Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Engelhard, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 3 AM Tues...A weak cold front is currently moving through ENC, with winds shifting to the north behind it. Mild temps continue with readings in the upper 60s to low 70s under mostly clear skies. Some cooler and drier air moving in behind the front will allow for lows to the reach the low mid 60s inland, and upper 60s along the coast.

Weak northeast flow will continue today with high pressure nosing in from the north. Despite this, low level thicknesses remain mostly unchanged and similar temperatures to the last few days are expected with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. It'll be a bit cooler along the OBX with onshore flow, with temps remaining mostly in the low to mid 70s.

Increasing late afternoon convergence and an uptick in moisture from the south may lead to a few widely scattered showers across Onslow and Duplin counties, but otherwise it will be dry through early this evening.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 3 AM Tues...

*KEY MESSAGE* - A warm front lifting through Eastern NC late tonight into early tomorrow morning will bring the threat of severe weather, including the potential for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes

Low level flow will begin to veer this evening as a warm front approaches from the west and lifts through ENC overnight. Shower activity will be widely scattered early tonight, but will increase after midnight as forcing increases with the warm front. Instability will also increase after midnight as SE flow increases, and could reach 1000-2000 J/kg by early tomorrow morning across most of ENC. Increasingly backed low level flow will overlap (at last partially) with this instability as SRHs values increase to 200-400 m2/s2. All this will occur under deep layer shear of at least 50 kts, which will be more than enough to support updraft organization and bring the threat of supercells. There will be a threat of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes IF instability can properly develop in the WAA regime, with the tornado threat contingent on surface based instability developing.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 0345 Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms possible mid-week

- Abnormally cool and dry late-week

Wednesday starts with the stalled front lifting back north as a warm front, currently forecast to be extending E-W across Cape Hatteras. This will occur as strong mid- level height falls overspread the region associated with a potent upper level wave translating east from the Ohio Valley to New England. This will also support the development of a seasonably deep SFC low which is forecast to move Eward across the Carolinas on Wednesday.
This will be followed by a cold front Wednesday night. Strong elevated moisture transport ahead of the deepening low will lead to a deepening layer of moisture and increasing instability into Wednesday. Meanwhile, a strong mid/upper level jet will overspread the region, which will provide increased deep layer shear and increased lift (via jet exit region dynamics). With widespread cloudcover and the potential for muted daytime heating, deterministic guidance suggests MLCAPE of around 1000j/kg. By May's standards, this isn't all that impressive.
However, given the strong flow aloft, deep layer shear of 50kt is forecast, setting the stage for a more anomalous overlap of shear/instability combo. Strong forcing plus a notable shear/instability combo suggests some severe weather potential.
Also concerning is the potential for tornadoes along and near the warm front with low level SRH values on the order of 500-750 m^2s^-2. South of the warm front the FA will be briefly warm sectored opening the door for more isolated cells with supercell potential. Silver lining of this system with the upper level support is lacking with mostly zonal flow in the 250mb levels with departing low to NE and the digging trough remaining to the W of the Apps until late WED night at the earliest. This lowers the potential for stormtop height and therefore the hail potential. Severe weather aside, this system should provide a good opportunity for widespread rainfall portions of ENC. For now, the strongest signal for heavy rainfall is focused along the HWY 264 corridor, which is also the same areas that saw heavy rainfall over the past several days. This may allow at least a low-end flooding risk to develop.

In the wake of the mid-week system, an anomalous upper low is forecast to setup over New England. Within this regime, a persistent northwesterly flow aloft and offshore flow at the surface should support several days of below normal temperatures and notably drier conditions, especially behind the reinforcing cold front that will cross through the FA Thursday, which we are carrying SChc- Chc PoPs for FROPA, but no thunder until front reaches more instability parked over the GStream. Guidance suggests highs only in the low- mid 70s during this time, with lows potentially bottoming out in the low-mid 50s. Of note, some of the coldest guidance suggests lows may fall into the upper 40s in the typically colder spots away from bodies of water. Despite the drier airmass in place, afternoon heating and weak surface boundary passages may lead to a few diurnally- driven showers.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Morning/...
As of 3 AM Tues...VFR conditions are present this morning across the airspace as a weak, but dry, cold front crosses ENC, and drier high pressure builds in behind it. Mostly clear skies and occasional high based clouds are expected today, but by late this afternoon some lower based mid level clouds may form across the southern coastal plain.

Tonight, a warm front will lift northward through the airspace and bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Ceilings will likely fall to at least MVFR early tomorrow morning before sunrise from west to east across ENC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 0400 Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased risk of TSRA and sub VFR conditions mid-week

A dry airmass should support mostly VFR conditions early week.
However, cloudcover is expected to be increasing, with a few SHRA possible Tuesday. A more substantial surge of moisture is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as a potent storm system moves through the Carolinas. This system will bring an increased risk of TSRA and sub VFR conditions until the first of two cold fronts crosses the area WED night followed by a weaker, reinforcing cold front Thursday. Prevailing VFR returns late this week.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tues...Decent boating conditions will continue today and into tonight as high pressure builds into the area. By late tonight a warm front will lift through the waters with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms expected along with strengthening SE winds. Winds may briefly gust to 25 kts along the coastal waters at the end of the period, but there is not enough confidence that these winds will be sustained long enough for a SCA to be issued.

Winds this morning will be NE at 15-20 kts behind a weak cold front. By this afternoon winds will veer to the east at 10-15 kts as a warm front approaches. Tonight, the warm front will lift north through the waters and winds will increase to ESE at 15-20 kts after midnight. Winds increase further around sunrise to SE 20-25 kts for at least a couple of hours. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through tonight and then increase to 3-5 ft by early tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 0435 Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong storm system to bring poor marine conditions mid-week

Good boating conditions are expected early week thanks to relatively light winds and reduced seas. Conditions will deteriorate mid- week as a strong storm system moves through with building winds and seas, and an increased risk of thunderstorms. Ahead of the first cold front Tuesday night and WED, strong SWerly winds 15-20G25kt WED with seas 4-7ft. Storms along and near the warm front lifting Nward through the waters will have a strong waterspout potential. A secondary reinforcing cold front crosses Thursday night/early Fri morning with little fanfare. Winds become generally Werly 10-15kt Thursday into the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.