Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moncure, NC

KEY MESSAGES
As of 110 PM Friday...

1) A severe weather threat will remain through the afternoon for the eastern half of the forecast area.

2) After today, the weather will turn dry again for several days.
Temperatures will be below normal this weekend, warming up to above normal for next week.

DISCUSSION
As of 110 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A severe weather threat will remain through the afternoon for the eastern half of the forecast area.

The Storm Prediction Center has taken a small area in eastern North Carolina and upgraded the severe weather potential from a marginal (level 1 of 5) to a slight (level 2 of 5) risk, primarily along and to the east of I-95. This is primarily for an increased threat of damaging winds, although large hail or an isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out. However, the window for severe weather in the Raleigh forecast area is closing, as current radar trends suggest that thunderstorms should move east of the forecast area between 3 and 5pm.

KEY MESSAGE 2... After today, the weather will turn dry again for several days. Temperatures will be below normal this weekend, warming up to above normal for next week.

High pressure will be dominating the weather for the next several days across the southeastern United States. With very little moisture, skies should be mostly clear for multiple days. While highs will be in the low to mid 60s on Saturday and Sunday, highs will rise into the upper 60s and 70s for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The coldest night will be Saturday night, with temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to the mid 40s, and some frost has been added to the weather grids for early Sunday morning. The wind should be light, but not calm, and there should also be some passing high clouds that night, both of which would help to reduce the chance of additional radiational cooling. Later shifts will have the opportunity to evaluate whether a frost advisory needs to be issued.

There is a bit of uncertainty as to what will go on with the pattern for the end of next week. The current forecast brings in a slight chance of rain Thursday night and Friday, but models differ as to how large of a storm system may develop along the Atlantic coastline. This part of the forecast is likely to change.



AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 630 PM Friday...

Most of central NC has returned to VFR following today's rain and the accompanying restrictions. Over the next several hours, there may be patchy dense fog in the east. The most likely TAF site for any restrictions remains RWI, however guidance still seems to be backing off on this. With IFR ceilings currently in the northeast, kept a TEMPO for a few hours of restrictions at RWI. Additionally, a few hours of gusts may be possible in the morning into the afternoon, with the best chance in the Triad. Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF outlook period. A couple reinforcing cold fronts will bring wind shifts and perhaps some gusty winds Tuesday night into Wednesday.



RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.