Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McMinnville, TN
July 3, 2024 12:44 AM CDT (05:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:33 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 3:02 AM Moonset 6:26 PM |
FXUS64 KOHX 030126 AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 826 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 816 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
What a difference 24 hours makes. Temperatures and dew points at this time yesterday were about 15 degrees cooler than right now.
It's pretty warm and muggy out there still and it's going to be like this for at least the next few days as upper ridging covers the southeast US. If there's any good news, rain chances will creep back into the forecast tomorrow afternoon and while not everyone will see rain, some could get relief from the blistering heat, at least for a little while. The Heat Advisory for tomorrow continues to be in effect from noon until 7 pm, so please take the necessary precautions to protect yourself and loved ones from heat illness.
As far as the rain chances, like I said, they're pretty low.
However, those that see storms will experience heavy rain and lightning. Keep in mind, summertime storms always carry the risk of strong to severe winds (40-60 mph), so pay attention to the skies if you have outdoor plans. The safe play: just seek shelter if storms are near.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Started off today much cooler than we've been experiencing lately.
Unfortunately, the uncomfortable heat and high humidity will be making a return later today, and will be sticking with us through Friday. An upper level ridge has already started building in over the southeast and return flow will bring ample moisture back into in the area. The warmer air temps combined with the higher dew point temps will send heat index values into the 105+ range Wednesday.
With that, a heat advisory will be in effect during the day tomorrow from 1pm-7pm. A wave passing to our north will bring the chance for a few scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
Models show instability values reaching into the 1500 J/kg range, so a few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible. PWAT values will be near 2", so very heavy rain will be likely with any thunderstorms that develop. As we've recently seen, some localized flash flooding could occur under these storms. On the plus side, mid-level lapse rates are quite low with values near 5.5 C/km. Shear is also on the lower side with values near 15 kts.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
As we move into the 4th of July, the intense heat and high humidity will once again likely warrant another heat advisory. Lower heights resulting from a strong upper-level low over the midwest will scoot over Tennessee during the day Thursday, bringing an increased and more widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon. This could help keep temperatures a bit cooler for some, thus we're holding off on issuing any heat products for now.
SPC has introduced a marginal risk for the majority of the area Thursday. Instability looks greater and there will be better forcing with the shortwave passing aloft over our north, so a few strong to potentially severe storms will again be possible. Models continue to show coverage greatly decreasing by Thursday night, so hopefully that continues to be the trend as not to be a damper on any Independence Day plans.
As we get into Friday, it's likely going to be a rainy and overcast day for the most part as a cold front pushes through the area. I use the term cold front loosely as temperatures will remain near or at 90 degrees this weekend. We will have a brief drying out period Saturday afternoon through Sunday before rain chances return Monday and Tuesday. The upper-air pattern to start the week features a trough moving in from the Great Plains that will keep rain chances in the forecast each day to start the new work week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR conditions will continue for the taf period. Winds will remain southerly from 6 to 12 kts. Clear skies are expected tonight with scattered cumulus clouds Wednesday. An isolated afternoon thunderstorm may form, but probability is too low to include in tafs at this time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 77 97 78 95 / 0 20 40 70 Clarksville 75 95 76 92 / 0 20 60 70 Crossville 67 89 70 88 / 0 10 40 70 Columbia 75 96 75 96 / 0 20 30 60 Cookeville 72 91 74 89 / 0 10 40 70 Jamestown 70 90 72 88 / 0 10 50 70 Lawrenceburg 74 95 75 94 / 0 20 30 50 Murfreesboro 75 97 76 96 / 0 20 30 70 Waverly 76 96 76 93 / 0 20 50 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Bedford-Cannon- Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston- Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry- Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne- Williamson-Wilson.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 826 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 816 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
What a difference 24 hours makes. Temperatures and dew points at this time yesterday were about 15 degrees cooler than right now.
It's pretty warm and muggy out there still and it's going to be like this for at least the next few days as upper ridging covers the southeast US. If there's any good news, rain chances will creep back into the forecast tomorrow afternoon and while not everyone will see rain, some could get relief from the blistering heat, at least for a little while. The Heat Advisory for tomorrow continues to be in effect from noon until 7 pm, so please take the necessary precautions to protect yourself and loved ones from heat illness.
As far as the rain chances, like I said, they're pretty low.
However, those that see storms will experience heavy rain and lightning. Keep in mind, summertime storms always carry the risk of strong to severe winds (40-60 mph), so pay attention to the skies if you have outdoor plans. The safe play: just seek shelter if storms are near.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Started off today much cooler than we've been experiencing lately.
Unfortunately, the uncomfortable heat and high humidity will be making a return later today, and will be sticking with us through Friday. An upper level ridge has already started building in over the southeast and return flow will bring ample moisture back into in the area. The warmer air temps combined with the higher dew point temps will send heat index values into the 105+ range Wednesday.
With that, a heat advisory will be in effect during the day tomorrow from 1pm-7pm. A wave passing to our north will bring the chance for a few scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
Models show instability values reaching into the 1500 J/kg range, so a few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible. PWAT values will be near 2", so very heavy rain will be likely with any thunderstorms that develop. As we've recently seen, some localized flash flooding could occur under these storms. On the plus side, mid-level lapse rates are quite low with values near 5.5 C/km. Shear is also on the lower side with values near 15 kts.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
As we move into the 4th of July, the intense heat and high humidity will once again likely warrant another heat advisory. Lower heights resulting from a strong upper-level low over the midwest will scoot over Tennessee during the day Thursday, bringing an increased and more widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon. This could help keep temperatures a bit cooler for some, thus we're holding off on issuing any heat products for now.
SPC has introduced a marginal risk for the majority of the area Thursday. Instability looks greater and there will be better forcing with the shortwave passing aloft over our north, so a few strong to potentially severe storms will again be possible. Models continue to show coverage greatly decreasing by Thursday night, so hopefully that continues to be the trend as not to be a damper on any Independence Day plans.
As we get into Friday, it's likely going to be a rainy and overcast day for the most part as a cold front pushes through the area. I use the term cold front loosely as temperatures will remain near or at 90 degrees this weekend. We will have a brief drying out period Saturday afternoon through Sunday before rain chances return Monday and Tuesday. The upper-air pattern to start the week features a trough moving in from the Great Plains that will keep rain chances in the forecast each day to start the new work week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR conditions will continue for the taf period. Winds will remain southerly from 6 to 12 kts. Clear skies are expected tonight with scattered cumulus clouds Wednesday. An isolated afternoon thunderstorm may form, but probability is too low to include in tafs at this time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 77 97 78 95 / 0 20 40 70 Clarksville 75 95 76 92 / 0 20 60 70 Crossville 67 89 70 88 / 0 10 40 70 Columbia 75 96 75 96 / 0 20 30 60 Cookeville 72 91 74 89 / 0 10 40 70 Jamestown 70 90 72 88 / 0 10 50 70 Lawrenceburg 74 95 75 94 / 0 20 30 50 Murfreesboro 75 97 76 96 / 0 20 30 70 Waverly 76 96 76 93 / 0 20 50 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Bedford-Cannon- Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston- Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry- Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne- Williamson-Wilson.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMQY
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMQY
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMQY
Wind History graph: MQY
(wind in knots)
Northern Alabama,
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