Friday, December4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Apex, NC

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:03PM Friday December 4, 2020 6:16 PM EST (23:16 UTC) Moonrise 8:52PMMoonset 10:50AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apex, NC
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location: 35.74, -78.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 042118 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 418 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A developing area of low pressure over the Deep South will strengthen as it moves NE across the Carolinas this evening and then off the southern Mid-Atlantic coast early Saturday. High pressure will follow with drier and cool conditions for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 322 PM Friday .

. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will race east through the area this evening, bringing a brief period of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds to central NC .

A potent shortwave trough moving into the Tn Valley will progress ENEWD across the southern Appalachians and the Carolinas this evening and overnight, becoming negatively tilted as it exits off the southern Mid-Atlantic coast early Saturday morning. Latest sfc analysis indicates we are just starting to see the development of a surface low over upstate GA. In response to the very strong shortwave dynamics and synoptic lift, this low will begin to undergo rapid deepening as it races ENEWD between 00 to 06z this evening. Prior to the arrival of the surface low, a coastal warm front will move slightly inland, but looks to stay east of the area. As such, the associated maritime air and instability will stay east as well, greatly limiting the severe threat later this evening as the surface low and attendant cold front sweep through the area.

Everything looks on track as a strong but quick moving system will result in a very wet evening/early overnight period, with the bulk of the convection/rain crossing the area in a 6 hour period(00 to 06z). In the wake of the main convective band, a trailing, comma head/wrap around area of showers will quickly shirt across the northern zones, and should exit the area just before daybreak.

Although the fast forward speed of the low pressure system will limit qpf amounts, the strong,deep forcing and convective nature of the precip will result in a brief period of moderate to heavy rain showers, which could lead to some very localized minor flooding in your typical urban/poor drainage areas. Rainfall totals are expected to range from near an inch across the northern/northwestern Piedmont to one-third of an inch across the far SE zones.

Due to limited instability of only 100 to 200 J/Kg of MLCAPE, The severe threat appears very minimal(non-zero threat) and confined to the far SE counties(Sampson/Wayne). However, given the strong low- level wind fields, even the heavier showers will have the potential to produce wind gusts 35 to 40 mph.

Finally, the models are showing a decent signal of a sting jet developing on the back side of the exiting, rapidly deepening sfc low(bombogenesis), and along the southern periphery of the comma head rain band expected to move across the northern/northeastern counties between 08 to 12z. Thus, these counties could see a 2 to 3 hour period of equally strong, if not stronger wind gusts than the preceding convective wind gusts.

CAA in the wake of the cold front that is progged to exit the area shortly after 06Z, will govern overnight lows. Lows ranging upper 30s/near 40 NW to mid/upper 40s SE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 335 PM Friday .

By daybreak Saturday, rain chances will end and skies will quickly clear as the low pressure system gets picked up by a northern stream trough and rapidly moves northeast of the area off the Delmarva coast. The low will be rapidly deepening as it departs the area, and based on high-res model guidance, wind gusts of 20-30 mph are still expected in the morning and early afternoon hours. This strong NW flow will also advect much drier air into the area, with dew points crashing down into the 30s through the day. Forecast high temperatures continue to be lower-50s NW to upper-50s SE. On Saturday night, surface high pressure will result in clear skies and diminishing winds, which should allow for good radiational cooling conditions, with lows in the upper-20s to lower-30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 415 PM Friday .

Sunday will be dry with surface high pressure over the area. Skies will be sunny, before clouds begin to increase in the late afternoon and evening hours. Highs in the lower-to-mid-50s are expected. Then, the next storm system is expected to bring precipitation to central NC from Sunday night into Monday. The setup looks relatively complex, and models continue to differ on how it will evolve. On Sunday evening, two shortwave troughs will be over the eastern US, one near the Ohio Valley and the other over the lower Mississippi Valley. Then a strong closed upper low will dive SE out of the Great Lakes and potentially phase with the aforementioned shortwaves. The 12z ECMWF is slower with the northern shortwave, allowing the closed upper low to phase with it, resulting in precipitation starting sooner across central NC (Sunday night). On the 12z GFS, the northern shortwave escapes to the east and phasing between the closed upper low and southern shortwave doesn't occur until later, so precipitation is lighter and doesn't start until Monday morning. However, a significant minority of GFS ensembles do have precipitation across the area Sunday night. For now just have slight to low chance POPs Sunday night, increasing to high chance in the east on Monday as the closed upper low moves over the area and the coastal low develops.

At this time, it appears the cold air arrives late enough that precipitation on Monday will be mostly of the liquid variety. While 850 mb temperatures may be below freezing across a good part of the area, the low levels still look relatively warm, with the 1300m 1000- 850mb thickness line north of central NC Sunday night into Monday morning, and surface high temperatures in the 40s. However, a few wet snowflakes can't be ruled out late Monday afternoon and Monday evening as the precipitation is ending, especially across the northern Piedmont. Even if this does occur, any impacts would be low.

Dry weather and mostly sunny skies will then prevail from Tuesday through the end of the period as surface high pressure builds over the Southeast US. As for temperatures, they are expected to gradually warm through the week as the upper trough begins to move away and the flow becomes more zonal. Forecast highs in the upper- 40s on Tuesday increase to upper-50s to lower-60s by Thursday and Friday. Wednesday morning appears to have the most favorable radiational cooling conditions, so continue to forecast lows in the mid-to-upper-20s, increasing to 30s by late week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 140 PM Friday .

Strengthening warm moist air advection in advance of a deepening sfc low that will race NEWD through the area between 00 to 06z will result in the development of widespread IFR to MVFR flight conditions in showers and possibly a few, mostly elevated thunderstorms. Given such strong low-level wind fields, some of the heavier could still produce wind gusts of 30 to 35 kts, especially INVOF KFAY. Abrupt SW to NE clearing will occur behind the surface low and attendant cold front, between 06 to 12z. Also a period of strong WNWLY post-frontal wind gusts are expected during this time frame, especially at KRDU and KRWI, with breezy NWLY conditions expected into the day on Saturday.

The outlook beyond 18z/Saturday . VFR conditions will continue from late Saturday through Sunday as high pressure builds overhead. A series of strong upper disturbances will support a chance of light precip and sub-VFR conditions Sunday night and into Monday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



SYNOPSIS . CBL/Badgett NEAR TERM . CBL SHORT TERM . Danco LONG TERM . Danco AVIATION . CBL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC11 mi26 minSSE 510.00 miOvercast60°F51°F72%1014.3 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC17 mi22 minN 010.00 miOvercast58°F53°F84%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRDU

Wind History from RDU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SW4SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmSW4SW5W6SW6SW7SW6SW8SW6SW8SW10SW9SW9SW9S8S6S5S5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5Calm5SW10SW8SW6SW5SW6S6S6
2 days agoW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Fri -- 12:45 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:20 AM EST     1.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:42 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:32 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:28 PM EST     1.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:50 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.40.71.11.21.21.10.90.60.40.20.10.10.30.81.21.51.51.41.20.90.70.5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.