Friday, December4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Claremont, NC

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:13PM Friday December 4, 2020 7:30 PM EST (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:01PMMoonset 10:59AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Claremont, NC
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location: 35.73, -81.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 042341 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 641 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will rapidly cross our area this evening, bringing rain to most areas and light snow to the mountains. Another fast-moving system will bring light precipitation to the region Monday. Seasonably cool and dry weather is otherwise expected for the remainder of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. 630 PM Update . A line of moderate to heavy rain is pushing east across the FA. Due to the quickness of the system, not seeing great precip totals with a few tenths of an inch across the non/mtn and amts so far across the wrn NC mtns of arnd 1.5 inches. No expecting any hydro issues as the system will continue pushing east of the FA by 04z. The thunder threat isn/t great as sfc-based instability remains low, however, the CLT area and south could see dynamically driven cells capable of producing lightning over the next few hrs. Moderate gusty winds are also possible over the ern zones as a developing llvl jet crosses the area and showers may bring down stronger winds to the sfc.

As of 237 PM Friday . Scattered showers will move across the Upstate and wrn Piedmont/foothills of NC for the next few hours, out ahead of a developing band of precip moving in over the wrn mountains. We expect that as the forcing increases rapidly late this afternoon, the band of precip will blossom further as it spreads east over the fcst area.

The forcing will come courtesy of a compact and dynamic upper low moving steadily from the mid-MS valley this afternoon to middle TN/KY early this evening. A strengthening sub-tropical jet streak across the southeast will bring a left exit region overhead this evening as the upper low approaches and acquires something of a negative tilt. Strong mid-level dpva will arrive concurrent with the upper divergence to result in strong synoptic-scale lift. A low level jet out ahead of the system will strengthen dramatically as it translates northeastward this evening as well. All this forcing will contribute to a rapid deepening of a surface low to the lee of the Appalachians tonight. There are a number of concerns to address. The system should move through rapidly, which will cut down on precip amounts. At the present time, it does not appear that we will be able to realize even the most meager of sfc-based CAPE, which in this situation, is a very good thing given the amount of shear that will develop over the wrn Piedmont this evening. Will not rule out some elevated storms, but without any of them rooted to the boundary layer, our chances for severe weather are very limited. Model guidance keeps a shallow stable boundary layer across metro Charlotte, that will effectively provide some insulation from the winds which are expected to stream overhead at around 3k-5k feet. We will not rule out some heavier showers bringing some gusty winds to the sfc briefly. This will have to be watched carefully for the development of a gravity wave east of the mtns, which sometimes occurs in the wake of a strongly-forced and deepening sfc low. Winds will likely become strong at the highest elevations this evening as the low passes, but not to the extent that an advisory is warranted at this point. Colder air moving in behind the low will change precip over to snow at the high elevations along the TN border this evening, but the moisture pulls out rapidly on Saturday, which should keep snowfall below advisory criteria. We should clear out rapidly later tonight east of the mtns. Saturday looks like a sunny and breezy winter day as high pressure builds in from the west. Temps should be right around normal.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 230 PM Friday: Overall, there have not been significant changes made to the previous forecast in the current package with respect to the southern stream system that impacts our area late Sunday night through early Tuesday morning. Disagreement amongst the model guidance has not changed appreciably from the overnight runs with notable differences in timing and forcing still reducing overall confidence in the sensible weather impacts. Therefore, the forecast still advertises a period of mountain snow beginning overnight Sunday as the attendant surface low treks across the Deep South within the southern stream jet. This light snowfall will transition to a modest northwest flow event Monday afternoon as a potent 540mb closed low drops into the central Appalachians. East of the mountains, without appreciable CAA ahead of the southern stream system, and wet bulb temperatures above freezing, any precip that develops on the northern extent of the system early Monday morning is expected to be a chilly light rain at this time. Of course, this will continue to be watched. The ECMWF/Canadian/NAM solutions remain faster than the GFS and move southern stream precip by the area early Monday afternoon which is about 3-6 hours faster than the GFS. The forecast generally supports the consensus with regards to timing. Lacking appreciable moisture flux, all models are in agreement that QPF will be light.

With the Ohio Valley closed low dropping rapidly SE into the Appalachians, northern stream phasing still looks to occur generally east of our area Monday afternoon. As northwest upslope flow forcing establishes itself over the mountains Monday afternoon, lapse rates may be steep enough, when combined with favorable vorticity advection, to support convective shower activity over the Piedmont, primarily where any convergence zones set up downstream of the mountain ridges. These zones will be highly dependent on wind direction, but the GFS and the NAM are suggesting fingers of very light precip developing from the Savannah River Valley to the I-26 corridor Monday afternoon and evening. By this time, with CAA starting to develop, NAM/GFS profiles and wet bulb temperatures suggest that a transition to snow cannot be ruled out within these showers should they develop, especially north and east of the Saluda River Valley. Overall, low-level dry air is rather unimpressive at this time to support appreciable wet bulbing, and SBCAPE values remain below 100 J/kg (a decent threshold to watch for stronger dynamic cooling), but we are still several days out and this will bear some watching.

For the short-term period, we are currently expecting light snow accumulations over the mountain ridges through early Tuesday morning of up to 2-3" in isolated locations with no accumulations elsewhere. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal Sunday and chillier on Monday, especially where CAA will be strongest behind the southern system over the mountains, where temperatures will peak about 10 degrees below normal. East of the mountains Monday's high temperatures are forecasted to peak in the upper 40s north and lower 50s south, but this was below model blends and we expect the forecast highs to trend cooler with successive packages.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 230 PM Fri: With the departing upper low on Tuesday, conditions will improve quickly and set us up for a seasonably cool and dry remainder to the work week. Models are in general agreement that another potent shortwave will dive SE within the NW flow aloft and cross the region sometime Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. However, there will be no moisture to work with and outside of the possibility of some gusty winds mixing down over the higher elevations Tuesday night, the shortwave will be a non-event. Thereafter, widespread ridging will overtake the eastern US, and allow our temperatures to moderate nicely into Thursday and Friday, with highs possibly reaching 4-6 degrees above normal, which is equivalent to the upper 50s to near 60 east of the mountains.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: A band of light to moderate showers crossing the fcst area is lowering CIGS and VSBY into the MVFR/IFR range while areas across the west are seeing lowering CIGS in a highly moist airmass behind a sfc low. Expect these CIGS to improve as drier air mixes in from the NW thru 04z or so. Not expecting a great thunder threat at KCLT as the main convg line moves in, but sw/ly to nw/ly winds will likely gust in the low to mid 20 kt range thru 03z. Improving flight cats across all TAF sites after midnight, with moderate nw/ly gusts likely at KAVL. Winds shud remain strong enuf to offset a morning fog threat over most terminals, yet MVFR to IFR VSBY may occur occasionally before sunrise at KAVL.

Outlook: VFR for most of the weekend. Moisture will return Sunday night with a ceiling restriction likely on Monday as another low pressure system lifts out of the Gulf and up the Atlantic Coast.

Confidence Table .

23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z KCLT Med 78% High 90% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 89% Med 75% High 80% High 94% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . JMP NEAR TERM . PM/SBK SHORT TERM . JMP LONG TERM . JMP AVIATION . SBK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 99 mi101 min SE 6 G 8.9 63°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC10 mi36 minNE 43.00 miHeavy Rain52°F50°F95%1010.8 hPa
Hickory, Hickory Regional Airport, NC13 mi38 minN 64.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist49°F46°F93%1009.4 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC17 mi36 minN 07.00 miHeavy Rain53°F51°F94%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSVH

Wind History from SVH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmSW4SW4S3S3SW5S4SW4SW3CalmS3SW3SW4CalmW3CalmS4S5CalmCalmNE3NE5NE4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4S5S6SW7S5SW5CalmCalmCalmSW4
2 days agoW6W4W6NW6W4W4SW4SW4W6S3CalmSW3CalmCalmS4SW4W6W8W3W4SW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.