Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fuquay-Varina, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 110 PM Friday...

* Widely scattered showers with isolated thunder possible through this evening, but most locations will remain dry.

Regional satellite imagery shows multi-layered cloudiness over most of central NC downstream of a low-amplitude trough axis currently positioned over the Middle and Lower MS Valley. SPC Mesoanalysis highlights an abnormally moist and weakly stable airmass is in place characterized by PWAT values ~1.3" and MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg.
This will favor isolated showers/storms possible anywhere within the CWA through the afternoon hours. Some favored areas of greater coverage will be in the eastern Piedmont where a field of agitated cumulus and shallow showers are ongoing, as well as along the inland retreating seabreeze into the Coastal Plain. The only threats will likely be isolated cloud-to-ground lightning and sub-severe wind gusts as low-level lapse rates are relatively weak and DCAPE is very low. Otherwise, expect a seasonably warm evening with continued multi-layered cloudiness.

Tonight, the trough axis upstream will meander eastward and sustain additional convection over the lower Ohio and TN Vallie's into the Southeast. After sunset, this convection should be able to feed off weak synoptic forcing from the low-amplitude trough and some elevated instability, at least initially. As this convective line moves into western NC, model consensus suggests after midnight, it will encounter an unfavorable environment to sustain convection due to poor diurnal timing of its passage. This will result in an overall weakening trend and eventually dissipation over the area through the overnight hours. Lows will generally settle in the low/mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 100 PM Friday...

As the surface low over the Lower Great Lakes region slowly continues to move northeast, the trailing cold font extends down along the Appalachian Mountains and into the Southern Plains. As the trough shifts across the region during the day Saturday expect more isolated to scattered showers and storms. In the afternoon as the back end of the trough begins to exit the region along with the cold front giving it a little more lift, we could see an increase in coverage with showers and storms. Therefore, highest pops are in the late morning to early evening hours. Precip amounts are overall expected to be light varying from a few hundredths in the NW Piedmont to a tenth of an inch over the coast plain. However, there could be a few stronger storms that bring isolated amounts higher than this. The precip will clear in the NW in the late afternoon with the final push of the front exiting the Coastal Plain region shortly after midnight. Temperatures will range from the low 80s in the north to mid 80s south. After the front pushes through NW flow will begin to filter in cooler air with overnight lows in the upper 40s north to upper 50s SE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 130 PM Friday...

With the cold front well offshore by Sunday morning high pressure will be filtering cooler air Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the 70s each day with dew points in the low to mid 40s. As the surface high pressure shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning a weak trough follows it bringing the next chance of showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. After that boundary lifts north a cold front slowly moving into the region will bring showers and storms for the late week time frame with the beach chance for precip in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Temperatures mid to late week will be well above normal with the warmest day expected to be Wednesday with high temps across the region in the upper 80s and warmer spots hitting 90 degrees. As the next weather system inches closer and afternoon precip chances increase temperatures will top out each afternoon in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 730 PM Friday...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible mainly in the Triad overnight. Otherwise, MVFR to IFR cigs will likely develop between 09z and 12z, then persist through around late morning Saturday.

Outlook: Scattered showers and storms will be possible along a cold front as it pushes through the area Saturday afternoon; best chances will be GSO/INT 18-21z, RDU 21-00z, RWI/FAY 22-02z. Gusty pre- frontal southwest winds as well as post-frontal northwest to northerly winds of 15 to 20 kts will be possible.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.