Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fuquay-Varina, NC
March 28, 2024 2:08 PM EDT (18:08 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:05 AM Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 10:04 PM Moonset 7:36 AM |
Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 281609 AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1209 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
An elongated area of low pressure will move slowly northeast and away from the NC coast through tonight. The low will rapidly strengthen well off the coast on Friday, while high pressure moves across the Southeast. A weak cold front will drop into WV and VA late Sunday and then lift north late Monday. A stronger cold front will approach the region on Tuesday and move across the area on Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 1200 PM Thursday...
Just a quick update to mention the Flood Watch has been cancelled for the rest of central NC. Only some lingering light rain is expected across eastern areas this afternoon.
As of 1100 AM Thursday...
Periods of heavy showers and storms moved across central NC overnight, but they didn't last long enough and it has been dry enough lately that we avoided any significant flash flooding across the area. Rainfall totals since yesterday have ranged from around a half inch to an inch across the far western Piedmont to 1 to 2 inches in most other places. Isolated spots received as much as 2 to 3 inches along a stripe from Orange and Durham counties down to Moore and Richmond counties, according to observations and radar estimates. The only remaining flooding concerns are a few gauges on the Tar, Neuse and Haw rivers which are in minor flood or forecast to reach minor flood stage over the next couple of days.
An elongated area of surface low pressure and boundary are now located just off the coast of the Carolinas this morning. Central NC is sandwiched between this feature and another cold front that is just starting to enter the Triad, separating dew points in the 20s and 30s from upper-40s to lower-50s. This front will slowly push east across central NC through this evening. With the low deepening but moving east and away from the region, and drier air starting to filter in (PW values down to 0.5-1" west of the Coastal Plain), the heaviest rain has shifted to our east near the coast. Only some light stratiform rain and drizzle remains, and this has already completely exited the Triad, will exit the Triangle and Sandhills between about 18z-21z this afternoon, and will exit the Coastal Plain between about 21z-00z. No more thunder is expected as all the MUCAPE has shifted near the coast. So at most another one to two tenths of an inch will fall, and cancelled the Flood Watch for the NE Piedmont and Sandhills.
As the potent mid/upper trough swings through this afternoon and early evening, skies will clear from west to east. However, mostly cloudy to overcast skies will likely linger for much of the day outside of the western Piedmont. When combined with northerly winds gusting up to 15-25 mph between the deepening low off the coast and high pressure building in from the lower MS Valley, it will be a chilly day. High temperatures will range from lower-50s in the far NE (where skies won't clear until this evening) to lower-60s in the far west which could be mostly sunny for a good part of the afternoon. This is anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Some light NW winds will last into the overnight hours, preventing ideal radiational cooling despite clear skies, but the CAA will still help lows drop into the mid-to-upper-30s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 AM Thursday...
* Breezy conditions with gusts of 25 to 30 mph on Friday * Drier and warmer with a good deal of sunshine
The upper trough associated with much of the rain on Wednesday and today will be closing off near the New England coast on Friday with a robust northwesterly flow aloft across the Carolinas. Heights at 500mb will rise 8 to 12m from Friday morning to Friday evening. A dry airmass will be in place during the day with PW values of 0.25 to 0.5 inches or a little more than 50% of normal. Surface low pressure well off the mid-Atlantic coast will rapidly deepen on Friday as it approaches the Canadian Maritimes. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure moving east across the northeastern Gulf Coast will result in breezy conditions with northwest to westerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. With a northwest flow aloft, some lee troughing is expected across the western Piedmont with afternoon dew points holding in the lower to mid 30s, further east the flow will be more westerly to even southwesterly across the Coastal Plain allowing some dew point recovery. RH values will drop to between 25 and 35% during the afternoon, lowest in the Triad. We will need to monitor for possible elevated fire weather conditions but given the precipitation over the past couple of days, fuels may be wet enough to limit the threat. Highs on Friday will range from mid 60s across the northern Coastal Plain to the upper 60s in the Triangle to near 70 in the Triad, western Piedmont and SC border counties.
As the flow aloft relaxes and flattens on Friday night, a couple of upper air disturbances will track east across the mid-Atlantic resulting in a minor increase in moisture and some high cloudiness.
Lows on Friday night will range in the lower to mid 40s. -Blaes
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 320 AM Thursday...
* Turning warmer this weekend with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Easter Sunday.
* Best chance of showers and possibly some storms late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Saturday through Sunday night: The upper air pattern will feature a brisk westerly to west-northwesterly flow across the mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas through the weekend with the most active flow extending from the northern Plains into New England. Surface high pressure centered over northern FL on Saturday morning will shift offshore with a southwesterly low level flow extending across the Southeast and into the Carolinas through the weekend. A developing frontal zone across the OH Valley on Saturday will extend east and drop into WV and VA on Sunday and into southeastern VA late Sunday night. NWP guidance has been trending southward with the frontal position on Sunday night. Expect dry weather and a mix of sunshine and some clouds on Saturday with continued warming. Highs will range in the lower to mid 70s which is about 5 to 10 degrees above average. Lows on Saturday night will range around 50. Clouds will increase from the north and northwest on Sunday and especially Sunday night. There is a small risk of some spotty rain near the VA border on Sunday night with rain chances less than 20%. Highs on Sunday will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s which is about 10 to 15 degrees above average. Lows will range in the 50s.
Monday through Wednesday night: The pattern will become more amplified and faster across the eastern CONUS during the first half of the work week. A storm system moving into CA over the weekend will move into the Four Corners region on Monday and then across the Plains on Tuesday and into the eastern Great Lakes by late Wednesday with the mid/upper level trough axis forecast to approach the southern Appalachians late Tuesday and move across the mid- Atlantic/Carolinas on Wednesday.
On Monday a weak cold front will likely be extending across southern VA with a region of enhanced cloudiness extending into NC. The front should lift slowly north through Monday night with the best forcing for ascent focused near and north of the front. While most of the precipitation associated with this system should be in VA, there's a small threat of some spotty rain across far northern NC. Otherwise, expect warm conditions with a southwest breeze. Highs on Monday will mainly range in the lower 80s although highs may be confined to the mid and upper 70s near the VA border in proximity to the front.
As the upper trough moves east across the MS/MO Valleys on Tuesday, a deep southwesterly flow will transport deep moisture across the Southeast with PW values of 1.0 to 1.25 inches across central NC by Monday night into Tuesday which is about 150 to 175% of normal.
After an initial disturbance moves across the Carolinas early Tuesday, PW values and forcing for ascent may relax a bit before surging up again late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough and associated cold front move across the area. There still remains uncertainty with the timing of the front but it appears the greatest precipitation chances are late Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. Have included a slight chance of Thunderstorms for at least parts of central NC on Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat of stronger storms will likely depend on the timing of the convection which could take advantage of greater instability around the time of peak heating. Highs on Tuesday will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s with notably cooler highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. -Blaes
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 715 AM Thursday...
24 hour TAF period: IFR/LIFR cigs will gradually improve to VFR from west to east through the afternoon. VFR expected everywhere by 00Z Fri. Vsbys should generally be VFR or MVFR, with some brief drops to MVFR possible, mainly at KRWI and KFAY with rain. Rain/showers impacting KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI should slowly move eastward this morning/early aft. The rain should move out of central NC by 00Z Fri. Northerly winds should become more nwly this aft/eve. There will likely be periods of gusts in the 16-22 kt range through early aft, with gusts abating around sunset and winds gradually decreasing to around 5 kts late tonight. -KC
Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through Monday. Gusty winds of 20-30 kts are expected from the W/NW on Fri and from the SW on Sat. -Danco
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1209 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
An elongated area of low pressure will move slowly northeast and away from the NC coast through tonight. The low will rapidly strengthen well off the coast on Friday, while high pressure moves across the Southeast. A weak cold front will drop into WV and VA late Sunday and then lift north late Monday. A stronger cold front will approach the region on Tuesday and move across the area on Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 1200 PM Thursday...
Just a quick update to mention the Flood Watch has been cancelled for the rest of central NC. Only some lingering light rain is expected across eastern areas this afternoon.
As of 1100 AM Thursday...
Periods of heavy showers and storms moved across central NC overnight, but they didn't last long enough and it has been dry enough lately that we avoided any significant flash flooding across the area. Rainfall totals since yesterday have ranged from around a half inch to an inch across the far western Piedmont to 1 to 2 inches in most other places. Isolated spots received as much as 2 to 3 inches along a stripe from Orange and Durham counties down to Moore and Richmond counties, according to observations and radar estimates. The only remaining flooding concerns are a few gauges on the Tar, Neuse and Haw rivers which are in minor flood or forecast to reach minor flood stage over the next couple of days.
An elongated area of surface low pressure and boundary are now located just off the coast of the Carolinas this morning. Central NC is sandwiched between this feature and another cold front that is just starting to enter the Triad, separating dew points in the 20s and 30s from upper-40s to lower-50s. This front will slowly push east across central NC through this evening. With the low deepening but moving east and away from the region, and drier air starting to filter in (PW values down to 0.5-1" west of the Coastal Plain), the heaviest rain has shifted to our east near the coast. Only some light stratiform rain and drizzle remains, and this has already completely exited the Triad, will exit the Triangle and Sandhills between about 18z-21z this afternoon, and will exit the Coastal Plain between about 21z-00z. No more thunder is expected as all the MUCAPE has shifted near the coast. So at most another one to two tenths of an inch will fall, and cancelled the Flood Watch for the NE Piedmont and Sandhills.
As the potent mid/upper trough swings through this afternoon and early evening, skies will clear from west to east. However, mostly cloudy to overcast skies will likely linger for much of the day outside of the western Piedmont. When combined with northerly winds gusting up to 15-25 mph between the deepening low off the coast and high pressure building in from the lower MS Valley, it will be a chilly day. High temperatures will range from lower-50s in the far NE (where skies won't clear until this evening) to lower-60s in the far west which could be mostly sunny for a good part of the afternoon. This is anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Some light NW winds will last into the overnight hours, preventing ideal radiational cooling despite clear skies, but the CAA will still help lows drop into the mid-to-upper-30s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 AM Thursday...
* Breezy conditions with gusts of 25 to 30 mph on Friday * Drier and warmer with a good deal of sunshine
The upper trough associated with much of the rain on Wednesday and today will be closing off near the New England coast on Friday with a robust northwesterly flow aloft across the Carolinas. Heights at 500mb will rise 8 to 12m from Friday morning to Friday evening. A dry airmass will be in place during the day with PW values of 0.25 to 0.5 inches or a little more than 50% of normal. Surface low pressure well off the mid-Atlantic coast will rapidly deepen on Friday as it approaches the Canadian Maritimes. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure moving east across the northeastern Gulf Coast will result in breezy conditions with northwest to westerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. With a northwest flow aloft, some lee troughing is expected across the western Piedmont with afternoon dew points holding in the lower to mid 30s, further east the flow will be more westerly to even southwesterly across the Coastal Plain allowing some dew point recovery. RH values will drop to between 25 and 35% during the afternoon, lowest in the Triad. We will need to monitor for possible elevated fire weather conditions but given the precipitation over the past couple of days, fuels may be wet enough to limit the threat. Highs on Friday will range from mid 60s across the northern Coastal Plain to the upper 60s in the Triangle to near 70 in the Triad, western Piedmont and SC border counties.
As the flow aloft relaxes and flattens on Friday night, a couple of upper air disturbances will track east across the mid-Atlantic resulting in a minor increase in moisture and some high cloudiness.
Lows on Friday night will range in the lower to mid 40s. -Blaes
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 320 AM Thursday...
* Turning warmer this weekend with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Easter Sunday.
* Best chance of showers and possibly some storms late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Saturday through Sunday night: The upper air pattern will feature a brisk westerly to west-northwesterly flow across the mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas through the weekend with the most active flow extending from the northern Plains into New England. Surface high pressure centered over northern FL on Saturday morning will shift offshore with a southwesterly low level flow extending across the Southeast and into the Carolinas through the weekend. A developing frontal zone across the OH Valley on Saturday will extend east and drop into WV and VA on Sunday and into southeastern VA late Sunday night. NWP guidance has been trending southward with the frontal position on Sunday night. Expect dry weather and a mix of sunshine and some clouds on Saturday with continued warming. Highs will range in the lower to mid 70s which is about 5 to 10 degrees above average. Lows on Saturday night will range around 50. Clouds will increase from the north and northwest on Sunday and especially Sunday night. There is a small risk of some spotty rain near the VA border on Sunday night with rain chances less than 20%. Highs on Sunday will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s which is about 10 to 15 degrees above average. Lows will range in the 50s.
Monday through Wednesday night: The pattern will become more amplified and faster across the eastern CONUS during the first half of the work week. A storm system moving into CA over the weekend will move into the Four Corners region on Monday and then across the Plains on Tuesday and into the eastern Great Lakes by late Wednesday with the mid/upper level trough axis forecast to approach the southern Appalachians late Tuesday and move across the mid- Atlantic/Carolinas on Wednesday.
On Monday a weak cold front will likely be extending across southern VA with a region of enhanced cloudiness extending into NC. The front should lift slowly north through Monday night with the best forcing for ascent focused near and north of the front. While most of the precipitation associated with this system should be in VA, there's a small threat of some spotty rain across far northern NC. Otherwise, expect warm conditions with a southwest breeze. Highs on Monday will mainly range in the lower 80s although highs may be confined to the mid and upper 70s near the VA border in proximity to the front.
As the upper trough moves east across the MS/MO Valleys on Tuesday, a deep southwesterly flow will transport deep moisture across the Southeast with PW values of 1.0 to 1.25 inches across central NC by Monday night into Tuesday which is about 150 to 175% of normal.
After an initial disturbance moves across the Carolinas early Tuesday, PW values and forcing for ascent may relax a bit before surging up again late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough and associated cold front move across the area. There still remains uncertainty with the timing of the front but it appears the greatest precipitation chances are late Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. Have included a slight chance of Thunderstorms for at least parts of central NC on Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat of stronger storms will likely depend on the timing of the convection which could take advantage of greater instability around the time of peak heating. Highs on Tuesday will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s with notably cooler highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. -Blaes
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 715 AM Thursday...
24 hour TAF period: IFR/LIFR cigs will gradually improve to VFR from west to east through the afternoon. VFR expected everywhere by 00Z Fri. Vsbys should generally be VFR or MVFR, with some brief drops to MVFR possible, mainly at KRWI and KFAY with rain. Rain/showers impacting KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI should slowly move eastward this morning/early aft. The rain should move out of central NC by 00Z Fri. Northerly winds should become more nwly this aft/eve. There will likely be periods of gusts in the 16-22 kt range through early aft, with gusts abating around sunset and winds gradually decreasing to around 5 kts late tonight. -KC
Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through Monday. Gusty winds of 20-30 kts are expected from the W/NW on Fri and from the SW on Sat. -Danco
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KRDU RALEIGHDURHAM INTL,NC | 17 sm | 17 min | N 08G18 | 10 sm | Overcast | 55°F | 46°F | 72% | 29.93 | |
KHRJ HARNETT RGNL JETPORT,NC | 18 sm | 8 min | N 16G20 | 10 sm | Overcast | 54°F | 50°F | 88% | 29.89 | |
KTTA RALEIGH EXEC JETPORT AT SANFORDLEE COUNTY,NC | 19 sm | 8 min | NNW 11G16 | 10 sm | Overcast | 54°F | 50°F | 88% | 29.94 | |
KJNX JOHNSTON RGNL,NC | 20 sm | 8 min | N 15G19 | 10 sm | Overcast | 54°F | 52°F | 94% | 29.90 |
Tide / Current for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:42 AM EDT 0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:55 AM EDT 1.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:34 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 01:20 PM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:08 PM EDT 1.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:42 AM EDT 0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:55 AM EDT 1.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:34 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 01:20 PM EDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:08 PM EDT 1.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet
12 am |
0.2 |
1 am |
0.1 |
2 am |
0.3 |
3 am |
0.7 |
4 am |
1.2 |
5 am |
1.4 |
6 am |
1.4 |
7 am |
1.4 |
8 am |
1.2 |
9 am |
1 |
10 am |
0.7 |
11 am |
0.5 |
12 pm |
0.3 |
1 pm |
0.1 |
2 pm |
0.2 |
3 pm |
0.5 |
4 pm |
0.9 |
5 pm |
1.2 |
6 pm |
1.3 |
7 pm |
1.2 |
8 pm |
1.1 |
9 pm |
0.9 |
10 pm |
0.6 |
11 pm |
0.4 |
Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:41 AM EDT 1.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:35 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 10:06 AM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:54 PM EDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:30 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:01 PM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:57 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:41 AM EDT 1.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 08:35 AM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 10:06 AM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:54 PM EDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:30 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:01 PM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:57 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet
12 am |
1.1 |
1 am |
1.6 |
2 am |
1.9 |
3 am |
1.9 |
4 am |
1.8 |
5 am |
1.6 |
6 am |
1.2 |
7 am |
0.8 |
8 am |
0.5 |
9 am |
0.3 |
10 am |
0.2 |
11 am |
0.3 |
12 pm |
0.7 |
1 pm |
1.3 |
2 pm |
1.6 |
3 pm |
1.6 |
4 pm |
1.6 |
5 pm |
1.4 |
6 pm |
1.1 |
7 pm |
0.7 |
8 pm |
0.5 |
9 pm |
0.3 |
10 pm |
0.2 |
11 pm |
0.3 |
Raleigh/Durham, NC,
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