Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:26PM Sunday March 29, 2020 7:37 PM EDT (23:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:57AMMoonset 11:25PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ131 Alligator River- 653 Pm Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight. Showers.
Wed..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves rough. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw around 10 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, diminishing to light chop after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield, NC
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location: 35.67, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 292227 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 627 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A dry cold front will push through tonight. An area of low pressure will move eastward to the south of the area Tuesday night and strengthen well offshore Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area late this week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. As of 620 PM Sun . Some convection has fired well to the NW just ahead of cold front. Bulk of guidance shows this either staying to the N or dissipating, will cont isold pops NW tier few more hrs with mainly dry wx expected.

Prev disc . Cold front is draped SW to NE from CLT to the Triad late this afternoon, characterized by a bkn line of moderate CU growth. The region is still convection free however, despite strong shear and an unstable atms. The limiting factor for convection is decent capping in place in the low/mid levels, and this will remain throug the rest of today into the evening. Cannot rule out a stray storm, esp north of hwy 264, but opted no higher than a 20 pop across the nwrn tier early this evening. Otherwise, the cold front will move through late tonight bringing mainly just some sct to bkn mid/high clouds, with continued mild conditions. Lows range from around 60 interior to the mid 60s coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. As of 330 PM Sun . Much drier air mass arrives as winds turn wrly and efficient downsloping flow in place with steep low level lapse rates in place. Thicknesses drop some, but temps remain quite warm in the low 80s for most areas, still well above climo for late March. Relative humidities will be quite low, in the 20s percentile by afternoon with the combo of temps in the 80s and TD's only in the 35-40 degree range. Winds will not be too strong however, but residents should still take precautions if burning, due to the very dry airmass in place.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As 3 AM Sun . High pressure will briefly build across the area Monday. Low pressure will lift along the NC coast Tuesday night, pushing offshore Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area late week. Another front will approach the area late next weekend. Above normal temps will continue Monday, then returning to near climo Tue through the period.

Tuesday through Wednesday . Miller type B cyclogenesis is expected on Tue over South Carolina with the parent low tracking across the Ohio Valley. This is response to a potent mid level trough moving across the Midwest US. The developing low is forecast to track northeast along the NC coast Tue night into Wed then continue to deepen Wed afternoon off of the Mid- Atlantic coast. Widespread rainfall is expected late Tue afternoon into Wednesday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Tuesday night with PWATs approaching 1.25". Increased pops to categorical, with WPC showing 0.75-1.25" qpf amts. Bulk of precip should be ending by late Wed morning, with lighter wrap around moisture from the offshore low possible across the area through Wed night. Strong winds will develop late Tue night, peaking Wednesday, strongest along the coast. Minor water level rises will be possible, especially for oceanside locations north of Cape Hatteras, along with rough surf. Low level thickness values, increasing clouds and NE/E flow support highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s Tue, and a few degrees cooler Wed, 55-60 deg.

Thursday through Sunday . High pressure will build in from the west late week into the first part of the weekend, resulting in dry weather and moderating temps near climo. The next frontal system will approach the area late next weekend. Highs generally 65-70 deg inland and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, and overnight lows 45-55 deg.

AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Short Term /through Monday/ . As of 620 PM Sun . VFR will cont to dominate. Weak and generally dry cold front wl cross tonight with mostly sct to bkn high clouds with poss few high based cu thru the evening. Any convection will be very isold and mainly N of region. Current gusty SW winds shld diminish with loss of heating with winds shifting to more NW to W behind front later tonight with poss some gusts 15 to 20 kts Mon.

Long Term /Monday night through Thursday/ . As of 3 AM Sun . Pred VFR conditions expected through Tuesday morning. Developing low pressure will approach the area from the southwest late Tue producing widespread rain and occasional sub-VFR conditions. Best chance for widespread sub-VFR conditions will be Tue evening into Wed, with periods of IFR likely Tue night. Conditions should be improving through the day Wed, though gusty northerly winds expected. VFR likely to return Wed night as drier air moves into the area.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Mon/ . As of 620 PM Sun . Pre frontal SW winds will peak 20 to 25 kt this evening with cont SCA Pamlico Sound and central and srn wtrs. As front crosses winds will shift to NW to N and subside to 10 to 20 kt late tonight and early Mon before shifting back to WSW later Mon. Seas will peak 5 to 7 ft this evening then subside to 2 to 4 ft Mon.

Long Term /Monday night through Thursday/ . As of 3 AM Sun . Confidence is low but could see a brief period of SCA conditions develop Monday night into Tue morning, as sfc low strengthens to the north and gradient tightens between low and approaching system. N/NE winds will increase to 15-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. Tue ahead of developing low pressure to the southwest, NE winds 15-20 kt will veer to the E 10-15 kt. An area of low pressure will lift along the NC coast Tuesday night and strengthen off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday. Strong N/NE winds 20-30 kt will develop late Tue night, peaking Wed and gradually subsiding Wed night. Confidence is increasing that waters will see a period of gale force winds Wed. Seas will build Tue night, peaking at 6-13 ft Wed. Winds and seas will be gradually subsiding Thursday as high pressure builds over the area. NW winds 10-20 kt subsiding to 10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 4-6 ft by afternoon.

CLIMATE. Record High temperatures possible today 3/29

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 88/1985 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 79/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 84/2012 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1910 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1985 (KNCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . RF/TL SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . CQD AVIATION . RF/CQD MARINE . RF/CQD CLIMATE . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 30 mi56 min S 19 G 21 66°F 68°F1011.8 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 38 mi50 min SW 18 G 24 69°F 1013.2 hPa
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 40 mi50 min SSW 18 G 22 76°F 1009.9 hPa
FRFN7 40 mi98 min 3 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 41 mi38 min 57°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 48 mi38 min 56°F3 ft

Wind History for Oregon Inlet Marina, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manteo / Dare County Regional, NC27 mi43 minSSW 1210.00 miFair70°F63°F81%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMQI

Wind History from MQI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Old House Channel, North Carolina
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Old House Channel
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:09 AM EDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:01 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:32 PM EDT     0.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.60.50.30.20.10.10.10.20.40.50.60.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.30.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Davis Slough, North Carolina
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Davis Slough
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:32 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:07 PM EDT     0.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:27 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.