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FXUS64 KOHX 010145 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 745 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 727 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Regional radar imagery this evening shows rain spreading into West Tennessee with some radar echoes showing up aloft in our southwest counties. 00Z OHX sounding indicates the lower atmosphere remains very dry across Middle Tennessee, so it will take until closer to or after midnight before rain can saturate the low levels and reach the surface in our area. After midnight, rain will spread across the entire cwa with pops rising to near 100 percent, before decreasing from west to east Friday morning.
Rainfall totals are still anticipated to be around one half inch or less before the first round of rain ends Friday morning.

As far as temperatures, they remain in the upper 40s and 50s this hour due to the ongoing WAA. However, dewpoints are still in the 20s, so as rain falls into the dry surface layer overnight, temps will quickly wet-bulb down into the 40s and hover there.
Finally, surface winds have decreased this evening after being gusty during the day today, but winds will ramp up again overnight as the core of a 60+ kt 850mb jet moves overhead. A very strong low level temperature inversion and widespread rain will keep the strongest winds from mixing down to the surface, but still anticipating some gusts of 30 to 35 mph at times towards sunrise.
Forecast has all of this covered well and only made some minor tweaks.

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

High pressure continues to push east out of our area and we are starting to see mid to high level clouds build in ahead of an approaching trough. Winds this afternoon are gusting up to 25 mph and a dry air mass remains in place with afternoon humidity in the 20 percent range. These winds and low humidity are binging elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Winds will let up this evening and we will see humidity increase as the upper level trough starts to lift out of TX.

Our quiet weather tonight will be replaced by breezy conditions along with rain. As the trough lifts we will see a low level jet increase becoming 50-70 knots at 850 mb. There is a strong inversion and for the most part these strong winds will stay aloft but given the pressure gradient we will see breezy winds overnight into tomorrow morning, wind gusts 30-35 mph can be expected and if rain mixes down any of the stronger winds we could see isolated gusts up to 40 mph. The strengthening low level jet will bring increased warm air advection and widespread rain to the area. Rain will push in from west to east mainly after midnight.
Thunderstorm chances look to remain very low but there is some elevated instability above the inversion and few lightning strikes can't be ruled out but overall unlikely.

Widespread rain will be tapering off during the morning with some showers lingering into the afternoon. Rain totals are overall looking light over the area with the better dynamics and QPF staying to our north and west. Rain totals for our area through Friday morning are looking to be 0.35-0.65" in the northwest tapering off to less than 0.25" in the southeast.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

The forecast becomes a bit more uncertain as we head into Saturday. As the trough pulls away it will put a boundary across the region. Ahead of this boundary we will see good Gulf moisture along with warm air advection. This will bring periods of light to moderate rain. The uncertainty is on where we see this boundary set up. The EC ensemble is further south and east with the trough to our northwest placing this boundary mainly to the east of our area, the GFS ensemble is further north and west placing the boundary over Middle TN. Confidence in high on little rain in the northwest Saturday but confidence in low on rain totals for the eastern half of the area. Right now QPF is looking to be 0.40-0.90 in the southwest falling off to less than 0.10" as you work northwest.

The long wave trough over the Great Lakes will start to push east Sunday into Monday and that will push a cold front through our area. This will keep showers in the forecast for Sunday with things drying out for Monday. We will then be on the edge of long wave troughing over the Northeast through the middle of the week.
The impacts will be small with things looking to remain dry.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR conditions currently, which are expected to deterioate overnight. SHRA will move into the area, bring along low cigs after SHRA has started along with temp vis reductions. Expect most to fall to at least MVFR by 12Z, with several TAF sites dropping to IFR by 15Z. Cigs likely will not return to VFR by the end of the current TAF period.

S/SE winds are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will begin to become gusty again overnight and remain gusty through the day tomorrow. Gusts upwards of 25 kts are possible, especially tomorrow morning. While not enough confidence to include, there is a low chance of LLWS at all terminals between 09Z and 15Z worth mentioning here (WS020/19045KT).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 45 66 55 63 / 100 80 50 60 Clarksville 44 65 49 60 / 100 70 30 40 Crossville 40 58 51 61 / 90 90 70 80 Columbia 44 65 56 64 / 90 80 60 70 Cookeville 44 61 54 62 / 100 90 60 70 Jamestown 41 59 52 62 / 90 90 60 70 Lawrenceburg 45 64 57 64 / 90 90 70 70 Murfreesboro 44 65 56 65 / 100 90 60 70 Waverly 42 65 49 60 / 100 70 30 30

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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