight, as the surface high slides over us, winds will become calm.
A few high clouds may stream in from the NW but otherwise optimal radiational cooling should be in place for near-record lows (see climate section) in the middle teens to lower 20s. We favored the colder guidance given the anomalously cold airmass. Some outlying areas could even dip into the lower teens as the NBM shows a 70- percent probability of less than 10 deg F over portions of Randolph, Chatham, and Moore counties.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

High pressure over the Carolinas will weaken. Meanwhile, a parent high over the deep south will move toward the SE US during the day/night. This should favor a return southwest flow with low-level thicknesses warming. However, the slow retreat of the cold airmass will again mean well below normal highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Generally light winds will be in place Wed night with mostly clear skies. Lows will remain on the cold side in the low to mid/upper 20s. Some high clouds will approach overnight as a shortwave moves into the central/southern US.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure across the Carolinas Thu morning will build east throughout the day as a weak ridge aloft pushes east across the region. The warming trend from Wed's cold weather will begin as warm air advection and higher heights occur across the area, with highs in the mid to upper 50s across most areas. High clouds will begin to stream across the region late in the day as the next system approaches NC. Overnight lows will also return to the 30s.

An upper trough will then lift from the central Plains Thu night across the Mid-Atlantic Friday. At the surface, low pressure will move from the TN Valley to across the Mid-Atlantic, with a warm front lifting across central NC Friday and a cold front following behind early Saturday. These features will generate the next chance of rain across our area, likely beginning early Friday and slowly ending from NW to SE early Saturday. Isentropic ascent will provide light rain across most areas, with small accumulations of one- quarter inch or less. Highs will increase to the mid-60s SE Friday, with areas across the NW remaining in the mid-50s.

Rain chances may linger across the southern half of the area Saturday as a weak upper wave moves across NC/SC and the cold front stalls across SC. Rain chances then increase again late Saturday into Sunday as the stalled front lifts north across the region and a few more embedded waves aloft traverse the region in the southwesterly flow. Precipitation amounts should be on the rise as moisture increases along the column. Highs increase slightly for the weekend with most areas in the 60s and isolated upper 50s near the VA border.

Confidence in the forecast then decreases late Sunday into Monday as a deeper low and stronger upper trough move east towards the region, along with a cold front. Models and their ensembles are struggling with the details, however our wet pattern does look to continue into early next week. From Friday through next Monday, rainfall totals could be as high a few inches, especially near the NC/SC border.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1215 AM Tuesday...

There is high confidence in VFR through the 24-hour TAF period. West winds will become WNW Tue afternoon between 12 and 15 kt, gusting at times to 25-30 kt. Winds will diminish Tue night as high pressure settles in from the west.

Looking beyond 06z Wed: VFR conditions will dominate through much of the week. A storm system will move in from the southwest late in the week, bringing a good chance of sub-VFR conditions and areas of rain over much of the area from Fri morning through Sat. Low level wind shear may occur as well during this time, especially Fri.

CLIMATE
Record low minimum temperatures for Wed 11/29

GSO: 16 (1955)
RDU: 18 (1955)
FAY: 20 (1956)

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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