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FXUS62 KRAH 042003 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 300 PM EST Mon Dec 04 2023

SYNOPSIS
A couple of moisture-starved clipper lows will move across the region today and again late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the region for much of the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 PM Monday...

A vigorous upper level disturbance currently over the southern/central Appalachians will shear out as it traverses east through the Carolinas and Virginia through the remainder of the afternoon/early evening. The accompanying sfc low will share the same fate with a passage of a weak surface front/trough during the same time. Scattered showers accompanying the upper wave will become increasingly diffuse as the convection advances east into the area.
The western Piedmont counties will have the best chance of seeing a stray shower or two before the precipitation dries out/fizzles out.

After the upper wave exits to our east this evening, skies will clear out with light northerly winds. Lows in the lower to middle 30s across the NC Piedmont and northern coastal plain counties to upper 30s/near 40 south.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 250 PM Monday...

On Tuesday morning, a weak surface low will be over northern Illinois and dissipate over West Virginia during the afternoon.
Meanwhile, a surface low will form off the Outer Banks by Tuesday evening, slightly earlier than previously forecast, and continue to move further offshore. With convection-allowing models now extending into Tuesday night, and these models showing precipitation a bit farther south, especially the HRRR, expanded pops a bit farther to the south Tuesday night. The highest pops across the forecast area will be Wednesday morning across the northeast, but precipitation should be moving offshore by Wednesday afternoon. Wind gusts have come down slightly from previous forecasts for Wednesday afternoon, but gusts are still forecast to reach 15-25 mph.

Highs will be more seasonable on Tuesday, ranging from the mid 50s to the mid 60s. Similarly, lows will be more seasonable on Tuesday night, in the 30s. With the strong northwest flow on Wednesday, highs will only be in the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Wednesday night will be the coldest night in the 7 day forecast, with values between 22-32.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 203 PM Monday...

High pressure over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas early Thursday will move east, becoming positioned off the SE coast by Thursday night. In addition to fair weather on Thursday, we’ll see winds becoming southwest late in the day which will help begin a modest moderating trend into the weekend. Highs Thursday will still be several degrees below normal, ranging from 49-55, coolest north.
Lows Thursday night in the low-mid 30s.

The next upper trough will be emerging east of the Rockies during the day Friday, and clouds will gradually be on the increase thanks to moist SW flow ahead of the trough, but overall another fair weather day Friday for our area with high pressure extended across the Carolinas from its center offshore, and warmer yet with highs from 59 north to 62 south... which is about 10 deg warmer than Thursday.

Clouds will continue to increase and lower on Saturday as the aforementioned trough and assoc sfc cold front will be crossing the Miss and TN valleys during the daytime. A band of pre-frontal showers will approach central NC late on Saturday, so while the daylight hours on Saturday will be dry, PoPs in our forecast will be on the increase Saturday night with high chance or low likely PoPs by Sunday morning. The front will finally cross on Sunday, thus we will need moderate or high PoPs right through late Sunday. It’s worth noting that vigorous prefrontal S/SW flow may briefly advect some instability into our area Saturday night, so will need to keep an eye on instability trends and if this continues we may need to add some thunder to our weather grids for Saturday night and Sunday.
Temps will be warm on Saturday and Sunday morning (prefrontal airmass), but cooling back down again late Sunday behind the front.
The sky should clear out by Monday with cooler drier air moving into our area behind the front. Finally, it’s worth noting that it may be a bit breezy to windy at times Saturday night in a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the front... gust up to 25-30kt possible.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1240 PM Monday...

An upper level disturbance and attendant weak sfc front will traverse the area through the early evening. No significant weather(NSW) with the moisture starved system, with flight conditions expected to remain VFR. Light and variable winds ahead of the system will become northerly overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue on Tuesday.

Outlook: A vigorous upper level trough will cross the area late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. VFR rain/showers is possible as the system moves through. Otherwise, dry VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the work week. Additionally, gusty NWLY winds of 20 to 25kts is expected on Wednesday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Bannermans Branch
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Mon -- 02:54 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:30 AM EST     1.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:32 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:49 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:42 PM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:48 PM EST     Moonrise
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Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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