Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McMinnville, TN

UPDATE
Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

There has been little change regarding the forecast for today, although it does appear that the oncoming event will end sooner than previously thought, with the activity winding down by this evening most places. We expect showers and storms to begin developing by late morning as we find ourselves caught between a surface boundary entering Middle Tennessee from the north AND a storm system tracking northeastward through MS and AL and into the Appalachians by this evening. It does appear that instability will increase considerably as the surface heats up. The 05Z HRRR forecast sounding for BNA valid at 18Z, for example, gives us a SBCAPE of nearly 2,800 J/kg and a Lifted Index of -7. Mid-level lapse rates are somewhat anemic at 5.7 C/km, although there does appear to be an influx of dry air intrusion above 700 mb. Low- level wind shear is negligible. However, Precipitable Water looks to increase to ~1.9", which would put us above the 90th percentile climatologically. Thus, there is definitely the potential for very high rainfall rates with the stronger storms. So the expected impacts are the same as before. Again, the only real change is an earlier ending to this event. Most of Friday and also most of Saturday look to be dry and nominally cooler.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Wednesday's gusty south winds brought very warm, muggy conditions into the Mid State, and the moist atmospheric conditions will increase through Thursday. An active frontal system dropping from the Ohio Valley and remnants from Tropical Storm Arthur will come together to bring a high chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. We remain under a low-end risk for severe storms with gusty winds along with a low-end risk for local flooding from heavy rainfall.

Model forecasts over the past couple of days have been trending faster with these systems, and at this point it looks like the front will push through the area late Thursday night into very early Friday morning giving us dry conditions for daytime Friday and a very nice, comfortable Friday evening.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Saturday should be a pretty good day. It will be warm but humidity levels should stay tolerable. Return flow will be developing quickly, so a few late day showers or storms cannot be ruled out over the southwest.

As we go through Sunday and Monday, a fast moving low pressure and front will bring a high chance for showers and a few storms.
There are a lot of model differences in timing at this point, but it would not be surprising to see at least a low-end severe threat Sunday and/or Monday with this system. After Monday, on and off shower and storm chances will occur through the rest of next week as a series of disturbances move across the region.
Otherwise, next week should bring typical June warmth and humidity with lows mostly in the 60s and highs mainly in the 80s to near 90.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

We won't have to concern ourselves with early-morning radiation fog with winds staying up overnight. Thursday is going to be a bit messy with a surface boundary coming through Middle Tennessee.
Look for showers to begin developing by late morning, with thunderstorm probabilities increasing during the afternoon. Winds will diminish by 00Z once the surface boundary comes through, with showers also tapering off during the evening. Look for MVFR ceilings to develop by 06Z and radiation fog also starting to form in some areas by then.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 88 68 85 64 / 80 50 0 0 Clarksville 87 64 84 62 / 80 30 0 0 Crossville 82 65 80 58 / 70 60 10 0 Columbia 87 68 85 62 / 70 50 10 0 Cookeville 84 66 81 60 / 80 70 0 0 Jamestown 84 64 80 57 / 90 80 10 0 Lawrenceburg 84 68 84 62 / 80 40 10 0 Murfreesboro 87 69 86 62 / 70 50 10 0 Waverly 86 66 84 63 / 80 40 0 0

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.