Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fuquay-Varina, NC

KEY MESSAGES
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

1) Unusually hot weather returns starting Wed, lasting through the weekend, with the most dangerous heat on Thu/Fri.

2) With high heat and humidity taking hold, we'll have a chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Unusually hot weather returns starting Wed, lasting through the weekend, with the most dangerous heat on Thu/Fri.

A respite to the recent above-normal temperatures arrives today, as a backdoor front settles across our W and S with a more temperate air mass building in from the NE, while a baggy mid-level shortwave trough shifts into the Eastern US. This will result in greater cloud cover and near-normal thicknesses today, with highs within a few degrees of normal, in the lower 80s to near 90. But as this front dissipates and the surface high's center shifts off the Carolina coast toward Bermuda on Wed, the shortwave axis will drift to our S and E, allowing deep ridging to build anew over the interior Southeast. Confidence is high that temperatures will rebound back to well above normal, as thicknesses rebound to 10-20 m above normal Thu/Fri. This will support highs both days in the mid to upper 90s, perhaps reaching 100F in spots, especially Fri. These highs (accompanied by warm overnight lows mostly in the 70s) Thu/Fri may approach or exceed records, and a heat advisory or other heat products may be needed. The NWS experimental probabilistic Heat Risk shows a 60-95% chance of reaching the Major category (level 3 of 4)
over most of central NC Thu/Fri, indicating that significant adverse health impacts are possible for all populations without adequate cooling or hydration, and heat illnesses may develop suddenly for those working or exercising outdoors during the hottest part of the day. Temps are expected to be slightly lower Sat onward by a category or so, as the mid level ridge begins to weaken with a dip in the westerlies into the Mid Miss Valley and Ohio Valley, producing a greater chance for scattered afternoon and evening convection yielding greater cloud cover. But it will still be quite warm and humid, and the heat stress will remain elevated through the weekend and into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2... With high heat and humidity taking hold, we'll have a chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend.

There continues to be a chance of much needed albeit temporary relief from showers and thunderstorms as high heat and humidity will create unstable conditions that will peak during the afternoon and evening hours late this week through the weekend. Essentially we need some triggers to get things going with the instability and heat in place. There will be hard to time disturbances aloft (some resulting from convection upstream) that should combine with a surface lee trough and approach of some weakening cold fronts from the NW/N during the period for starters.

Thus, we will carry at least some chance of mainly diurnal thunderstorms each day. The higher POP appears to be Friday, Sunday, and Monday with 40-60 POP. The lower POP may be behind disturbances/weak surface or convective boundaries possibly Thursday and Sunday. Yet, check back in as updates will obviously be needed as the week unfolds. Suffice to say, it will be very summery and these scattered pulse-type thunderstorms will only provide temporary relief from the heat and drought. Yet, they are much needed.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1255 AM Tuesday...

Isolated showers persist near the Triad terminals currently, but these should continue to diminish over the next couple of hours.
Western and southern sections of central NC, including INT/GSO/FAY and areas that saw rainfall yesterday, are likely to see development of MVFR cigs mainly after 08z and lasting through much of the morning. And at INT and perhaps GSO, a period of IFR cigs are expected starting toward sunrise and lasting through at least mid morning. RDU has a good chance of seeing a short period of MVFR cigs between 12z and 15z, but overall, RDU/RWI are expected to stay VFR through this evening, although periods of mid and high level cigs will continue areawide. Regarding precip, scattered showers and a few storms are possible near INT/GSO late today, mainly from 20z through 04z, while other terminals should stay mostly dry. Surface winds will be 10 kts or less from the ESE or E through 13z, then veer to be from the SE and SSE by late morning and from the SW to WSW this afternoon at 10-15 kts, then under 10 kts after sunset.

Looking beyond 06z Wed, there is a good chance of sub-VFR cigs areawide late tonight through mid Wed morning, with the highest confidence at INT/GSO. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to dominate into the weekend, although daytime isolated to scattered showers/storms will remain possible areawide each day, which may cause brief sub-VFR vsbys in downpours and brief gusty winds.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

June 10: KRDU: 101/2008 KFAY: 99/2008

June 11: KGSO: 98/1914 KRDU: 100/1914 KFAY: 102/1926

June 12: KRDU: 98/2002 KFAY: 99/1926

June 13: KRDU: 100/2002 KFAY: 99/2022

June 14: KGSO: 98/1926 KRDU: 97/1944 KFAY: 100/2022

June 15: KRDU: 99/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 9: KGSO: 72/2020

June 11: KGSO: 74/2008 KRDU: 74/2008 KFAY: 77/1981

June 12: KGSO: 72/1998 KRDU: 75/1986 KFAY: 76/2016

June 13: KGSO: 73/2015 KRDU: 75/2025 KFAY: 77/1998

June 14: KGSO: 71/2025 KFAY: 77/2022

June 15: KGSO: 74/2022 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1926

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.