Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moncure, NC
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 3:08 AM Moonset 6:24 PM |
Marine Forecasts
NOTE: Zones updated 4/16/2026. Some zones changed. Use Edit if needed.
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moncure, NC
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS62 KRAH 131016 AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 616 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Aviation discussion has been updated to reflect the 12z TAFs.
* A Heat Advisory was issued for a portion of the southern and eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain from 11 AM until 8 PM.
* Probability of strong to severe thunderstorms increased across the area for Sunday, with the greatest risk from the Triangle north and east.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 300 AM Saturday...
1) Prolonged anomalous heat with minimal overnight relief continues through the weekend. A Heat Advisory was issued for the Sandhills and portions of the southern and eastern Piedmont as well as a portion of the Coastal Plain.
2) Diurnal showers and storms will be possible each day through the period. Sunday looks to have greater coverage, and some storms could be strong to severe. Coverage will be less from Monday through Wednesday before increasing again late next week.
DISCUSSION
As of 300 AM Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Prolonged anomalous heat with minimal overnight relief continues through the weekend. A Heat Advisory was issued for the Sandhills and portions of the southern and eastern Piedmont as well as a portion of the Coastal Plain.
A weak front with minimal drying and negligible cooling will settle across the NC coast into central SC later this morning.
In its wake, a continued anomalously hot air mass will remain in place, especially across the Sandhills, southern Piedmont into the southern/central Coastal Plain. Although heat indices will be lower today as some drier surface dew points are expected with diurnal heating, continued unseasonably hot temperatures and compounding effects of several days of intense heat and minimal overnight relief, heat related illnesses will remain possible if precautions are not taken.
An impact-based Heat Advisory has been issued for the southern Coastal Plain, Sandhills, southern Piedmont up into the Triangle from 11 AM until 8 PM. The combination of Major to Extreme HeatRisk, High Threat Levels of WBGT (>86), and heat indices of +102 after several days of anomalous heat, is a favorable overlap to still see potential societal impacts from heat related illness, especially with increased activity outside over the weekend. Convection developing along the Carolina coast this afternoon and outflow racing northward may limit the window for dangerous heat for the southern Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills.
A shortwave pivoting across the Great Lakes, and convectively induced disturbance shifting through the TN Valley on Sun will return deep southwesterly flow and +20C 850mb temperatures across a majority of central NC on Sunday. This will bubble back northward the widespread anomalous temperatures and dew points in the 70s and result in 100 to 110 degree heat indices, greatest in along and east of the US-1 corridor where a pool of higher humidity will be positioned. Consequently, HeatRisk is highlighting Major to Extreme once again, indicating that not only is this heat particularly unusual, it is correlated with high levels of heat illnesses as noted by historical CDC heat- health data, and this heat could produce significant health impacts on all populations, especially those without adequate hydration and cooling.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Diurnal showers and storms will be possible each day through the period. Sunday looks to have greater coverage, and some storms could be strong to severe. Coverage will be less from Monday through Wednesday before increasing again late next week.
A shortwave will move across the TN Valley into VA and the Delmarva on Sunday and Sunday night. At the surface, a trough will strengthen and extend into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front that moves through central NC on Sunday night. Ahead of the cold front, SW flow will increase, bringing in plenty of warm moist air with dew points in the upper-60s to lower-70s and PW values of 2 to 2.5 inches (125 to 150% of normal). Thus instability should be plentiful, with SBCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg possible, especially east. While the strongest forcing from the shortwave will be to our north, we will still get a glancing blow with weak mid-level height falls. CAMS vary significantly on the extent of shower and storm development, but this will hopefully become clearer as we get closer. Regardless expect coverage to be higher than previous days due to the added forcing from the wave, and POPs are mostly in the high chance to likely range.
The strongest mid-level flow will also be to our north on Sunday, but 30-40 kts is still depicted in the models, along with 20-30 kts in the lower levels. So while shear isn't overly impressive, it could be adequate for some severe storms in the afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being the main threat. The greatest chance looks to be in our NE Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain which will have the best combination of instability, forcing and shear. SPC now has a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across our entire region, with a slight (level 2 of 5) risk from the Triangle north and east. Even outside of any storms, SW winds may gust to 20-30 mph at times.
Behind Sunday night's cold frontal passage, drier air will filter into the region early next week. The front looks to get hung up near the coast, resulting in a chance of more typical isolated showers and storms across mainly our south and east each day from Monday through Wednesday. There may be an uptick in precipitation chances on Monday night and early Tuesday as a surface low tracks to our south and east, but it would be when instability is at a minimum. Convection chances will increase again late Thursday and especially Friday as we heat back up and the next cold front approaches from the NW.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 610 AM Saturday...
While isolated air mass thunderstorms could be possible anywhere, least likely at the Triad terminals, greater confidence exists along the seabreeze/outflow driven storms across the Coastal Plain, that should migrate northwest with time; FAY and RWI will have the best chance to see restrictions, lightning, and gusty winds as early as 19z, but most likely between 21-02z.
Outlook: Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will remain possible at all terminals through the forecast period.
Overnight into early morning sub-VFR cigs and mist can't be ruled out around any terminals that receive substantial rainfall from afternoon convection.
CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:
June 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
June 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
June 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022
June 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ024-025-040>042-074>078-083>086-088-089.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 616 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Aviation discussion has been updated to reflect the 12z TAFs.
* A Heat Advisory was issued for a portion of the southern and eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain from 11 AM until 8 PM.
* Probability of strong to severe thunderstorms increased across the area for Sunday, with the greatest risk from the Triangle north and east.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 300 AM Saturday...
1) Prolonged anomalous heat with minimal overnight relief continues through the weekend. A Heat Advisory was issued for the Sandhills and portions of the southern and eastern Piedmont as well as a portion of the Coastal Plain.
2) Diurnal showers and storms will be possible each day through the period. Sunday looks to have greater coverage, and some storms could be strong to severe. Coverage will be less from Monday through Wednesday before increasing again late next week.
DISCUSSION
As of 300 AM Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Prolonged anomalous heat with minimal overnight relief continues through the weekend. A Heat Advisory was issued for the Sandhills and portions of the southern and eastern Piedmont as well as a portion of the Coastal Plain.
A weak front with minimal drying and negligible cooling will settle across the NC coast into central SC later this morning.
In its wake, a continued anomalously hot air mass will remain in place, especially across the Sandhills, southern Piedmont into the southern/central Coastal Plain. Although heat indices will be lower today as some drier surface dew points are expected with diurnal heating, continued unseasonably hot temperatures and compounding effects of several days of intense heat and minimal overnight relief, heat related illnesses will remain possible if precautions are not taken.
An impact-based Heat Advisory has been issued for the southern Coastal Plain, Sandhills, southern Piedmont up into the Triangle from 11 AM until 8 PM. The combination of Major to Extreme HeatRisk, High Threat Levels of WBGT (>86), and heat indices of +102 after several days of anomalous heat, is a favorable overlap to still see potential societal impacts from heat related illness, especially with increased activity outside over the weekend. Convection developing along the Carolina coast this afternoon and outflow racing northward may limit the window for dangerous heat for the southern Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills.
A shortwave pivoting across the Great Lakes, and convectively induced disturbance shifting through the TN Valley on Sun will return deep southwesterly flow and +20C 850mb temperatures across a majority of central NC on Sunday. This will bubble back northward the widespread anomalous temperatures and dew points in the 70s and result in 100 to 110 degree heat indices, greatest in along and east of the US-1 corridor where a pool of higher humidity will be positioned. Consequently, HeatRisk is highlighting Major to Extreme once again, indicating that not only is this heat particularly unusual, it is correlated with high levels of heat illnesses as noted by historical CDC heat- health data, and this heat could produce significant health impacts on all populations, especially those without adequate hydration and cooling.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Diurnal showers and storms will be possible each day through the period. Sunday looks to have greater coverage, and some storms could be strong to severe. Coverage will be less from Monday through Wednesday before increasing again late next week.
A shortwave will move across the TN Valley into VA and the Delmarva on Sunday and Sunday night. At the surface, a trough will strengthen and extend into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front that moves through central NC on Sunday night. Ahead of the cold front, SW flow will increase, bringing in plenty of warm moist air with dew points in the upper-60s to lower-70s and PW values of 2 to 2.5 inches (125 to 150% of normal). Thus instability should be plentiful, with SBCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg possible, especially east. While the strongest forcing from the shortwave will be to our north, we will still get a glancing blow with weak mid-level height falls. CAMS vary significantly on the extent of shower and storm development, but this will hopefully become clearer as we get closer. Regardless expect coverage to be higher than previous days due to the added forcing from the wave, and POPs are mostly in the high chance to likely range.
The strongest mid-level flow will also be to our north on Sunday, but 30-40 kts is still depicted in the models, along with 20-30 kts in the lower levels. So while shear isn't overly impressive, it could be adequate for some severe storms in the afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being the main threat. The greatest chance looks to be in our NE Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain which will have the best combination of instability, forcing and shear. SPC now has a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across our entire region, with a slight (level 2 of 5) risk from the Triangle north and east. Even outside of any storms, SW winds may gust to 20-30 mph at times.
Behind Sunday night's cold frontal passage, drier air will filter into the region early next week. The front looks to get hung up near the coast, resulting in a chance of more typical isolated showers and storms across mainly our south and east each day from Monday through Wednesday. There may be an uptick in precipitation chances on Monday night and early Tuesday as a surface low tracks to our south and east, but it would be when instability is at a minimum. Convection chances will increase again late Thursday and especially Friday as we heat back up and the next cold front approaches from the NW.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 610 AM Saturday...
While isolated air mass thunderstorms could be possible anywhere, least likely at the Triad terminals, greater confidence exists along the seabreeze/outflow driven storms across the Coastal Plain, that should migrate northwest with time; FAY and RWI will have the best chance to see restrictions, lightning, and gusty winds as early as 19z, but most likely between 21-02z.
Outlook: Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will remain possible at all terminals through the forecast period.
Overnight into early morning sub-VFR cigs and mist can't be ruled out around any terminals that receive substantial rainfall from afternoon convection.
CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:
June 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022
June 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998
June 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KRDU: 79/2022 KFAY: 77/2022
June 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ024-025-040>042-074>078-083>086-088-089.
Link to 5 hour of 5 minute data for KTTA
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTTA
Wind History Graph: TTA
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of east us
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Raleigh/Durham, NC,
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