Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Apex, NC

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:03PM Thursday December 12, 2019 12:29 AM EST (05:29 UTC) Moonrise 5:39PMMoonset 7:33AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apex, NC
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location: 35.74, -78.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 120526 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1226 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. Cold high pressure will continue to build across the area through early today. This high will then slide offshore but continue to extend down through our area, as low pressure forms over the Gulf and tracks northeast near the coast Friday through Saturday morning.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 1030 PM Wednesday .

Update on freezing rain and rain potential for late Thursday night/early Friday.

00z/12 models beginning to roll in. Just a few notes on the new information and what we know already. The arctic surface high pressure is still forecast to be fairly progressive, yet extend SW into and over our Piedmont Damming region at the start of the event late Thursday night into Friday morning. The high is strong and cold and will have delivered dew points in the teens to start the night. With it being progressive, the cold air advection at the surface will end well before the precip. arrival toward daybreak Friday. This will leave a hybrid / in-situ CAD event potential for the Piedmont. In addition, the newer data rolling in supports the increasing warm nose aloft as the precip arrives - with either rain or light freezing rain the most likely p-type for several hours at the beginning, then all rain after mid-morning Friday for sure.

The arrival time then becomes the main problem as guidance has been in disagreement in arrival time. If the rain arrives early as the 00z/NAM now suggests around 09z or so in the Triad - this would create a narrow window of light freezing rain potential. If the precip. arrives later (say after 13z or so) as some other models suggest -then no big deal with the freezing rain as temperatures would already be warming (even when offset by evaporative cooling processes as rain intensity increases).

The latest 00z/NAM is more aggressive with the arrival of the precipitation in the western Piedmont. It also continues to show a very strong warm nose arriving, which will take the temperatures in the mid levels well above freezing with the onset of precipitation. That leaves the main weather hazard of freezing rain potential given that forecast partial thicknesses in the mid levels rising into the 1560s, 1570s and 1580s between 12z and 18z/Friday in the NW zones (very strong warm nose intrusion). The problem potential then turns to the near surface and surface layer forecast. 1000/850 partials forecast in the 1300s at 12z, rise according to the models into the 1320s and 1330s by 18z.

This strongly suggests that we turn to surface wet bulb temperature forecasts as we are expected to be in the "9" group on the Universal Partial Thickness Nomogram (rain or freezing rain depending on the wet bulb temperature). Surface wet bulb forecasts as low as the upper 20s at 09z/Fri are forecast in the NW Piedmont, rising to lower 30s by 12z, then finally mid 30s by 18z. So, a self limiting freezing rain situation as warm rain falls and takes the entire column above freezing.

Bottom line, NAM is trending faster with rain or freezing rain developing into the western Piedmont between 09z and 12z, with temperatures dipping with evaporative cooling to 32 or slightly below that by 12z, then rising above freezing between 13z and 15z. So, just the short time period of freezing rain potential around the critical morning commute in the Triad only.

Just how far east any initial light freezing rain potential will reach (likely not past Hillsborough/Siler City as wet bulb forecasts suggest for now appears most likely) is yet to be determined.

Bottom line - still looks like a minimal icing event for the NW-N Piedmont only, beginning around 4 to 6 am if the precip. (rain) arrives then - temperatures may be around 32 or even above at onset, then evaporatively cool to slightly below 32 by 800 am, before rising steadily into the mid 30s thereafter. Again, timing of arrival of the rain/freezing rain is the most critical factor as it appears now.

Much more to come as the new data rolls in tonight.

For the overnight period . clear and cold.

Skies will continue to clear or become clear overnight. Strong surface high pressure (1036+ mb) will continue to extend into NC from the northwest through the night. The surface winds will continue to become lighter and this will allow great radiational cooling in the very dry air mass. This will be especially evident overnight after the high clouds exit the east. Lows generally in the 20s expected. -PWB

The center of the parent high is expected to be over PA in the morning before drifting NE near the New England coast and over the coast of the Canadian Maritimes, propelled by a mid level shortwave trough moving through the Southern Plains toward the mid/lower Miss Valley. The surface ridge will continue to extend down through central NC during this time, ensuring dry and stable low levels. It looks like the increase in low level moisture transport with the greater low level Atlantic inflow will hold off until evening, when we will start to see stratocu advecting into our southern sections. Low level thicknesses are expected to be around 20 m below normal with weak CAA through the day, favoring highs 2-3 categories below normal, mainly in the mid 40s to near 50. -GIH

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 235 PM Wednesday .

. Brief period of freezing rain across the NW Piedmont early Friday morning before changing over to rain; minimal impacts expected .

Little change to the overall pattern. Still expect the strong 1040 mb high over the mid-Atlantic Thursday morning to lift northeast toward/through New England by 00Z Friday. The high will continue ridging southwestward into central NC, setting up a CAD wedge over the area. Although skies will be clear and dewpoints in the upper teens/low 20s are expected to start the period, the wedge will become pinched/elongated NE-SW as the parent high lifts away. As a result, return flow off the Atlantic will advect increasingly moist and warm air into the area Thursday night into Friday increasing cloud cover, temperatures and chances for precipitation. The main forcing for precipitation Thursday night and Friday will be isentropic lift with warm air advecting into the region over the wedge of cold air at the surface. Meanwhile, an inverted trough off the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coast, extending northeastward from a developing surface low over the Gulf.

The threat for a brief period of freezing rain will be limited to along and west of the I-85 corridor. Do not expect saturation in the dendritic growth zone, thus no sleet or snow it expected. However, within the lingering CAD wedge where temps and dewpoints will be lowest, wet bulb temperatures will be below freezing for a few hours. There is expected to be a 4-6 degree warm nose above the surface (H8-H9) where the best saturation will be, while a shallow dry layer is expected at the surface. Precipitation into the dry surface layer will help temperatures cool to the wet bulb temperatures, resulting in a brief window where freezing rain is possible. The most likely time frame for FZRA will be between 6A and 8A and be limited to primarily the Triad and points north and west. Temperatures should rise above freezing Friday morning, with increasing rain chances and melting of any freezing rain that may have managed to accumulate. No significant accumulation is expected, however some elevated surfaces could see a light accumulation of ice before it melts. Road temperatures will likely remain too warm to accumulate ice, though bridges, especially in areas that remain shaded most of the day and are not highly traveled, may cool to around freezing.

Elsewhere, precipitation should be all rain, moving in from the southwest as isentropic lift increases Thursday night/Friday morning. Outside of the wedge airmass to the northwest, temperatures will be allowed to rise as warm, moist air is advected into the area. The coastal trough and Gulf low will strengthen on Friday, with the low sliding northeast along the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coast late Friday into Friday night. As the low approaches the Carolinas, the wedge should largely erode and more convectively driven rainfall moves into the area. Friday eve/night will have the more significant rainfall amounts across central NC. Highs Friday will vary greatly from NW to SE, from upper 30s to mid 50s. Lows will be similar to highs, albeit a few degrees lower, mid 30s NW to low 50s SE. When all is said and done, total liquid precipitation for the period Thursday night through Friday night could range from an inch to an inch and a half in most places.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 320 PM Wednesday .

Rain chances will continue through the first part of Sat as the negatively tilted mid level trough shifts NE through the region. The surface low should have moved NE into the Delmarva area by Sat morning, leaving the lingering frontal zone extending down through central/eastern NC. The surface low will continue its swift northward movement toward the St Lawrence Valley Sat, pushing the frontal zone eastward, but we'll maintain a moist column through the early part of the day with above normal PW, necessitating good chance pops early, trending down from S to N by Sat afternoon and evening as the trough axis pivots overhead and to our NE. We should see minimal post frontal cooling as the parent high will be centered well over the Upper Midwest, so expect above normal highs in the mid 50s to around 60, and lows Sat night in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

A brief quiet period is expected Sun into early Mon, with an initial flat flow backing over NC in response to a trough digging over the Rockies and Plains. The front will start to retreat back N into NC as a warm front, and while a weak stable pool will remain to its N over the NW Piedmont into Mon, the departure and weakening of the parent surface high and the lack of preceding clouds or precip to lock in the stable pool should make it vulnerable to the warming advancing from the S. Thicknesses will continue above normal as ridging builds over and off the Southeast coast, so expect mild highs Sun/Mon, in the mid 50s to lower 60s, and perhaps some mid 60s in our SE Mon.

The approaching trough will merge with northern stream energy into a large positively tilted trough late Mon through Wed. The warm front should continue moving north Mon night, with a surface low moving NE over the S Appalachians and across VA, dragging the cold front through our area early Tue morning. Rain chances will start late Mon in our NW, peaking Mon night into early Tue before tapering back down W to E during the day Tue. As the mid level trough axis will still be to our NW through Tue night, we should see drier air moving in late Tue but considerable mid and high clouds should hold in the E into Tue night, followed by dry weather and fair skies Wed. -GIH

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 1226 AM Thursday .

Mostly clear skies/light winds/P6SM vsbys to prevail at all sites through at least Thursday evening. There will be a gradual thickening and lowering of ceilings toward the end of the TAF period with MVFR cigs sneaking into the Triad sites just before 06Z Friday. vsbys and precip not expected to become an issue until the 06Z-12Z time period Friday morning.

With the upcoming event on Friday, expect widespread sub-VFR conditions during the day at all sites. At onset, there will likely be a brief mix of rain and freezing rain at INT and GSO, but rain elsewhere. Rain will prevail as the dominant p-type after 15Z at all sites. Expect periods of MVFR cigs on Saturday as a trailing shortwave moves through the area, followed by VFR cigs/vsbys on Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds across the area.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Badgett/Hartfield NEAR TERM . Badgett SHORT TERM . KC LONG TERM . Hartfield AVIATION . Leins


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC11 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair30°F26°F85%1034.2 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC17 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair27°F27°F100%1034.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRDU

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Last 24hrNW4N4N8N85465N7N8
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2 days ago3NE4E5SW3NE6NW5CalmS5S3W3SE34S9S8SW10S8S8SW10SW10SW9SW6SW9SW10SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 03:06 AM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:58 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:14 PM EST     1.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:49 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.611.21.31.210.70.50.20-0.10.10.61.11.41.51.51.31.10.80.60.30.10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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