Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garland, TN

DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A significant severe weather outbreak is expected today. Storms have already produced significant hail and damaging winds this morning and minimal airmass modification in their wake. Tropical humidity remains across the entire region with 70+ F dewpoints within an increasingly warm boundary layer. Storms are expected to fire later this evening both along and ahead of a cold front positioned over OK/KS. These storms will head east, likely congealing into a line with the potential for scattered development out ahead.

Today's environment is climatologically rare for the Midsouth in late spring. A stout EML has been positioned over the region for the past few days, containing 700-500 mb lapse rates into the 8 C/km range and continues to persist today. Surface insolation, albeit muted under a thick cirrus shield, in conjunction with these lapse rates will allow for MLCAPE of 3500+ J/kg this evening. Upper wind fields are expected to contain a strengthening mid- level jet streak during this time frame as well with the Midsouth optimally positioned under the right entrance region.
Lift from this feature is expected to collate with peak heating, significantly reducing capping. Surface convergence will be somewhat nebulous this afternoon where a few renegade cells are possible, but the highest confidence for storms is still with the cold front as it passes through.

Once storms are able to form, they will find themselves within a well-sheared environment with bulk shear in excess of 50 knots.
Low- level hodograph curvature will be lacking early on which suggests a large (2"+) hail threat during the early evening. Very cold 850-700 mb wet bulb temperatures could create strong cold pools and a strong (75+ mph) damaging wind threat. As the evening progresses, low-level hodographs are anticipated to enlarge with both 0-1km and 0-3km SRH approaching the 200-300 m2/s2 range along and north of I-40 suggesting a higher tornado threat. Storm mode is still the largest question regarding the potential for significant tornadoes this evening. If prefrontal supercells are able to form, significant tornadoes are possible. Along the front, initially discrete storms are expected to congeal into a line with time. Tornadoes within this regime will be most likely while storms are discrete before being undercut by strengthening cold pools. Regardless, today has the potential to be a dangerous day with an Enhanced (3 out of 5) Risk to a Moderate (4 out of 5)
risk for severe weather in effect across much of the region. Large (2+ inch) hail, swaths of strong (75+ mph) straight line winds, and the potential for strong tornadoes exists.

The cold front will continue south through the night, eventually stalling somewhere over N MS. Temperatures should cool a bit tomorrow with a few diurnally driven showers across N MS. A threat for a few stronger cells containing marginally severe hail and damaging wind is possible. This threat also exists Sunday as the stalled boundary begins to lift north as a warm front in response to a new trough moving east through the Western CONUS.

The western trough is expected to traverse the Central CONUS Monday, reaching the Midsouth Tuesday. Another warm, tropical airmass will be in place as this system approaches. Model guidance continues to place a surface low over the Midwest with a cold front moving through the region during the evening. Strong upper flow will overspread a destabilizing airmass, resulting in another chance for severe weather as outlined by the SPC. Specific details on hazards and the magnitude of any severe threat are hard to pin down at this time. However, at least a damaging wind and hail threat are possible. Models currently struggle to produce the low level SRH necessary for a widespread tornado threat, but some spin ups could be possible within an organized line of convection. This forecast is still several days out and will likely change through the weekend. So, stay tuned for updates.

Ensembles are in good agreement with the upper flow taking a northwesterly orientation through the end of the week after the frontal passage Tuesday. Strong surface high pressure in combination with this upper pattern will lock in colder air through the end of the week. Highs are currently expected to remain in the 70s and low 80s to end the period with mostly dry weather.



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Significant impacts to aviation expected throughout the forecast period. Southerly winds with gusts to 25 knots and MVFR CIGs will continue through this afternoon amid a very humid airmass. Some erosion of these clouds could occur, but confidence in this scenario is too low to remove/raise any of these MVFR CIGs at this time. As the afternoon progresses, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Midsouth. Storms are very likely to be severe, reaching the area as early as 22z-23z. Added TEMPO groups to JBR/MKL/MEM to account for this threat which are likely to be amended as today's situation evolves. Significant hail (> 2 inches in diameter) is possible today with larger thunderstorms. Storms coverage may wane through the night on approach to TUP.

Behind today's severe weather, winds will veer to westerly around 10 knots. Skies are expected to be FEW250/SCT and VFR through the end of the period at all sites after storms leave each terminal.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.