Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moncure, NC

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moncure, NC

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Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 081833 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 231 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cool high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes will extend into our region as it shifts into the Carolinas by Saturday. A storm system and warm front will approach late Sunday, then move through the region Sunday night and Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 209 PM Thursday...

The skies have become sunny to mostly sunny across our region this afternoon as we are in the rear of the departing disturbance aloft over SE VA. High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest and continue to bring mainly clear skies tonight. NW winds 10-15 mph will become less than 5 mph. Very dry air and light winds will lead to lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 209 PM Thursday...

High pressure will dominate the region with a gradual warming trend.
Highs on Friday with sunny to mostly sunny skies will edge closer to the normals. Expect highs in the 79-84 range. There may still be some haze and poor air quality due to the advection of smoke from Canada. Skies will be clear Friday night with lows about 2-3 degrees warmer than tonight. Expect mostly lower to mid 50s with light wind.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 231 PM Thursday...

Upper pattern through the extended: Weak upper ridging will build in from the west on Saturday promoting one more day of nwly flow aloft.
A southern stream short wave will then combine with an anomalous upper low over the Midwest to promote unsettled weather late Sunday through middle of next week.

Saturday: Under nwly flow aloft, sfc high pressure will ease into central NC Saturday promoting dry and sunny conditions (PWAT drops to ~50% below normal). A bit warmer temps in the mid to upper 80s are expected on Saturday. Overnight lows will hover in the lower 60s Saturday night.

Sunday through Thursday: The aforementioned sfc high will move offshore overnight into Sunday morning turning sfc flow esely.
Aloft, zonal flow early on will turn more swly as the short wave ejects into the deep south. Guidance has come into better agreement wrt to the arrival of rain associated with this system. Sunday morning continues to trend drier, but we should see POPs start to increase some across the west by Sunday afternoon/evening as light/scattered rain develops within an increasingly WAA regime.

Monday still appears to be the wettest day in the extended as anomalous low-level moisture (PWAT of 1.75 to 2 in; ~120 % of normal) surges across central NC. Ongoing WAA-driven rain (with embedded showers) should increase from west to east starting early Monday morning. Coverage and intensity could then increase as models are still depicting the arrival of ~500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and increasing divergence aloft Monday afternoon. If this materializes, then enhanced rainfall rates and embedded storms appear possible. However, bulk-shear still appears limited at this time (~25 kts), and thus, not expecting much in terms of severe weather at this point. An associated weak cool front will clear the bulk of the rain from west to east through Tuesday morning. However, rain chances will stick around Tuesday afternoon as the upper low and associated energy squeezes through the Mid-Atlantic. After a relative lull on Wednesday (ensemble probabilities for measurable rain are quite low), another short-wave trough may bring additional rain chances on Thursday.

Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s through Thursday, with warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 130 PM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions are expected today and tonight 18z/Fri. Some MVFR VSBYS with haze/smoke are possible, but confidence was low. The best chance should be late this afternoon and early evening.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected for Friday into early Sunday. The next weather system will bring a risk of showers and possibly thunderstorms late Sunday and Monday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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