Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Claremont, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1015 AM: A stacked low pres system will slowly drift NE across the Lower MS Valley region today. A plume of subtropical moisture will remain over the CWA thru evening, associated with the LLJ into this system. In-situ CAD is in place but no obvious movement in its boundary has occurred. Band of widespread precip over the eastern CWA attm will gradually shift north thru early afternoon. Somewhat of a dry slot exists on WV imagery over our western zones, but low-level upglide has been sufficient to keep abundant low cloud cover within it, as well as scattered showers/t-storms. That should continue thru the remainder of the day even as the aforementioned precip band advects out of the area. So, in general, no change to expectations; kept categorical PoP over most of the area thru the remainder of the daytime hours, although allowed chances to dip to likely range as dry slot covers more of the area.

The wedge is likely to begin to erode as rain rates taper and perhaps as some peeks of sunshine allow some warming and destabilization. Lapse rates aloft aren't great but remain steady thru evening but SBCAPE should increase with near-sfc warming. Convective (higher) rain rates and even a non-zero tornado threat thus are expected to develop. There has been a decreasing trend of QPF along the Escarpment in the CAMs, but hints that bands of training cells outside the mountains may occur. Of course, the CAMs disagree on where these bands will set up, but the HRRR has been doing the best with this event so far, and shows one axis of heaviest rainfall east of I-77 and into central NC, and the other over NE GA into the western Upstate. These amounts still look to be in the 1-3" range, which should be under flash flood guidance, unless locally higher amounts occurs. Meanwhile, the 3-5" across the southeasterly upslope areas near the Blue Ridge Escarpment still looks similar to the previous forecasts. So with all that said, no changes will be made to the Flash Flood Watch. The other concern today will be the threat for isolated tornadoes this aftn during peak instability. The 00z HRRR members generally don't show strong updraft helicity streaks. But with 0-1 km shear possibly 25-30 kt and helicity 150-200 m2/s2, stronger cells may show low-level rotation and could spun short-lived weak tornadoes. The threat looks to be greatest roughly along and west of the I-26 corridor in the Piedmont today, based on where the expected stronger convection will be. Otherwise, it will be another rainy, cloudy day, but with temps slightly warmer than yesterday, thanks to the eroding wedge. Still several degrees below normal.

Tonight, the upper low will pivot toward the NE, providing decent upper divergence atop the forecast. The forcing should keep scattered to numerous showers across the CWFA, but with a dry slot working in from the west, PWATs should come down some. Also, the low-level jet will weaken and begin to veer to more due south over the CWFA, helping weaken the upslope component. However, with additional rain, could see a lingering flash flood threat thru the overnight in the Watch area, as rainfall totals continue to accumulate. Lows will be mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 338 AM Monday: We will continue to deal with the passage of the vertically-stacked low pressure system through the middle of the week. However, by daybreak Tuesday, the bulk of the forcing will have moved off to the northeast, leaving us with little more than lingering weak low level convergence and some decent thermodynamics. Essentially this portends a transition to a diurnally-enhanced convective precip regime with rather high precip probs in the afternoon because of the colder air aloft associated with the upper system allowing for steeper lapse rates and decent buoyancy with some daytime heating. But, as the convection consumes the bouyancy and we lose the heating, probs drop back down after sunset both Tuesday and Wednesday. The threat for severe storms appears to be low both days. Temps will undergo a gradual warmup toward normal thru Wednesday. Guidance ultimately pivots a trof axis across the region on Wednesday as the old upper low opens up over the upper Ohio Valley region late in the day. With that trof axis to our east Wednesday night, dry air finally returns from the NW overnight, giving us a short break.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 236 AM Monday: With the old system finally out of the way, a quick transition is expected on Thursday to something more summerlike for the bulk of the medium range. Upper ridging builds in from the west, raising temps above normal, while helping to suppress deep convection, so only a token slight chance will be included over the mtns. The ridge axis should cross the region Thursday night while dampening, meanwhile an upper anticyclone becomes established across the Gulf. Thereafter, we're under a belt of fast-moving westerlies through the weekend, featuring an old frontal boundary laid out by a passing northern stream low which should help to focus diurnally-enhanced convection through the period. We essentially end up in what would be a potential MCS track, with plenty of instability to fuel convective storms and enough shear to organize them. There's a good chance that we will see some kind of organized severe weather threat at least once in the period from Friday thru Sunday, most likely Friday/Friday night according to some of the machine learning/AI guidance. We'll still be under the MCS track into Monday, but by that time the pattern will be undergoing amplification with a strong ridge building to our west. Thus, each day will get a decent chance of convective storms, perhaps more likely on the west side of the mtns, and temps on the order of 5-10 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread showers across the area thru most of the TAF period. A lingering wedge should generally keep the cigs stable thru this morning, but vsby may fluctuate due the showers. The wedge is gradually eroding, with winds shifting to SE and perhaps some improvement of the cigs to low MVFR. There is below average confidence on how the cigs will behave, as deeper convection develops across the area, and may mix out some of the clouds, only for them to drop again during lulls. The peak daytime heating ours of mid aftn thru early evening looks to be the time most likely to see some TS embedded in the widespread SHRA. So will continue PROB30 for all sites, mainly in the 18z-00z time frame. Precip coverage should decrease somewhat late evening into tonight, but scattered SHRA will likely continue thru the 06z TAF period. Despite the wedge eroding, IFR conditions look likely at all sites tonight, as low-levels remain very moist.

Outlook: Another round of showers and TS on Tuesday, then gradually taper off Tue night. Drier conditions return by mid-week, but sufficient moisture will likely remain to support at least scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NCZ033-035-049-050- 063>065-501>510.
SC...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for SCZ102-103.