Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fuquay-Varina, NC

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 930 AM Thursday...

Windy and Dry Today

Several upper level disturbances embedded within the broad cyclonic flow aloft that's associated with a dual low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes and Northeast US will rotate across the area through early Friday. At the surface, a reinforcing cold front will cross the area this afternoon.

The feature weather headline today will be the windy conditions. As daytime heating commences, deep vertical mixing(7-8k ft) will bring down some of the day 35 to 45 kts found at the toped mixed layer to produce frequent gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected, occasionally gusting to 35 mph at times. An enhancemnt of orographic cirrus will result in a bit more high cloud cover across the western Piedmont.
Otherwise, under mostly sunny skies, highs ranging from mid/upper 70s north to lower lower/mid 80s south.

In terms of rain chances, mostly dry conditions should prevail.
The deep westerly flow in place will limit moisture and instability across the area( PWATs only around 50% of normal. As a result, weak lift from the passage of the front and intermittent shortwave energy swinging through the area will yield a little more than a few clouds/virga or a passing sprinkle/isolated shower, especially across southern NC late Thursday night/early Friday morning in response to increasing upper jet divergence.

Gusts should subside this evening and tonight. However, we'll keep a slight stirring of the winds owing to the CAA. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 50s, with some upper 40s possible in the typically colder locations over the northern Piedmont.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 212 AM Thursday...

Sunshine and cooler...

Cool air advection will continue Friday as high pressure builds in from the west. Expect mainly sunny skies and breezy west winds at 10- 20 mph. Highs will likely be 5 to 10 degrees below normal for a change. Expect highs in the lower to mid 70s, except upper 70s over the SE. The high pressure will build overhead Friday night. This will lead to excellent radiational cooling and lows mostly in the 40s, except lower 50s SE. These lows will be around 10 degrees below normal. Natures air conditioning.

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LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 230 AM Thursday...

Aloft, the trough will shift offshore by Sat as the low lifts newd across New England and Nova Scotia, with generally wnwly flow over the region. A s/w will track across the area Sat night, with another following Sun/Sun night. The flow will become more zonal to weakly anticyclonic by Mon, then swly by Tue. Another s/w passage is expected on Tue. A low may close off over the Great Lakes Tue night/Wed. At the surface, relatively cool high pressure will ridge into the area from the NW Sat and Sun, while a quasi-stationary boundary to the south tries to lift nwd into the area as a warm front. The warm front should finally lift into the area Sun night/Mon, where it could linger through Mon. While model agreement remains low for Tue/Wed, generally expect a low to develop along the front and lift nwd across the region and off the East Coast by mid- week. Below normal temperatures are expected through at least Mon.
Still generally expect Sat/Sat night to be dry. Showers/storms will be possible with the s/w passages, especially along the surface boundary, Sun-Tue.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 130 AM Thursday...

TAF period: Patchy IFR cigs central and east will give way to VFR conditions through 14z. There will be some increase in high cloudiness late morning; however, VFR will prevail. It will become windy with mixing this morning, 14z-15z and continuing through late afternoon. West winds 15-25kt may gust to 30-35kt.

Outlook: The forecast will be VFR tonight through Saturday night.
There will be a chance of showers at all sites Sunday through Monday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.