Monday, September28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:53PM Monday September 28, 2020 11:06 PM EDT (03:06 UTC) Moonrise 4:43PMMoonset 2:41AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 952 Pm Edt Mon Sep 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning...
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers late.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves choppy. A chance of tstms. Showers likely in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield, NC
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location: 35.67, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 290140 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 940 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A slow moving cold front will approach the area tomorrow and move offshore Wednesday. Behind that, cooler high pressure is expected to build over the area late week and next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 930 PM Mon . Light shra over srn tier have diminished and removed pops for a few hrs then expecting increasing chcs espcly srn tier aft 06z.

Prev disc . Flow remains very weak this afternoon behind a weak short wave, and ahead of a deepening longwave trough. A sea breeze has developed, but hasn't produced any showers as of yet due to decent dry air in the mid and upper levels. There could be a few sprinkles over the area as decaying showers continue to move northward over the area from SC. As the deep upper trough advances closer to the area overnight, stronger southerly flow will develop and advect in better moisture throughout the air column. PWATs will climb over 2", and some CAPE will develop along the coast and offshore, allowing for more widespread convection to blossom closer to sunrise tomorrow. Temperatures will likely hit lows early tonight before widespread cloud cover moves in and southerly flow strengthens. Have lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, with temps steady or rising a few degrees by daybreak.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. As of 345 PM Mon . A robust upper level trough with a slow moving and strong cold front will continue to approach from the west tomorrow. WAA will continue ahead of the front, and expanding modest instability across the area will compensate for weaker forcing, allowing for periods of heavy downpours and thunderstorms throughout the day. With PWATs surging to 2.3", some areas of flooding will be possible if storms train over the same areas, but lack of a focus for convection will limit the flash flood threat. A low end severe threat is also possible through the day as shear increases to 40 kts or so in the afternoon and evening, combined with MUCAPE values remaining around 1000-1500 J/kg.

High temps will depend on breaks in the clouds, as low level thicknesses would support very warm conditions. Have highs around 80, but some areas could get close to the mid 80s if there are any persistent breaks of sunshine.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 4 PM Mon . Unsettled with temps near or slightly above climo through mid next week, then cooler and drier late next week into the weekend.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday . A slow moving cold front with possible embedded area of low pressure will be moving into the coastal plain early Tuesday night. Hi-res radar depictions show a broken line of heavy rain and thunderstorms moving slowly across the area Tuesday night, with the potential for flash flooding and severe weather. A focused, and slow moving band of very heavy rain, enhanced by the high PWAT environment has the potential to drop a quick 1-3 inches of rain as it moves across the area. Depending on antecedent rainfall from Tuesday, this may be enough to cause flash flooding in some areas. Also, strong damaging winds gusts or even an isolated tornado are possible overnight, as forecast soundings indicate a long skinny CAPE profile, in a strong dynamic environment . though weak lapse rates will be a limiting factor.

The band of heavy rain and thunderstorms associated with the cold front should be off the Outer Banks by mid morning Wednesday, with cooler conditions moving in behind it. Latest trends indicate a much drier forecast, with just some scattered showers possible during the day Wednesday, drying conditions Wednesday night.

Thursday through Sunday . Drier and cooler air will filter in behind the front late week into next weekend with troughing aloft and sfc high building in. Exception may be Friday, as parent upper trough will finally push eastward towards the Eastern Seaboard and force a weak cold front through E NC. Moisture will be limited with this front however as GOM will be cut off from the flow, and therefore retained a silent 20% pop in the grids. Highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s this period.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term /through Tue/ . As of 630 PM Mon . Expect VFR to dominate thru evening with just some isold very light shra or sprinkles expected. Later tonight expect grad increasing moisture with shra increasing in cvrg with cigs lowering to MVFR. Sct to numerous shra and a few tsra will then cont on and off thru the day Tue. Cigs will likely bounce some but for now showing pred MVFR . a few pds of IFR poss as heavier precip crosses. S winds will likely gust 15 to 20 kt during the aftn ahead of approaching cold front.

Long Term /Tuesday Night through Saturday/ . As of 4 PM Mon . Sub- VFR chances will be around Tue night into Wed as widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms affect the region ahead of a slow moving cold front. VFR and mo sunny returns by Thu.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tomorrow Night/ . As of 930 PM Mon . S to SE winds 10 to 15 kt N and 5 to 10 kts S currently. Winds fcst to reach 10 to 15 kts all wtrs overnight with seas 2 to 4 ft.

Prev disc . Decent boating conditions expected through tomorrow, but then winds and seas will increase ahead of a cold front. SCA's have been issued for all waters expect the inland rivers beginning tomorrow evening. Winds will continue to be light tonight, and then increase to S 10-15 kts by early tomorrow morning, while seas remain 2-4 ft. Then tomorrow afternoon winds will increase to 15-20 kts with seas becoming 3-5 ft.

Right ahead of the cold front, winds will increase sharply tomorrow night, becoming 20-30 kts, with gusts 35 kts or more. There is the possibility of a brief period of Gale Force winds upwards of 40 kts, but confidence is low as of now. Seas in response will build to 6-10 ft overnight.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/ . As of 4 PM Mon . Behind a cold front Wednesday, conditions will begin to improve with winds becoming westerly at 10-15 kts, with seas subsiding below SCA levels by the evening. Thereafter, winds stay mostly 10-15 kts with seas 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for NCZ204-205. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . RF/SGK SHORT TERM . SGK LONG TERM . TL/SGK AVIATION . RF/TL MARINE . RF/TL/SGK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 30 mi55 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 76°F1013.7 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 38 mi49 min SSE 1 G 1.9 75°F 77°F1014.1 hPa
44095 40 mi41 min 74°F3 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi49 min S 8 G 9.9 74°F 1013.5 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 41 mi41 min 74°F3 ft
44086 42 mi54 min 74°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi41 min 73°F3 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC27 mi12 minS 410.00 miFair73°F69°F90%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmSE5SW8SE6SE7S7S6S4S3S5S5
1 day agoNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3NW4NW4--CalmNW6NW6N5N6SW6S5SE5CalmCalmSW5SW5
2 days agoSE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Old House Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:22 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:28 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Davis Slough, North Carolina
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Davis Slough
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:53 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:59 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:59 PM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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