Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 3:06 PM   Moonset 3:43 AM

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FXUS62 KRAH 190904 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 350 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak backdoor front will drop into the area from the north tonight, then lift back north as a warm front Friday afternoon. A cold front will cross the region late Friday night into early Saturday, and then settle just to our south late Saturday. A wave of low pressure will track along the front Sunday into Monday, bringing unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM Friday...

Confidence in the coverage and precise timing of the shower/storm chances today/tonight is lower than usual, based on a few factors. A poorly defined surface pattern persists over the Carolinas, with baggy low pressure over the SW Piedmont while a weak backdoor front has progressed well into our NE sections, bringing a stratus deck in from the NE associated with narrow but strong high pressure nosing in, its northeasterly flow reinforced by a strong low E of the Delmarva. This backdoor front is still expected to lift slowly back northward and dissipate by this afternoon, with the stratus deck mixing out and dissolving, as the high to the NE loses its grip. A weak perturbation passing through this morning will spread sct-bkn mid and high clouds into our area, partly convective debris clouds from convection from S MI through the Ohio Valley into W TN that is associated with an incoming strong surface cold front stretching from NW OH to central TX, and beneath a broad but strong mid level trough axis extending from James Bay through the Midwest. This mid level trough has with it a fairly strong mid-upper level speed max tracking through its base, although much of this wind aloft will hold to our NW through tonight, with the 80-100 kt mid level speeds holding N of the Ohio River, while our 500 mb winds are likely to peak at just 30-40 kts this evening, adequate but not impressive.
And there is little evidence of anything more than just very weak upper divergence potential this evening. Another factor limiting coverage today is the low level moisture, which will be minimal today; while surface dew points are expected to creep up into the mid-upper 50s far N and lower 60s far S, the 925-850 mb flow will be quite weak, with little to no moisture flux, which will keep most cloud bases high (except for this morning's stratus in the NE, of course). But a few factors do support isolated light showers midday- early afternoon evolving to scattered showers and storms from mid to late afternoon into the evening, including decent heating (through mostly thin or sct clouds) pushing afternoon MUCAPE to 500-1000 J/kg, along with improving PW (packed mostly above 850 mb, though).
The mid level flow, while not high, may still be sufficient to support organized convection, with 25-35 kt of deep layer bulk shear expected. Steep surface-based lapse rates could contribute to high DCAPE, boosting downburst wind potential. What this means in terms of sensible weather is that we should see a few showers moving into the NW by early afternoon (including some developing and moving off the higher terrain), with this convection growing upscale to scattered storms progressing E through the area, most likely from mid afternoon through mid evening according to rough average timing from the CAMs and the UH plots from the HRRR. Straight line winds will be the greatest threat with any storms that can become robust and deep. Activity should shift into the Coastal Plain and E Sandhills while diminishing with loss of heating by late evening or near midnight, with lingering clouds but largely dry weather expected after 1 or 2 AM. Expect highs today from the upper 70s N to the mid 80s S, followed by upper 50s to mid 60s for lows. -GIH

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 AM Friday...

The weekend will start out partly to mostly cloudy before becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy with slight rain chances easing in. The cold front will have pushed into our SE sections by Sat morning and will progress SSE, settling into N SC as low pressure drifts southward into the SC Midlands. A much cooler air mass will gradually build in, although the most dense air will initially be held up by the higher terrain, allowing for good afternoon mixing and highs that will be cooler but still a bit above normal, in the 70s with near 80 in the far S. Despite the westerly mid level flow on the S side of the broad trough, PW across the S and SE, near the surface front, will remain elevated, at or over 1" through Sat night, as the noticeably cooler air finally pours in from the NNW. While forcing for ascent is largely quite weak or even absent heading into Sat night, we will see slowly improving moist upglide across the south, up and over the low level frontal zone, resulting in a reinforcing of low level stability and groundward moistening of the column, necessitating low chances for light rain, mainly S of Hwy 64, starting late Sat going through Sat night. Lows from the upper 40s N to upper 50s S. -GIH

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 219 AM Friday...

Sunday: Flow aloft turns swly Sunday and Monday increasing low-level moisture advection into the southeast. Ensembles and deterministic guidance are in pretty good agreement at this point pinning a sfc cold front, instability, and the highest anomalous moisture along the coastal areas and offshore. Rain chances will still increase throughout the day Sunday (highest POPs still across our far southeastern zones) but primarily light to moderate stratiform rain is expected through Monday morning. Sfc flow will remain nnely, promoting a cool, wet, and breezy day with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. QPF ranges from a few tenths of an inch (N) to about a half of an inch (S).

Monday through Thursday: Any lingering rain Monday morning will pull off to our east by early afternoon. A few additional scattered showers may be possible Monday afternoon/evening with the passing of a strong vort max, but overall Monday should largely be dry. Tuesday will follow suit under nwly flow aloft. By Wednesday, a sheared vorticity feature will ride through the Mid-Atlantic. This may spawn a few scattered showers, but overall coverage should be minimal. Dry weather continues under nwly flow aloft on Thursday.

Temperatures Monday will remain cooler than normal be cool in the mid 60s. Temps will rise into the mid 70s Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 205 AM Friday...

INT/GSO: VFR conditions are likely to hold through the next 24 hours at INT/GSO, with clouds thickening early this morning and remaining largely broken through this evening, but with VFR bases. Isolated showers are possible from late morning through mid afternoon (15z- 20z) at INT/GSO, followed by a potential for isolated storms into early evening (20z-02z) as a cold front approaches. Shower/storm chances will end by mid evening, as the front pushes to the E.
Surface winds will be light, under 10 kts, starting from the NE before shifting to SE, then SW, then NW after nightfall behind the front.

RDU/RWI/FAY: These sites will see a high chance of IFR to low-end MVFR stratus early this morning, especially RWI which will see these low cigs as a prevailing condition from 07z to 14z. RDU/FAY will see a shorter duration of possible IFR/low-MVFR cigs, mainly 10z to 14z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected, but with thickening clouds this morning. Isolated showers are possible starting in the mid afternoon (mostly after 18z), with a few thunderstorms possible from late afternoon through late evening (mainly 21z to 03z), ending thereafter. Surface winds will be light and variable, under 10 kts.

Looking beyond 06z Sat, sub-VFR conditions are possible across the NE and E late night through Sat morning, mainly affecting RWI/FAY, but chances are not as high as this morning. After mostly dry weather Sat (except a slight rain chance at FAY) as the front settles just to our S, a wave of low pressure tracking along the front will bring a high chance of sub-VFR conditions and rain from Sun afternoon through early Mon. Rain chances may linger esp at FAY Mon night, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected Mon through Tue. Showers/storms are possible Wed associated with an approaching cold front. -GIH

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Bannermans Branch
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Fri -- 01:06 AM EDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:39 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:24 PM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
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Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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