Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fuquay-Varina, NC

KEY MESSAGES
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

1) Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue for the next several days, mainly each afternoon through evening, with the better chances in our NW. But a general decrease in coverage is expected this weekend through early next week.

DISCUSSION
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue for the next several days, mainly each afternoon through evening, with the better chances in our NW. But a general decrease in coverage is expected this weekend through early next week.

The weakening mid level low now over far N GA will continue a slow northward drift into E KY today, then track NE and dissipate, as broad northern stream troughing over the N Plains and Upper Midwest early this morning shifts E toward the Great Lakes. The result will be a weak baggy shear axis holding just to our W through tonight, on the W side of a strengthening anticyclone off the Mid Atlantic coast. At the surface, a weak and nearly stationary frontal zone will remain just to our W and N, along the western edge of the encroaching ridge to our E, leaving us within an otherwise ill- defined surface pattern with light winds amidst a loose MSLP pressure pattern. We'll have one more day of high PWs, up to 125% of normal, so expect at least scattered coverage of showers and storms, with coverage peaking mid afternoon through early evening. Morning clouds will once again be slow to lift and break up, but afternoon cloud breaks will allow for moderate CAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, along with deep layer bulk shear a bit higher than on Tue but still only around 20 kt. A few heavy downpours will remain possible today, although the slowly waning PW and uptick in cell motion should keep this threat a little lower than yesterday and focused more on the western half.

The weak flow pattern will hold through late week as the offshore ridge continues to build, resulting in gradually rising heights over NC, especially in the E. The mid level flow will increase slightly from the SW the WSW over the weekend as the broad Great Lakes trough shifts slowly E and weakens over the Mid Atlantic region, bringing the aforementioned shear axis into our NW sections. Near-climo chance pops are likely to continue through late week and into the weekend, focused primarily in the NW (near the shear axis aloft with more favorable mid level lapse rates) and SE (from sea breeze action). The retrograding ridge is expected to flatten and build over FL/GA/SC early next week as the broad northern stream trough weakens further over the Mid Atlantic/Northeast, shunting the shear axis well to our west and resulting in a weak W flow while surface lee troughing develops over the Piedmont. This should produce an overall downturn in pops early to mid portion of next week, with near to below normal PW, lowering mid level lapse rates, and a weak mid level flow. Temps will not deviate more than a few degrees from normal until Sun or Mon onward, when highs should trend to the lower to mid 90s with lows generally 70-75.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 632 AM Wednesday...

Widespread flight restrictions with low stratus will remain the primary concern this morning. Widespread LIFR to IFR ceilings and a few areas with MVFR visibilities currently being observed across the region will continue for the next few hours. A few showers will continue to move north mainly affecting KFAY. The low stratus will lift this morning, returning all sites to VFR or MVFR before noon with light southerly winds. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible once again, primarily impacting eastern terminals in the late afternoon with brief restrictions.
Storm coverage looks lower across the Triad, but still possible.

Outlook: Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain possible through late week, with reduced coverage by the weekend. Early morning stratus and fog restrictions will be possible each night.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.