Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Apex, NC

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 145 PM Thursday...

Windy and Dry Today

Several upper level disturbances embedded within the broad cyclonic flow aloft that's associated with a dual low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes and Northeast US will rotate across the area through early Friday. At the surface, a reinforcing cold front, currently approaching the western Piedmont, will move east through the area this afternoon.

The feature weather headline today will be the windy conditions. As daytime heating commences, deep vertical mixing(7-8k ft) will bring down some of the day 35 to 45 kts found at the toped mixed layer to produce frequent gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected, occasionally gusting to 35 mph at times. An enhancement of orographic cirrus has abated with these high level cloud cover expected to scatter out over the next few hours. Highs ranging from mid/upper 70s north to lower lower/mid 80s south.

In terms of rain chances, mostly dry conditions should prevail.
The deep westerly flow in place will limit moisture and instability across the area( PWATs only around 50% of normal. As a result, weak lift from the passage of the front and intermittent shortwave energy swinging through the area will yield a little more than a few clouds/virga or a passing sprinkle/isolated shower, especially across southern NC late Thursday night/early Friday morning in response to increasing upper jet divergence.

Gusts should subside this evening and tonight. However, we'll keep a slight stirring of the winds owing to the CAA. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 50s, with some upper 40s possible in the typically colder locations over the northern Piedmont.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 PM Thursday...

* Cooler and dry day on Friday.

After the exit of the frontal system today, cool high pressure will build in to the west on Friday. This will allow for deep northwesterly winds to bring cool and dry air into the region.
Temperatures should be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Highs are expected in the 70s, with low 70s in the north to upper 70s in the south. Lows will dip into the mid/upper 40s in the north to the mid 50s in the south.

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LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 325 PM Thursday...

Sat/Sat night: Dry weather is likely to hold, as we remain in a fast NW steering flow, with the surface frontal zone holding to our S, from OK across SC, while high pressure extends into NC from the NW.
We may see some late-day and evening cloudiness, esp across the S, as the remnant clouds from upstream S-Plains convection tracks SE with the thermal wind across SC and S NC, but we should remain dry given the lack of opportunity for low level return flow. Thicknesses are projected to stay below normal, so expect highs in the 70s to near 80, followed by lows mostly in the 50s.

Sun/Sun night: Shower/storm chances will increase by late Sun, as the northern stream low over Maine on Sat drifts E, weakening our mid level flow. This should allow the frontal zone to nudge back N into NC, while a surface low instigated by a passing MCV and tracking along the front acts on increasing PW to support rain chances, highest across the S and SE late in the evening and into the early overnight hours, although this timing could change with time and newer model runs. Increasing clouds and light precip arriving in the afternoon from the west should limit heating esp across the N, so expect high in the 70s over most of the CWA, except some low 80s SE, although these readings depend on how far N the front gets into the CWA Lows in the low 50s N to low 60s SE.

Mon-Thu: While it's unlikely to be raining all of time, pops are expected to be greater than climatology from Memorial Day through Tue night, as a northern stream trough gradually deepens over the Dakotas and Upper Midwest resulting in weak cyclonic flow across the mid and lower Miss Valley, Mid South, and Carolinas, which will allow for increasing influence by upstream perturbations and MCVs amidst increasing PW to 1.5-2.0". After the high rain chances Sun night, there may be a brief lull in pops Mon morning into the afternoon, but the uptick in dynamic forcing for ascent and deepening moisture should support good chance to likely pops late Mon through at least Tue evening. As surface high pressure continues to extend into the area Mon, we could see a decent CAD event which would keep temps quite cool, esp over the Piedmont, and will have highs there Mon around 70 to the lower 70s (and this may not be cool enough), with mid-upper 70s far SE. With the high rain chances to reinforcing stability Tue and a gradual exit of the parent high off the Mid Atlantic coast, the wedge regime is likely to last through Tue, especially if a surface low develops along the wedge front as some models depict, which would enhance the NE flow into the Piedmont. Expect highs again around 70/low 70s (at best) in the NW, with upper 70s/low 80s SE. Model solutions with the overall pattern start to diverge markedly by mid week, particularly with the Upper Midwest low, with some easing it eastward over the Great Lakes, resulting in an accelerating and increasingly cyclonic flow spreading E into the Carolinas, while others hold it over the Upper Midwest and shear its energy E into the Northeast states. Will have low-confidence near-climo pops Wed/Thu for now, with temps heading back closer to normal. -GIH

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 140 PM Thursday...

TAF period: Orographically enhanced cirrus will scatter out over the next few hours. Upper level disturbances moving through the region will produce intervals of of mid/high clouds through tonight.
Otherwise, there is high confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period owing to deep westerly flow across the region.

The frequent 20-30kt W-NWLY gusts will subside this evening with milder gust of 15-20kts expected on Friday.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions expected through Saturday night. Shower and thunderstorms and associated sub-VFR restrictions return Sunday into early next week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.