Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moncure, NC
March 28, 2024 10:12 AM EDT (14:12 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:06 AM Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 10:05 PM Moonset 7:38 AM |
Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 281342 AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 940 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
An elongated area of low pressure will move slowly east and off the Carolina coast this morning. The low will rapidly strengthen well off the coast on Friday, while high pressure moves across the Southeast. A weak cold front will drop into WV and VA late Sunday and then lift north late Monday. A stronger cold front will approach the region on Tuesday and move across the area on Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 940 AM Thursday...
Quick update to cancel the Flood Watch as rain has exited the Piedmont and Sandhills counties. Flood Watch remains in effect across the coastal plain/I-95 corridor. -cbl
Previous discussion:
...Flood Watch remains in effect through 8 PM this evening for the Coastal Plain of NC...
As of 06Z the surface low was located invof southern Sampson county, with the axis of strongest convection currently over the southern/central Coastal Plain, immediately east of the low and extending SSW along the quasi-stationary attendant front. The cold front approaching from the west has stalled over the Foothills.
Showers and isolated storms continue between the two fronts, coincident with the 850-700 mb f-gen max over the eastern Piedmont and Sandhills of NC. The low over southeast NC and the attendant front should continue slowly east and offshore through this morning.
Once the low shifts offshore this morning, the cold front to the west will begin moving eastward into central NC, with rain ending from W-E through the afternoon. The front should be through the area by tonight, with cool high pressure building into the area in its wake. Meanwhile aloft, the s/w over the lower MS Valley should continue eastward through the Deep South and Southeast today, then swing NE off and along the Carolina and mid-Atlantic coasts tonight.
Precipitation: Per the SPC mesoanalysis, PWATs range from about 1.0 inch just east of the Triad to 1.5 inches over the far southern Coastal Plain. While there may be some additional light to moderate rainfall between the Triad and Triangle that could produce half an inch to an inch of rain during the next few hours, the heaviest, most persistent rainfall should be over the eastern Piedmont and Sandhills, with additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches possible through this afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs will be lowest in the northeast where the rain and cloud cover lingers longest, with low/mid 50s expected, while in the west where the weather should dry out earliest and sun may try to peek out, highs could rise into the low 60s. Tonight, skies should be clear, although winds could stay stirred through a good part of the night. Given the CAA and clear skies, expect lows tonight mainly in the mid to upper 30s, possibly cooler if/where the winds go light/calm.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 AM Thursday...
* Breezy conditions with gusts of 25 to 30 mph on Friday * Drier and warmer with a good deal of sunshine
The upper trough associated with much of the rain on Wednesday and today will be closing off near the New England coast on Friday with a robust northwesterly flow aloft across the Carolinas. Heights at 500mb will rise 8 to 12m from Friday morning to Friday evening. A dry airmass will be in place during the day with PW values of 0.25 to 0.5 inches or a little more than 50% of normal. Surface low pressure well off the mid-Atlantic coast will rapidly deepen on Friday as it approaches the Canadian Maritimes. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure moving east across the northeastern Gulf Coast will result in breezy conditions with northwest to westerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. With a northwest flow aloft, some lee troughing is expected across the western Piedmont with afternoon dew points holding in the lower to mid 30s, further east the flow will be more westerly to even southwesterly across the Coastal Plain allowing some dew point recovery. RH values will drop to between 25 and 35% during the afternoon, lowest in the Triad. We will need to monitor for possible elevated fire weather conditions but given the precipitation over the past couple of days, fuels may be wet enough to limit the threat. Highs on Friday will range from mid 60s across the northern Coastal Plain to the upper 60s in the Triangle to near 70 in the Triad, western Piedmont and SC border counties.
As the flow aloft relaxes and flattens on Friday night, a couple of upper air disturbances will track east across the mid-Atlantic resulting in a minor increase in moisture and some high cloudiness.
Lows on Friday night will range in the lower to mid 40s. -Blaes
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 320 AM Thursday...
* Turning warmer this weekend with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Easter Sunday.
* Best chance of showers and possibly some storms late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Saturday through Sunday night: The upper air pattern will feature a brisk westerly to west-northwesterly flow across the mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas through the weekend with the most active flow extending from the northern Plains into New England. Surface high pressure centered over northern FL on Saturday morning will shift offshore with a southwesterly low level flow extending across the Southeast and into the Carolinas through the weekend. A developing frontal zone across the OH Valley on Saturday will extend east and drop into WV and VA on Sunday and into southeastern VA late Sunday night. NWP guidance has been trending southward with the frontal position on Sunday night. Expect dry weather and a mix of sunshine and some clouds on Saturday with continued warming. Highs will range in the lower to mid 70s which is about 5 to 10 degrees above average. Lows on Saturday night will range around 50. Clouds will increase from the north and northwest on Sunday and especially Sunday night. There is a small risk of some spotty rain near the VA border on Sunday night with rain chances less than 20%. Highs on Sunday will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s which is about 10 to 15 degrees above average. Lows will range in the 50s.
Monday through Wednesday night: The pattern will become more amplified and faster across the eastern CONUS during the first half of the work week. A storm system moving into CA over the weekend will move into the Four Corners region on Monday and then across the Plains on Tuesday and into the eastern Great Lakes by late Wednesday with the mid/upper level trough axis forecast to approach the southern Appalachians late Tuesday and move across the mid- Atlantic/Carolinas on Wednesday.
On Monday a weak cold front will likely be extending across southern VA with a region of enhanced cloudiness extending into NC. The front should lift slowly north through Monday night with the best forcing for ascent focused near and north of the front. While most of the precipitation associated with this system should be in VA, there's a small threat of some spotty rain across far northern NC. Otherwise, expect warm conditions with a southwest breeze. Highs on Monday will mainly range in the lower 80s although highs may be confined to the mid and upper 70s near the VA border in proximity to the front.
As the upper trough moves east across the MS/MO Valleys on Tuesday, a deep southwesterly flow will transport deep moisture across the Southeast with PW values of 1.0 to 1.25 inches across central NC by Monday night into Tuesday which is about 150 to 175% of normal.
After an initial disturbance moves across the Carolinas early Tuesday, PW values and forcing for ascent may relax a bit before surging up again late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough and associated cold front move across the area. There still remains uncertainty with the timing of the front but it appears the greatest precipitation chances are late Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. Have included a slight chance of Thunderstorms for at least parts of central NC on Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat of stronger storms will likely depend on the timing of the convection which could take advantage of greater instability around the time of peak heating. Highs on Tuesday will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s with notably cooler highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. -Blaes
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 715 AM Thursday...
24 hour TAF period: IFR/LIFR cigs will gradually improve to VFR from west to east through the afternoon. VFR expected everywhere by 00Z Fri. Vsbys should generally be VFR or MVFR, with some brief drops to MVFR possible, mainly at KRWI and KFAY with rain. Rain/showers impacting KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI should slowly move eastward this morning/early aft. The rain should move out of central NC by 00Z Fri. Northerly winds should become more nwly this aft/eve. There will likely be periods of gusts in the 16-22 kt range through early aft, with gusts abating around sunset and winds gradually decreasing to around 5 kts late tonight. -KC
Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through Monday. Gusty winds of 20-30 kts are expected from the W/NW on Fri and from the SW on Sat. -Danco
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ011-027-028-042-043- 078-089.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 940 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
An elongated area of low pressure will move slowly east and off the Carolina coast this morning. The low will rapidly strengthen well off the coast on Friday, while high pressure moves across the Southeast. A weak cold front will drop into WV and VA late Sunday and then lift north late Monday. A stronger cold front will approach the region on Tuesday and move across the area on Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 940 AM Thursday...
Quick update to cancel the Flood Watch as rain has exited the Piedmont and Sandhills counties. Flood Watch remains in effect across the coastal plain/I-95 corridor. -cbl
Previous discussion:
...Flood Watch remains in effect through 8 PM this evening for the Coastal Plain of NC...
As of 06Z the surface low was located invof southern Sampson county, with the axis of strongest convection currently over the southern/central Coastal Plain, immediately east of the low and extending SSW along the quasi-stationary attendant front. The cold front approaching from the west has stalled over the Foothills.
Showers and isolated storms continue between the two fronts, coincident with the 850-700 mb f-gen max over the eastern Piedmont and Sandhills of NC. The low over southeast NC and the attendant front should continue slowly east and offshore through this morning.
Once the low shifts offshore this morning, the cold front to the west will begin moving eastward into central NC, with rain ending from W-E through the afternoon. The front should be through the area by tonight, with cool high pressure building into the area in its wake. Meanwhile aloft, the s/w over the lower MS Valley should continue eastward through the Deep South and Southeast today, then swing NE off and along the Carolina and mid-Atlantic coasts tonight.
Precipitation: Per the SPC mesoanalysis, PWATs range from about 1.0 inch just east of the Triad to 1.5 inches over the far southern Coastal Plain. While there may be some additional light to moderate rainfall between the Triad and Triangle that could produce half an inch to an inch of rain during the next few hours, the heaviest, most persistent rainfall should be over the eastern Piedmont and Sandhills, with additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches possible through this afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs will be lowest in the northeast where the rain and cloud cover lingers longest, with low/mid 50s expected, while in the west where the weather should dry out earliest and sun may try to peek out, highs could rise into the low 60s. Tonight, skies should be clear, although winds could stay stirred through a good part of the night. Given the CAA and clear skies, expect lows tonight mainly in the mid to upper 30s, possibly cooler if/where the winds go light/calm.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 AM Thursday...
* Breezy conditions with gusts of 25 to 30 mph on Friday * Drier and warmer with a good deal of sunshine
The upper trough associated with much of the rain on Wednesday and today will be closing off near the New England coast on Friday with a robust northwesterly flow aloft across the Carolinas. Heights at 500mb will rise 8 to 12m from Friday morning to Friday evening. A dry airmass will be in place during the day with PW values of 0.25 to 0.5 inches or a little more than 50% of normal. Surface low pressure well off the mid-Atlantic coast will rapidly deepen on Friday as it approaches the Canadian Maritimes. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure moving east across the northeastern Gulf Coast will result in breezy conditions with northwest to westerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. With a northwest flow aloft, some lee troughing is expected across the western Piedmont with afternoon dew points holding in the lower to mid 30s, further east the flow will be more westerly to even southwesterly across the Coastal Plain allowing some dew point recovery. RH values will drop to between 25 and 35% during the afternoon, lowest in the Triad. We will need to monitor for possible elevated fire weather conditions but given the precipitation over the past couple of days, fuels may be wet enough to limit the threat. Highs on Friday will range from mid 60s across the northern Coastal Plain to the upper 60s in the Triangle to near 70 in the Triad, western Piedmont and SC border counties.
As the flow aloft relaxes and flattens on Friday night, a couple of upper air disturbances will track east across the mid-Atlantic resulting in a minor increase in moisture and some high cloudiness.
Lows on Friday night will range in the lower to mid 40s. -Blaes
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 320 AM Thursday...
* Turning warmer this weekend with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Easter Sunday.
* Best chance of showers and possibly some storms late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Saturday through Sunday night: The upper air pattern will feature a brisk westerly to west-northwesterly flow across the mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas through the weekend with the most active flow extending from the northern Plains into New England. Surface high pressure centered over northern FL on Saturday morning will shift offshore with a southwesterly low level flow extending across the Southeast and into the Carolinas through the weekend. A developing frontal zone across the OH Valley on Saturday will extend east and drop into WV and VA on Sunday and into southeastern VA late Sunday night. NWP guidance has been trending southward with the frontal position on Sunday night. Expect dry weather and a mix of sunshine and some clouds on Saturday with continued warming. Highs will range in the lower to mid 70s which is about 5 to 10 degrees above average. Lows on Saturday night will range around 50. Clouds will increase from the north and northwest on Sunday and especially Sunday night. There is a small risk of some spotty rain near the VA border on Sunday night with rain chances less than 20%. Highs on Sunday will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s which is about 10 to 15 degrees above average. Lows will range in the 50s.
Monday through Wednesday night: The pattern will become more amplified and faster across the eastern CONUS during the first half of the work week. A storm system moving into CA over the weekend will move into the Four Corners region on Monday and then across the Plains on Tuesday and into the eastern Great Lakes by late Wednesday with the mid/upper level trough axis forecast to approach the southern Appalachians late Tuesday and move across the mid- Atlantic/Carolinas on Wednesday.
On Monday a weak cold front will likely be extending across southern VA with a region of enhanced cloudiness extending into NC. The front should lift slowly north through Monday night with the best forcing for ascent focused near and north of the front. While most of the precipitation associated with this system should be in VA, there's a small threat of some spotty rain across far northern NC. Otherwise, expect warm conditions with a southwest breeze. Highs on Monday will mainly range in the lower 80s although highs may be confined to the mid and upper 70s near the VA border in proximity to the front.
As the upper trough moves east across the MS/MO Valleys on Tuesday, a deep southwesterly flow will transport deep moisture across the Southeast with PW values of 1.0 to 1.25 inches across central NC by Monday night into Tuesday which is about 150 to 175% of normal.
After an initial disturbance moves across the Carolinas early Tuesday, PW values and forcing for ascent may relax a bit before surging up again late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough and associated cold front move across the area. There still remains uncertainty with the timing of the front but it appears the greatest precipitation chances are late Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. Have included a slight chance of Thunderstorms for at least parts of central NC on Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat of stronger storms will likely depend on the timing of the convection which could take advantage of greater instability around the time of peak heating. Highs on Tuesday will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s with notably cooler highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. -Blaes
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 715 AM Thursday...
24 hour TAF period: IFR/LIFR cigs will gradually improve to VFR from west to east through the afternoon. VFR expected everywhere by 00Z Fri. Vsbys should generally be VFR or MVFR, with some brief drops to MVFR possible, mainly at KRWI and KFAY with rain. Rain/showers impacting KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI should slowly move eastward this morning/early aft. The rain should move out of central NC by 00Z Fri. Northerly winds should become more nwly this aft/eve. There will likely be periods of gusts in the 16-22 kt range through early aft, with gusts abating around sunset and winds gradually decreasing to around 5 kts late tonight. -KC
Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through Monday. Gusty winds of 20-30 kts are expected from the W/NW on Fri and from the SW on Sat. -Danco
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ011-027-028-042-043- 078-089.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KTTA RALEIGH EXEC JETPORT AT SANFORDLEE COUNTY,NC | 3 sm | 12 min | N 11G14 | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 52°F | 100% | 29.93 | |
KSCR SILER CITY MUNI,NC | 22 sm | 17 min | N 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 50°F | 50°F | 100% | 29.95 | |
KRDU RALEIGHDURHAM INTL,NC | 23 sm | 21 min | NNE 10 | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 48°F | 87% | 29.97 |
Raleigh/Durham, NC,
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