Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moncure, NC

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 140 AM Friday...

Quiet weather and a nearly cloudless sky will continue. The strongest mid level westerlies will hold to our N, across the N CONUS and S Canada across New England, including a potent shortwave trough that will cross Manitoba/Ontario today and Quebec/New England tonight. Weak flow will prevail over the rest of the CONUS, including a weak mid level low over the S Gulf States, keeping NC in a dry and light NW steering flow. At the surface, meanwhile, a cool surface high centered over S OH will continue to build through the central Appalachians and pour S through central NC through tonight.
The very dry air in place and upstream (PW < 0.4") plus weak surface flow as the high settles over the Carolinas will translate into few to no clouds today and light surface winds. While morning thicknesses are projected to be around 20 m below normal, the quickly modifying air mass should result in temps today that are comparable or very slightly above Thursday's highs, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Clear and calm conditions tonight will foster good radiational cooling, favoring lows from around 40 to the mid 40s, with a few upper 30s in the typically colder spots. -GIH

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 AM Friday...

The dry and quiet weather is likely to continue into the weekend, with warming temps. The surface high centered over the W Carolinas will drift southward and expand W-E across the S Gulf States and over and off the coast of the Southeast states, resulting in a a light SW surface wind over NC as a weak lee trough forms over the W Piedmont. But there will still be no opportunity for moisture return given that the ridge to our S will cut off the Gulf and Atlantic, plus the persistence of dry-source NW flow aloft. As a result, skies will remain clear to mostly clear. Low level thicknesses are expected to have risen to near or just above normal Sat morning, and given high daytime insolation, temps should peak above normal, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80. Expect a milder night Sat night, with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. -GIH


LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 205 PM Thursday...

Saturday upper level ridge building over the Southwest US will help a couple short wave troughs stay to the north, keeping central NC dry. By Monday, an upper level low north of the Great Lakes region will swing across the north east with the southern portions of the trough dipping as far south into the southern MS valley region Monday and even into Tuesday. While the low upper low will exit the Northeast a deepening trough will move over the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Newest model runs show an upper level low developing over the southern Appalachian Mtns then moving NE bringing ample upper level moisture across Central NC mid to late week next week.

At the surface, a frontal boundary extended from Maine down through the OH valley will shift eastward as weak high pressure slowly shifts off the Mid-Atlantic Coast over the weekend. By Monday, low pressure centered over New England will trail down a cold front across much of the Mid-Atlantic region Monday with a Canadian high pressure filtering in behind. The strong Canadian high will slowly shift southeast over the next few days bringing cooler and drier air to Central NC. As the frontal boundary moves across the region there is a low end slight chance of a few showers possible especially along and east of the US1 corridor. Latest model guidance is showing increasing chance of precip, but with it being the first run showing it, have low confidence for Monday forecast for now.

Temperatures will be somewhat a roller coaster during the long term with highs in warming up over the weekend in the mid/upper 70s with a few areas reaching 80 degrees. After the cold front swings through the area sometime late Monday or early Tuesday expect temps to drop near or below normal with highs ranging in the low 70s north to upper 70s south. Thereafter Highs will be in the low to mid 60s for rest of the period. Low temps over the long term will start off in the upper 40s to low 60s over the weekend then cooling down to the low and mid 40s early to mid week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 125 AM Friday...

VFR conditions will hold, with high confidence, across central NC today through tonight, as high pressure drifts overhead. Any clouds will be few and far between, with no vsby restrictions expected. The only potential concern is for borderline low level wind shear at FAY early this morning, a result of winds aloft (at 1200-1500 ft AGL)
from the NE at around 25-30 kts until 12z. Surface winds will remain light at all sites, under 8 kts, mainly from the N or NE this morning, then variable in direction later today through tonight.

Looking beyond 06z Sat, an increase in clouds is expected Mon into Tue with an incoming cold front and upper level disturbance, however VFR conditions are likely to persist through Tue, with very low chances for any rain. -GIH

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.