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FXUS62 KRAH 061427 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 930 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

SYNOPSIS
An upper level disturbance and a weak surface low will move offshore early this morning. Surface high pressure will then build into the region this afternoon through early Friday, before moving offshore late. A storm system will move into the region late in the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 930 AM Tuesday...

The forecast this morning was updated to adjust precipitation chances and temperatures. The 12Z GSO sounding showed fairly steep lapse rates just above the surface inversion to about 600 mb (13 kft). Just above the inversion, the lapse rate is nearly dry adiabatic to 850 mb and again from 700 mb to 600 mb. This is all due to the strong upper-trough moving through the area. As a result of the deep lift aloft, no surprise the radar is showing pockets of light to moderate rain across the northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. The freezing level is around 2800 ft so would not be surprised if some graupel falls but most reports have just been rain. The main batch of light rain will mainly reside along the northeast Piedmont to central Coastal Plain, roughly from the Triangle east to Rocky Mount/Goldsboro. As the trough shifts offshore this afternoon to evening, precipitation will end by midday, with cloud cover slowly clearing from west to east.
Meanwhile, sunny skies will be the norm across the western Piedmont/Triad/Sandhills with downslope flow. Gusty WNW winds will pick up later this morning into the afternoon of 10-15 with gusts to 25 mph. Highs were adjusted lower in the NE zones to the mid/upper 40s (6-10 degrees below normal) with cloud cover and CAA. Elsewhere low to mid 50s are expected, warmest across the Sandhills.

Tonight, high pressure will settle into the area from the lower MS valley, clearing skies and generating calm winds. Although some high clouds may move overhead, good radiational cooling should support lows in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 235 AM Wednesday...

Seasonably cool and quiet on Thursday.

High pressure will keep conditions dry and seasonably cool as it traverses across central NC through Thursday afternoon before shifting offshore, returning SW flow at the surface late Thursday into early Friday. Expect mostly sunny and cool Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Lows should be a few degrees milder Thursday night with readings in the 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 252 AM Wednesday...

Friday and Saturday should be relatively tranquil across the region as shortwave ridging aloft builds across the area. Above normal temperatures can be expected during this period with highs in the lower 60s Friday, and in the mid 60s Saturday. Mostly clear skies likely Friday with increasing mid and high clouds Saturday afternoon and evening.

The main focus is on Sunday as a negatively tilted trough sweeps through the Tennessee Valley and into the Southeast. Modest moisture advection ahead of the trough from the Gulf of Mexico should allow 1.5" PW's to arrive prior to daybreak Sunday. As the day progresses, a sharp mid level shortwave trough will sweep through the area while at the same time, central NC will see increasing influence from the right entrance region of a 150+kt 250mb jet. Nearly every member of the GFS and EC ensembles suggest precip during the day Sunday and confidence remains high that much of central NC should see measurable rainfall. Specific amounts are still TBD but most guidance falls in the 0.5 - 1.5" range.

Forecast confidence remains low in determining the potential for severe weather, and specifically: how much instability there will be to work with. Big-picture wise the synoptic setup is favorable for severe weather and there are a few analogs suggesting this potential. While deep layer shear should exceed 50-60kts area-wide, just how much BL destabilization takes place prior to the arrival of the mid level shortwave is very uncertain given the likelihood of extensive cloud cover. In addition, some model scenarios suggest the potential of an initial round of rainfall early Sunday morning well ahead of the shortwave trough. If this were to happen, it would be difficult for the BL to recover prior to the arrival of the main shortwave and the severe weather threat would be limited. For the time being I will maintain at least a slight chance mention of thunder across the area during the day Sunday. By the time we get to Sunday night, subsidence in the wake of the trough will help conditions dry out rapidly with dry weather retuning area-wide by Monday morning.

Monday and Tuesday both look dry and cool with near or slightly below normal temperatures and mostly clear skies.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 640 AM Wednesday...

Generally VFR conditions with periods of mid clouds will linger through 16z. On the backside of the system north winds will become gusty after 13z, with 15-25kt winds expected between 14z and 22z. A period of MVFR CIGS will be possible in the NE including KRWI during the day due to the NNE flow and the proximity of the coastal low that will be departing quickly seaward today. VFR late today through tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to dominate through Saturday. A strong cold front crossing the region will bring likely to categorical rain chances, strong gusty winds and associated sub- VFR restrictions to all of central NC late Saturday night and Sunday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:28 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:18 AM EST     1.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:20 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:41 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:29 PM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Castle Hayne
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Wed -- 12:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:14 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:04 AM EST     1.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:20 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 01:27 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:15 PM EST     1.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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